Shaftesbury Share Discussion Threads

[nickrl] 22/10/2020 08:48

hindsight your well below 450 now but are small shareholders deemed to be a qualifying shareholder or is this another one of those for the big boys only?

As two biggest shareholders have declared they will participate and they say thei will deal with the following worst case scenario of

" A decline in total rent collection to 25% of contracted rent from 1 October 2020 to 30 June 2021, rising to 35% and 45% in the quarters ending 30 September 2021 and 31 December 2021 respectively"

although its currently not as good as this so they are optimistic but will still have access to an RCF.

Im guessing CAPC will sit on the sidelines for a while yet before they decide whether to take the lot but still surprised they haven't engineered a merger of equals or maybe this is a precursor move by SHB to facilitate that?

There is more detail about current trading in the body of the document but have only skimmed it so far.

[spectoacc] 22/10/2020 07:43

A buy around the rescue rights price of £4?

Gutsy from CAPC, but did they have a choice?

[hindsight] 20/10/2020 07:58

Hindsight, how are you basing your 'buy price' level?
From basic charting

Edit - Credit where due , you did call Resi right

[konradpuss] 19/10/2020 20:26

Was in the West End and Victoria last Wednesday. It was a ghost town.

Gearing is a wonderful thing when asset prices are rising.

Hindsight, how are you basing your 'buy price' level?

I have no accurate idea currently where their portfolio value is so I have no certain idea of a 'buy price'. I am only certain of their debt level.

[hindsight] 19/10/2020 11:40

Looking for 450p to rebuy sold ones

They are trading O.K. and loving it.

I would not put this as bad news for SHB, rather have tenants trading ok on turnover rents than empty property. Seems to me SHB have plenty of cash to cover any interest/overheads shortfall but are the bond holders going to wave the income covenants at present. They should be made to as part of the Government moritorium but its not clear

[essentialinvestor] 19/10/2020 09:11

With further trading restrictions being imposed and the possibility of another national
lockdown, all be it will be called by a different name, it looks a murky
outlook for much of the sector currently. Moritorium could remain in place
for another 6 plus months.

[jl9] 16/10/2020 20:48

They were priced for perfection going into covid. Plenty of air has come out since but I'm inclined to agree that a brutal reckoning lies ahead.

[konradpuss] 16/10/2020 19:27

I heard an interesting story. The wine bar I will not mention the name of who is a tenant of Shaftesbury is celebrating.

Around the turn of the year they were going to 'give back the keys' as they were just working for the landlord, oh! and Shaftesbury were plotting a big increase in their rent. Low and behold 'Covid 19 came along and Shaftesbury said "lets give you a turn over rent lease".

They are trading O.K. and loving it.

I therefore reaffirm my view that Shaftesbury will bottom at two quid a share.

[essentialinvestor] 28/9/2020 15:37

CAPCO appears to have sold another asset, if reading thst correctly?.

[nickrl] 27/9/2020 22:56

SHB philanthropy to its tenants reflects the reality of the situation and another example of a landlord putting its tenants above short term shareholder interest that needs to be stuffed under Alok Sharma. Its a shame they are silent on what the issue is over the 26% of uncollected rents as presumably an element is from the cant pay wont pay brigade but without this income they will find it difficult to sustain rent forbearance let alone restore a dividend which could be years away.

I guess with CAPC being a long term interested party it will keep a prop under this but Im sure they would like to engineer a merger of equals.

[konradpuss] 25/9/2020 19:21

In the update today the company tells of buying three strategic properties.

They then go on to say they have collected 41% of rent with a further 10% promised in respect of the last quater. The remainder - who knows.

Surely they should be planning for the worst with their borrowings?

I will stick by my opinon of where the share price could end up.

[konradpuss] 15/9/2020 20:10

undervalue, it a matter of how long that takes.

It's back to the the 'bird in the hand or bird in the bush'.

I think that it is down to two things with Shaftesbury, its debt and how much values will receed until things get better.

[undervaluedassets] 15/9/2020 11:15

London Prime property recovers in the end.

Meanwhile Mr Market is offering investors a chance to get in at a nice price.

That is my thesis .. plain and simple

[essentialinvestor] 24/8/2020 21:05

Konrad, watched the recent CLS results conference call and they appear
to be looking for opportunities in the UK market. UK is the market they see as interesting atm.

[essentialinvestor] 24/8/2020 09:00

SREI might be worth a look under 30 pence, if available.

We may be due another leg down on the London heavy REITS.

[essentialinvestor] 24/8/2020 08:49

SHB does have some residential, it's a small part of the portfolio.


Added to CLS this morning.

[hindsight] 23/8/2020 14:48

Not sure at what £/M2 point conversions to residential will happen, but would think any office at the planning stage will be getting re drawn to apply for residential
The resident population of London has grown from 7.2m in 2001 to 8.9m in 2018

[konradpuss] 22/8/2020 18:59

Essential, for Shaftesbury to become a 'recovery play' it has to hit the bottom.

Sorry to say, quite a way off as there is no market evidence on transactions.

If, as the valuers will require this, they are currently behind the curve.

I am not a perma bear however I must have market evidence to be able to form a rational view on values.

[essentialinvestor] 22/8/2020 17:13

Traded DLN during the week, a very small amount. Derwent has bounced
from the 27.70/90 area on so many occasions recently.

Nick has mentioned £24/25, which looks a safer longer
term area. I don't hold GPOR atm either.

Would expect fundamentals will look terrible next year as the economic fallout ripples outward, however also anticipate share prices to begin to firm up well ahead of better news.

Helical have sold a London property post the COVID hit, it was jointly owned
and their share was under £10 million.

I'm not that focussed on the London market, or have any particular conviction (outside of thinking SHB will be a cracking recovery play at some point).
Attention is on finding stocks where short term value may be available.
Intend to switch to buy and hold sometime over the next few months.

Expected equity market volatility over the summer which did not happen.
Hoping that may develop over the next couple of months, but there is little sign atm.

[konradpuss] 22/8/2020 07:05

Essential, property cycles are longer generally than your time scale. Where are the positives going to come from? New lettings, rents going up, yields sharpening, build costs going down, development finance becoming cheaper.

Looking forward, if you are say Great Portland or Derwent London, you have survived, however you have quite a bit of over rented stock. You might find some bargains at that point however there will be a sea of vacant space on the market.

I think most medium to large and also some small companies will do as BP and will shrink their office foot print by 50%.

Now who is going to fill that space? It will perhaps go residential.

What you are watching is a seismic shift without a previous parallel.

I understand you are saying there might be a little discount left on NAV with some yield in a few months, however I just wonder if the risk is worth it?

[essentialinvestor] 21/8/2020 21:46

Nick, valid rationa; within the next 6 months best guess - I reserve the right to be wrong ).

[nickrl] 21/8/2020 21:39

EI for sure if any propco can withstand capital falls and find a new (lower) level of sustainable rental income that can support a dividend yield of say 3-4% agree that will be desirable for income seeking funds. Its where that point is - my view remains conditions for another leg down are still dominant but if HMG/HMT are remaining in the ring can easily flip the other way.

[essentialinvestor] 21/8/2020 21:14

Nick, Great Portland have been been explicit in warning of
capital value falls to come, they also have about 30% retail exposure.

The flip side to this is a wall of money looking for even nominal returns
with continuing ZIRP. So when the sector turn comes, it will be very rapid imv.