Shaftesbury Share Discussion Threads

[konradpuss] 09/8/2020 18:26

nickrl, I could also start to go on about the management at Shaftesbury, however I have already done that here on many occasions.

What you need is a management that understands the cycles and has a 'speed of foot'.

Also add, a management that does not like debt and you have err! The Berkeley Group and I am not a holder - currently.

[nickrl] 09/8/2020 18:19

Konrad useful insight another propco run for the benefit of the directors and the old boy network looking after pensions funds who won't sell up as there all on the take via management fees.

[essentialinvestor] 09/8/2020 17:55

Thanks for the view, Only held BCBT for two days.

[konradpuss] 09/8/2020 16:15

Oh! and the numbers. There is a big discount to NAV. Now how do you value right now?
There has been, to my reading, very little transactional information to base any valuation on.

Let's see in March next year.

As to trading this trust, I would be very careful.

[konradpuss] 09/8/2020 16:12

Essential, I always like to look at the 'kit' before the numbers. This trust reminds me of a 1970's quoted property company. No specialisation at all. They probably conduct business still from a panelled city office (no one there currently).

I think their St.Christopher's Place mixed use property will have had some interesting quarter days of late. Their multi let St.James's offices might also have some vacancies coming.

The only interesting bit of 'kit' is their Winchester student digs. Not a 'Russell Group' University mind - I don't think Winchester is in over supply of student accommodation yet so this might be the best property they have from the view of supply and demand.

Finally, on their web site there are far too many 'Chartered Surveyors' running the show. This portfolio could be run with one surveyor, a couple of admin staff and an office cat! Now did you see what the Puss did there?

[nickrl] 09/8/2020 14:31

EI BCPT now has a covered divi which makes its investable for me (im not though) but banking a quick turn maybe more sensible currently until we have more certainty over what long rental income in this sector is as loss of dividend will be punished hard.

[essentialinvestor] 09/8/2020 14:03

OK thanks, it might be worth a look at some point.

[konradpuss] 09/8/2020 13:53

Essential, sorry I know zero about it. Maybe somebody else on the board can help.

[essentialinvestor] 09/8/2020 13:18

konrad, do you have a view on BCPT?, I bought at 61 on the statement and
sold during the week.

Thought it looked interesting on any wider market setback.

[essentialinvestor] 08/8/2020 18:59

Would expect the adult and older teenage population will be offered any vaccine,
my point is on seasonal influenza an age/health v risk calculation is made.

[konradpuss] 08/8/2020 18:57

Oh! and just to put Covid19 into perspective, the Spanish flu infected 500 million people and killed 50 million.

I would wager almost as many people have already been killed as collateral damage from the virus as have been taken by the virus.

[konradpuss] 08/8/2020 18:49

I love optimists. The track record says there will not be vaccine for a while - if ever.

My hope is this thing does not 'morph' like Spanish flu and take the young.

A pessimistic Puss.

[hindsight] 08/8/2020 18:35

EssentialInvestor, true but for example Moderna are talking $30 so that would be about £15 on normal nhs pricing vs US, 65 million x 15 = £975m. A large sum but when treasury has spent 300bn and counting offering it free to all they wont even blink. Issue will be safety for groups where death is very rare

[essentialinvestor] 08/8/2020 13:18

Remember the annual flu jab is only offered free to Over 65's
or younger with a particular medical condition, asthma etc.

[hindsight] 07/8/2020 21:12

Konradpuss, personally think there will be more than one. Not sure how long will last, guess be yearly like flu jab. And not sure they will be proven safe enough for lowest risk group for a while ie if risk is 1 in 10000 for them then wont be given 1 in 10000 vaccine
As for inflation, been thinking it was coming for years too. But could be argued it has come but in asset price inflation. Property, gold, growth shares all significantly higher than start of this century. Owing money may be a good idea if can get across the valley of default

[konradpuss] 07/8/2020 20:24

Probably means a bid!

[essentialinvestor] 07/8/2020 20:05

Capco down late Friday, SHB up.

[konradpuss] 07/8/2020 19:04

Essential, I have been predicting inflation for years, I have however been totally wrong.

I still might be wrong for a while yet, however when it comes, heaven help people who owe a lot of money and don't have the ability to raise their wages/prices and the poor old folk who have money on deposit.

Shaftesbury up some what - maybe a bid! In your dreams although I might be wrong again.

[konradpuss] 07/8/2020 19:01

hindsight, I really hope they find a vaccine. I think many millions were thrown at the aides virus - maybe billions, no vaccine yet.

[hindsight] 07/8/2020 17:38

Seems to keep getting bid up in the auctions on volume. Still holding here but only have small % of what wanted to get before a vaccine appears.

[nickrl] 07/8/2020 16:08

Umm these have flown up which im not sure is warranted given the depressed footfall in London currently which is unlikely to substantially improve until 2021 at the earliest. They can only keep tenants by substantial rent reductions or turnover based deals so whilst not an HMSO unless CAPC come calling can't see its sustainable so worthy of a short perhaps.

[essentialinvestor] 07/8/2020 15:07

Sold out of GPOR as well this week, traded BCPT, not seeing much
else in the sector that appeals atm.

If markets conclude that inflation is on the way, SHB may look very cheap near these levels
in 12 months time.

[konradpuss] 06/8/2020 20:25

Essential, there is an old stock market saying, it goes along the lines of 'the bodies first float to the surface, stay a while then sink to the bottom'.

Make of that as you will.

It's a good estate with poor management in a bad crisis right now.

I hate gearing and if I had been 'at the helm' I would have been max. 10% geared and only coming out of a recession, having picked up some bargains. This lot thought the Central London boom would last for ever. Learn by history - it never does!

[essentialinvestor] 06/8/2020 13:59

Sold the rest @ 5.24. Luck tothose holding.

[essentialinvestor] 05/8/2020 16:14

Sold 40%, few nice days.