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Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Shaftesbury Plc LSE:SHB London Ordinary Share GB0007990962 ORD 25P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  -13.00 -2.04% 623.50 623.50 624.50 644.00 623.50 634.50 433,463 16:29:59
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Real Estate Investment Trusts 126.9 26.0 8.5 73.4 2,396

Shaftesbury Share Discussion Threads

Showing 501 to 525 of 600 messages
Chat Pages: 24  23  22  21  20  19  18  17  16  15  14  13  Older
DateSubjectAuthorDiscuss
22/8/2020
19:59
Essential, for Shaftesbury to become a 'recovery play' it has to hit the bottom. Sorry to say, quite a way off as there is no market evidence on transactions. If, as the valuers will require this, they are currently behind the curve. I am not a perma bear however I must have market evidence to be able to form a rational view on values.
konradpuss
22/8/2020
18:13
Traded DLN during the week, a very small amount. Derwent has bounced from the 27.70/90 area on so many occasions recently. Nick has mentioned £24/25, which looks a safer longer term area. I don't hold GPOR atm either. Would expect fundamentals will look terrible next year as the economic fallout ripples outward, however also anticipate share prices to begin to firm up well ahead of better news. Helical have sold a London property post the COVID hit, it was jointly owned and their share was under £10 million. I'm not that focussed on the London market, or have any particular conviction (outside of thinking SHB will be a cracking recovery play at some point). Attention is on finding stocks where short term value may be available. Intend to switch to buy and hold sometime over the next few months. Expected equity market volatility over the summer which did not happen. Hoping that may develop over the next couple of months, but there is little sign atm.
essentialinvestor
22/8/2020
08:05
Essential, property cycles are longer generally than your time scale. Where are the positives going to come from? New lettings, rents going up, yields sharpening, build costs going down, development finance becoming cheaper. Looking forward, if you are say Great Portland or Derwent London, you have survived, however you have quite a bit of over rented stock. You might find some bargains at that point however there will be a sea of vacant space on the market. I think most medium to large and also some small companies will do as BP and will shrink their office foot print by 50%. Now who is going to fill that space? It will perhaps go residential. What you are watching is a seismic shift without a previous parallel. I understand you are saying there might be a little discount left on NAV with some yield in a few months, however I just wonder if the risk is worth it?
konradpuss
21/8/2020
22:46
Nick, valid rationa; within the next 6 months best guess - I reserve the right to be wrong ).
essentialinvestor
21/8/2020
22:39
EI for sure if any propco can withstand capital falls and find a new (lower) level of sustainable rental income that can support a dividend yield of say 3-4% agree that will be desirable for income seeking funds. Its where that point is - my view remains conditions for another leg down are still dominant but if HMG/HMT are remaining in the ring can easily flip the other way.
nickrl
21/8/2020
22:14
Nick, Great Portland have been been explicit in warning of capital value falls to come, they also have about 30% retail exposure. The flip side to this is a wall of money looking for even nominal returns with continuing ZIRP. So when the sector turn comes, it will be very rapid imv.
essentialinvestor
21/8/2020
21:58
EI currently we are in the phoney war with HMG largesse propping up at lot of the economy but as furlough runs down and business have to find the cash things could start changing. CEO/FDs will running the ruler over there business plans for 2021 onwards and considering there options. Short term its retail/F&B that are making the running but it will slowly seep into the office/industrial sector imo. In the medium term i see GPOR back below £5 but short term positive sentiment will keep it buoyed up and wish I had the confidence to buy on the dips across the sector.
nickrl
21/8/2020
21:29
konrad, I suppose it's a case of what type of NAV discount allows for this. You can buy Helical (with 15% Manchester) on a near 40% NAV discount, that type of level starts to look attractive, although the share price can be volatile. Hoped Great Portland would be available under £5.50, however unless wider equities sell off, I'm no longer confident that will happen.
essentialinvestor
21/8/2020
20:32
Essential, I spoke to a 'city solicitor' this morning. He said he will not be ever going permanently back to his office in King William Street. Now Toby is a very good CEO and Great Portland is mainly 'West End', however I think they should form a residential unit as offices in the City and West End will face some troubled times for the foreseeable future.
konradpuss
20/8/2020
16:46
GPOR raising debt to increase firepower. Tony is a very sharp CEO. I'm guessing he spies opportunities presenting themselves over the next 12 months. They are in a very different position to SHB as London office representatives about 70% of their holdings.
