Shaftesbury Share Discussion Threads

[hindsight] 02/12/2021 13:14

Xmas parties and flights being cancelled flowing to turnover rents
But clear price has support at these levels from trading activity, without mass tourist return, once omi out of the way
Surprised paying divi but suppose think match gilts

[davidro77] 02/12/2021 11:04

Why has the market reacted so badly to the statement? It seemed overall quite positive?

[essentialinvestor] 01/12/2021 10:21

Is that the NAV low point?.

[essentialinvestor] 06/11/2021 14:39

With the combination of Norges and Capco the CEO would have little choice left.

Yesterday's Pfizer antiviral news is pivotal for a resumption of normality
over the next 12-18 months.

[nickrl] 06/11/2021 14:32

EI always a possibility CAPCO will come for the rest although I would have thought a merger of equals would be more productive for both parties but would Bicknell go quietly. Still want to see how much rent is leveraged to t/o and I feel this one will continue on a rollercoaster but been good for trough to peak trades.

[essentialinvestor] 06/11/2021 14:04

SHB looks a very nice 2022 recovery play to me,
with a bit of bid possibility thrown in.

[phillis] 04/11/2021 09:43

nudging along

[boonkoh] 24/10/2021 00:22

Problem with turnover based rents is the unpredictability of total rents quarterly or yearly and therefore the dividend. Which was one of the main attractions of REITS.

[hindsight] 21/10/2021 10:35

Better than I expected too. Main concern for me, was they got to the other side of covid without any dillution and this seems realistic now

Edit Ties in with BCPT today

[nickrl] 20/10/2021 20:06

Phillis there metrics have improved faster than i thought although how much rent is now t/o related isn't being revealed.

[phillis] 20/10/2021 17:58

Absent another lockdown this recovery is underway

[hindsight] 23/8/2021 09:40

nickrl, thanks, Im not expecting a dividend here and would much rather they focus on NAV creation in 2 years time. My main bugbear, as has been said by many on here, director salaries too high

[hindsight] 23/8/2021 09:35

Think this could have legs, Boohoo brought a West End HQ for a reason


- Healthy occupier interest for our shops, including online retailers looking for physical space in our areas to provide consumer experience, interaction and engagement and further enhance their brand identity.

[nickrl] 23/8/2021 09:27

On the face of it todays trading update is positive with significant reduction in voids but i would suggest the telling statement

"Whilst letting terms are generally in line with ERVs and our expectations, there is a greater degree of short-term income uncertainty in those retail leases which include a significant element of turnover-related rent"

casts a shadow over how the valuers will assess NAV at year end.

Then you have the rental position where there still providing waivers to nearly half the contracted rent and even then the tenants they are billing still aren't fully paying as they've realised only 3/4 of it. Yes the position is slowly improving but at cash level they didn't cover the measly dividend at half year so unless they want to use the £230m cash they have in the bank to bankroll the dividend can't see it increasing.

Anyhow someone likes them as share price hasn't gone South!

[essentialinvestor] 28/6/2021 14:34

konrad, appreciate your updates here and sector insight.

SHB recovered quickly post the great financial crisis,
from memory by Q4 2009 their asset values were seeing low double digits increases.

Post pandemic the lack of overseas tourism is a big differentiator from the GFC
with approx a third of footfall coming from overseas.

I had hoped there would be a slow but gradual recovery in tourism over 2022
with perhaps pre pandemic volumes seen in H2 2023 in to 2024 approx.

[nickrl] 27/6/2021 21:02

SHB trading close NTA unlike its biggest shareholder CAPC who are around 21% below so owning c25% of SHB isn't doing them any favours. Still feel share price has downside protection from this shareholding and wonder whether Norges Bank, a big holder in both, will try and engineer a merger of equals at some point. Bicknell won't like it but London footfall is going to be constrained for next few years and whether it ever comes back to pre covid levels has to be in doubt so rental tone will be under pressure for next couple of years.

[essentialinvestor] 27/6/2021 12:54

Hold a small amount but regardless I will give an honest assessment
when commenting on a stock (which obvs is just a subjective view!) and can't
make a short term buy case for SHB at present. Longer term it looks like a sitting duck but would not be confident at what price level corporate action may arise.

[konradpuss] 27/6/2021 11:14

Article in one of the property rags this week -'Judge halves West End rent in landmark case'.

It was in Jermyn Street - rent goes from £220,000 p.a. to £102,000 p.a. on a retail unit.

That is the way the wind is blowing.

[hindsight] 18/6/2021 11:44

The government should have followed this down the ladder and said the debt takes interest haircut too so pain across the board, but suppose they think BoE has already hammered them, losing due to inflation

[nickrl] 17/6/2021 21:36

Konrad i agree its pretty socialist style action but for most of propcos they've confronted the reality of the situation and come up with arrangements so my take is they aren't materially impacted by this.

[konradpuss] 17/6/2021 20:02

Below six quid. A bit off my 'buy' price still.

[konradpuss] 16/6/2021 19:13

£6.00 - going down.

I think the announcement today that the poor old commercial landlord cannot take a non paying tenant to court until March next year is a complete affront to human rights.

Oh! the government have introduced a mandatory arbitration process. About as useful as an ashtray on a motorcycle.

I am very, very worried about the curtailment of certain civil liberties that might not return.

I wonder how many non paying tenants are restructuring in the interim? Cynical me.

[hindsight] 15/6/2021 16:47

Thank you for the reply konradpuss. Yes agree regulated good but I also prefer BTR to BTL as remove developer margin in theory

[konradpuss] 14/6/2021 20:31

Grainger, I prefer their regulated tenancy portfolio than their BTR (build to rent) portfolio.

Now if their share price halved then .........