Shaftesbury Share Discussion Threads

[essentialinvestor] 02/3/2022 19:13

Tell me about it Nick, I used to fill up with Shell V Power diesel, now it's the
ordinary and 100 ml of additive. Cant justify the price.

[nickrl] 02/3/2022 19:00

EI if the current heightened energy prices get locked at these levels going to cause severe loss of disposable income. Diesel already at 1.57 round my area. Coal through the roof today at an all time high of $400 up a staggering 45% on the day and nearly 80% higher than previous peak. Expect another few hundred on energy bills next time they are reset thats if any energy supplier is left standing. Gloomy but could just as easily readily unwind if the mood music changes in Ukraine of course.

[essentialinvestor] 02/3/2022 14:56

Events of the last week are a headwind, disposable incomes squeezed further,
may be fewer tourists just when a post covid recovery in numbers in its initial stages.

[phillis] 02/3/2022 14:52

but there wont be many Russian tourists visiting Covent Garden and Carnaby Street

[essentialinvestor] 09/2/2022 13:08

This area will never go out of fashion.

[phillis] 09/2/2022 12:56

I thought the art of investing was to buy good companies at low prices and lock them away

Traders have a different view of course
Mine are in a SIPP that will pass to my children

[essentialinvestor] 07/2/2022 12:33

I currently hold a very small amount of CAPCO - just for transparency,
not holding any SHB atm. Monitor SHB as think CAPCO will ultimately bid.

Appreciate the different views btw.

[skyship] 05/2/2022 09:41

EI - well, you know well my thoughts on SHB, so obviously I totally agree with david.

Any upside here limited to the trading range; but essentially a downward trajectory as very small discount to NAV and no yield protection.

Elsewhere in the sector 2021 provided enormous gains as valuations, yield compressions instigated great NAV recoveries - most now north of pre-pandemic levels.

Still money to be made by switching from here to the likes of BREI & SREI:

# BREI @ 92.4p - Disc. = 23.6% & Yld = 4.33%

# SREI @ 55.10p - Disc. = 16.3% & Yld = 5.27%

NB: SREI's keenly awaited Q4'21 NAV likely to be north of 69.4p, at which level disc. = 20.6%


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[nickrl] 04/2/2022 14:02

On the face of it a pretty positive update on leasing activity and rental income. Bicknall previously promoted use of t/o rents but this is no visibility of how much NRI is under this arrangement. Also how much concession is being offered to seduce businesses in isn't clear.

Mr Mkt not that keen on it today either but could be an entry point coming up as whilst I feel they are being tad over optimistic its not about to fall into a black hole like some dated shopping centre. Divi remains underwhelming should get an uplift but still won't make it and investable yield but this one is all about possible takeout although I still suspect a merger of equals would be better outcome.

[essentialinvestor] 04/2/2022 13:28

David, are you familiar with this part of London.

It's not a shopping centre in Hull.

Yes agree there is squeeze of disposable incomes in the year ahead.

[davidro77] 04/2/2022 13:16

Why do you say that? Sentiment has soured, the recovery is potentially in doubt and the mood amidst consumers has turned sharply lower. Retail is in trouble and footfall may likely fall again or stagnate. Where is the good news going to come from?

[hindsight] 04/2/2022 11:50

Imagine adjustments each way but atleast cash on hand rose


Liquidity

At 30 September 2021, available liquidity was GBP311.3 million (2020: GBP197.8 million) comprising GBP211.3 million of cash and our undrawn RCF (GBP100 million). Capital commitments to be funded from these resources totalled GBP18.8 million.


-- At 31 December 2021:

- Net debt: GBP740.9 million (30.9.21: GBP748.5 million).

- Available liquidity: GBP318.9 million, comprising GBP218.9 million of cash and an undrawn revolving credit facility amounting to GBP100 million.

[phillis] 04/2/2022 11:13

time to get back in

[essentialinvestor] 24/1/2022 07:35

Hi Nick, I prefer Capco out of the two.

[nickrl] 19/1/2022 22:20

EI certainly above the trough now although I'd like some more transparency on how much rent is on t/o basis now and how its being evaluated for income purposes. The real turning point will be restoration of international tourism.

[essentialinvestor] 19/1/2022 11:21

* Beginning of the end for the pandemic, hopefully!.

Capco trading statement.


Some of the low ball predictions for the SHB share price now look very wide of the mark,
barring some other adverse development with covid.

As mentioned at the time, Capco's timing here may look very good longer term.


Covid though remains the big outlier, only fair to say.

If we are on a path to a less virulent virus, as with the omicron variant,
it would be hugely supportive and the reverse applies.

[davidro77] 18/1/2022 19:35

Nice few days, assume it's the dropping of all covid restrictions? And shelter from the sea of red in tech. Any ideas?

[xxxxxy] 23/12/2021 14:06

Popped up.?

[konradpuss] 05/12/2021 11:13

Administration expenses in 2020 - £14.4 million.

I think this company could be run with the following. (Which is what Sammy would have done)

C.E.O. £300 k
C.F.O. £200 k
Valuation Surveyor £100 k
Building Surveyor £100 k
Secretary/Receptionist. £45 k

Non executives x 3. £75k

Small office £75k

Web site £5k

Black & White Annual Report £10k
(no pictures)

Phones, postage etc. £5k

Total £915k Say £1 million

I am available to take up the position of C.E.O. after April 2021!

Now the £14.4 million does not take into account share options.

In all a completely bloated organisation full of themselves floating on a sea of shareholder funds.

[konradpuss] 05/12/2021 10:07

What will change the dynamics of this company, ergo the share price?

I can only see a bid doing that.

The only other possible events are:-

1. Rental increases - not a hope.
2. Yield compression - not a hope.
3. Management coming up with some clever innovative ideas - you must be Joe King.

[skyship] 05/12/2021 09:44

EI - Well done with CLIN; nice when that happens after a rather substantial fall.

As for SHB, all I would say is that if it falls through 595p, then quickly exit:


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[nickrl] 04/12/2021 23:04

EI i feel this is propped up by a possible bid imo. Yes there are some positives coming through on the metrics like vacancy levels well improved but operation cash down with admin costs through the roof (ok some normalisation following reduction last year) as well as property operating costs. They've burnt through a stash of cash despite the share raise. Finally dividend isn't covered at the cash level but will probably be from next year as rent waivers fall away but can't see dividend moving ahead by much so with a pathetic yield no interest from me.

[essentialinvestor] 03/12/2021 12:19

Hi Sky, been in/out of SHB a number of times, but primarily saw this
as a 2/3 year play on asset values increases as hospitality reopened and people
returned to this part of London.

The issue now is COVID continues to drag on and their shops and restaurants
benefited greatly from overseas tourists in the past.
Reading the recent statement there is now an expectation that overseas visitors
will largely stay away the next couple of years - so that arguably blunts some of the potential upside.

SHB also a bid possibility given the Capco and Norges % share holdings.


Not been overly lucky with bids over the years, but had CLIN yesterday,
which I mentioned on the SHA board as an idea last week and again this Weds.

[skyship] 03/12/2021 12:09

EI - can you explain what value there is here. The basic metrics of NAV, low rent collection and earnings would surely suggest an share price of £5 at a pinch, certainly not £6...

[essentialinvestor] 02/12/2021 13:17

hindsight, yes per Martin Sorrell's pointed comments today.