Shaftesbury Share Discussion Threads

[konradpuss] 21/7/2020 18:42

Essential, time will tell as to whether I am right. I just think these shares are not investable at present. I would need much more clarity which will come out over the next six months or so.

O.K. the stock market is forward looking, however it looks like it is wearing rose tinted glasses.

[essentialinvestor] 21/7/2020 15:43

Sold this morning's buy @ 509.5, average down to a smidge over 5.14 now.


Konrad's strategy of waiting may prove to be the better one.


Expected wider equity markets to weaken again over the summer but stateside holding us up atm.

[essentialinvestor] 20/7/2020 18:45

Today's vaccine news appears highly positive. Testing large numbers in Brazil
with the visus so rife, should provide a solid indication on whether it successfully
protects people. Not sure when the Phase 3 data is due.

[hindsight] 17/7/2020 13:03

The mistake Sweden made was not shielding the high risk well enough (they openly admit this)otherwise I would agree. This was clear from the outset, especially to me in a multi risk household. What is clear is a wash has a significant effect. Liverpool university professor paper claimed 20% rather than the old numbers of 60%, as there are low hanging and high hanging fruit in effect. This is appearing to be backed up in Stockhom, New York, and as the wash goes across the US. For any second wave lock down risk, I think >20% and <20% washed cities are way apart, which means Im reasonably confident on London

[konradpuss] 17/7/2020 12:32

As Sweden's Chief Epidemiologist said, we will only know if we have done the right thing in a year or two.

You are quite right that there are a lot of single households in Sweden due to the divorce rate. There have been some 'hot spots' in Stockholm and Gothenburg in the Somali communities.

Time will tell if the Swedes got it right - if William Hill were making odds - I would place a bet if the odds were right.

[essentialinvestor] 17/7/2020 12:04

46% of the Sweedish population live alone. The rest are less likely
to be squashed in to sardine cans as is the case with much of UK housing.
I'm guessing population density is also markedly different to the UK.

Have not added further here yet, had a bit of good fortune on buying SLI,
guessed around 52 might be the low, sold a few now. No stamp duty to pay on that.

[essentialinvestor] 17/7/2020 09:52

Wearing a paper mask better than a ventilator strapped to your face, as I heard a Dr.
who treated COVID patients say.

We are not out of the woods with COVID by a long way.

[konradpuss] 17/7/2020 06:40

Well if I were a 'chartist' I might be calling a double bottom at a fiver.

I don't know if they will hit my £2.12 valuation, however I think they will break below £5 shortly.

I will not wear a mask as I believe in liberty - oh! and the science on masks is at best inconclusive. I will therefore not break the law of the land so will not be going on public transport or shopping.

I can 'click and collect' food (plus some 'Finest' wine) from good old Tesco so I will not starve.

Now where does that leave Shaftesbury as I am not alone in refusing to wear a mask?

Finally, all the reports of the West End - dead as a dodo. The City worse!

[essentialinvestor] 16/7/2020 15:16

Under £5 - Long time coming.


Multiple sector stocks lower today, may be the start of another down leg for many commercial property listed stocks?.

[essentialinvestor] 14/7/2020 11:33

There's a line from Star Trek where (from memory)Scotty says ... I can'nae hold it much longer Captain - that's like the £5 mark on SHB atm!.


Konrad, yes saw the Helical news, thanks. They sometimes put some residential in the mix, perhaps not this time.


Added some SHB at 5.0222, having sold a few at 5.14, previous buy was at 5.01. Average now down to 5.21.

This might all be a waste of time as a sinkhole may appear suddenly.
Just a small position atm.


* not usually advisable to quote lines from Star Trek as there are some people who know every exact syllable
ever uttered, leaves you open to correction! ).

[konradpuss] 13/7/2020 20:56

Essential, I see Helical plus Ashby Capital have funded a big speculative office build on the City fringe.

I think they should have parked that one or thought about a residential use.

[konradpuss] 11/7/2020 17:02

Sten makes sure his family interests are well looked after.

I am a great believer in companies with a large family share holding.

[essentialinvestor] 11/7/2020 16:01

konrad, had a look at CLS, read back over years of reports. Their longer term record is exceptional, that might be an understatement. Up 10% on Friday, having not budged
on the Thursday statement. Thanks for highlighting.

[konradpuss] 09/7/2020 18:55

Essential, I think there are four reasons.

1. The large family stake.
2. The U.K. portfolio is no eye candy, neither is it prime.
3. The German stuff - it's in Germany. I was once told there is no 'straight'
commercial property deal in Germany - read everyone is on a back hander - it
surprised me this. The portfolio is also mostly secondary.
4. France - well what can I say.

The good think is there is no retail.

Richard Trice (spelling might be wrong) is the ex M.D. The BREXIT Party man.
Well maybe that's a negative - who knows.

They are good at managing and getting maximum rent out of the assets.

They buy, add value and sometimes sell.

[essentialinvestor] 09/7/2020 15:19

Hi Konrad, is it the family majority stake that holds the CLI rating back?.

[konradpuss] 08/7/2020 18:20

Essential, how about CLS? They seem to still be collecting most of their rent.

I still have not bought back in to Shaftesbury.

[essentialinvestor] 08/7/2020 14:23

konrad, not see many trading opportunities in this sector atm,
well at least that look attractive on a risk/reward basis.
SREI last week was an exception, as many of the TA traders were looking
to buy around 30 pence. Bought a few TRY on this morning's dip which I've now sold.
My book cost on SHB is 5.2756 atm. Main concern is autumn/winter with COVID.
It's a very small position atm. Hopefully 2021 will bring vaccine options,
however the damage caused to SHB will take time, perhaps 3/4 years imv -
may not remain independent for that long.

[hindsight] 08/7/2020 08:11

Breakeven from last years numbers would be 55% of 117.3 gross rent collection, to cover 19.3 property charges, 15.2 admin (agree with Konradpuss that directors not giving up enough, such things will be remembered in a takeover), 30.5 debt interest

[essentialinvestor] 08/7/2020 07:32

The trip to sub £5 may be underway.

[essentialinvestor] 07/7/2020 14:47

Collections figure for Derwent may have been slightly weaker than expected.

[essentialinvestor] 07/7/2020 14:35

DB @ 4.80 approx?, but neither am I !

Reports some pubs open over the weekend have since been closed with customers having
tested positive for COVID since.

[konradpuss] 07/7/2020 14:28

I am no 'chartist' however I think this looks like it could dip below a fiver.

[essentialinvestor] 07/7/2020 09:28

Had a few Helical this morning. In general I dont think risk/reward is particularly
favorable across the market atm, particularly in consumer cyclicals. Some of
the rapid rebounds leave little room for any future disappointment.

There were bargains galore in mid March, but those prices have long since gone.