essentialinvestor
16/8/2020
16:09
Essential, I really take my metaphorical hat off to you. This sector is far too risky for me until there is some solid transactional information in respect of 'the kit'. O.K. we all know, and I am talking generally that rents will go down in the 'Shaftesbury' type property (not sure about the resi. upper parts mind). I think the interesting thing is yields. You have interest rates at historic lows. Once a 'new world' rent level has been found, I wonder what the market will do in respect of yield/capitalisation rates?
konradpuss
16/8/2020
16:04
I hoped to build a larger and longer term position in Great Portland and looked for a move under £5.50, as that has not happened got rid of my last small purchase on the recent move over £6. Kept it on a watchlist. That's about all I can add to any sector discussion atm.
essentialinvestor
16/8/2020
15:29
A number of my friends work in healthcare and fwiw hospitals are planning for an infux of UK COVID cases from mid September. The REITS have offered trading opportunities over the last few weeks, aided by an increase in volatility. I've traded SLI, SHB, SREI, BREI, BCPT and GPOR. none of which I now hold. They have been small trades, SLI the latest, which I closed on Friday afternoon was 20,000 shares. Most people might not have the time, let alone the inclination to trade this sector and may be looking for longer term investment opportunities.
essentialinvestor
16/8/2020
15:29
I just wonder about central banks. When Keynesian stimulus was used accidentally by the arms manufacture for the second world war in the USA it worked well. As the years have gone on and central banks have generally amassed hugh amounts of debt it has not worked so well. There will come a point when it will have almost zero effect. I have no idea when that will be, however as it says outside churches 'it's later than you think'!
konradpuss
16/8/2020
15:14
hindsight im inclined to agree and given rapid response from BoE from outset I would say they haven't exhausted the firepower yet and are biding there time. AIUI they can extend duration on covid financing facilities as well if they wish so theres nothing to stop any company accessing that. Would have thought the more debt you've got the potentially less attractive you are to a suitor so ought to be better option than a RI but maybe im missing something.
nickrl
15/8/2020
22:20
7 are already in phase 3 which means using historic failure rates in phase 3 (pos 58%) then 4 will pass. There is also a large number in phase 1 and 2 that on previous pos will add to the 4. Question will be immune response (antibodies and/or tcells), non drift flu is 70% so seems reasonable guess. Other issues will be how long lasts, and risk vs risk , imagine be 50+ first of all. Yes agree excessive debt makes one hero or zero, but ever since Greenspan those taking debt at sensible levels have been bailed out by central banks.
hindsight
15/8/2020
21:27
To make money you need an independent personal view otherwise you are just following the crowd. As Charlie Munger says you are not right because every one else says your right, it's down to the facts. As to remaining open minded, I am, however I think you need to look at history in respect of vaccines.
konradpuss
15/8/2020
21:14
konrad, with respect sometimes it's better to remain open minded. BCPT, which I mentioned here is Up over 10% since. You are clearly coming at this from a vaccine sceptical perspective, which is fine, I'm interested in making money. When it comes to trading/investing I try to leave personal views aside.
essentialinvestor
15/8/2020
21:08
'Putin would only go on public record if confident' - that is like saying EBITDA is an honest reflection of a company's profits! Please, Putin could not tell the truth to save his life.
konradpuss
15/8/2020
20:59
Nick, an unprecedented vaccine effort, nothing has even come close to this global endeavour. Remember also a lot of the work was previously completed on SARS. The Russian vaccine looks largely based on their previous Ebola work. And while I would be highly sceptical of Russia propaganda, Putin would only go on public record if confident their vaccine was effective. He risks global ridicule otherwise. Worth also saying that no vaccine in existence gives 100% protection, 80-85% that would be extraordinary. It's the severe 20% of COVID infections that are causing the global problem. Mitigate the majority of those and this no longer poses a more serious threat than pneumonia.
essentialinvestor
15/8/2020
20:25
nickrl, interesting. Valuers 'blow hot and cold like the wind'. I think they will start to really hatchet the values as the evidence sinks home that there is no reversion and rental values will drop/are dropping dramatically although there is no real evidence as yet due to the lack of transactions. Now as to yield, I think this is interesting. How does a valuer value a prime retail unit in Soho that has gone on to a turnover rent or a retail unit that has a tenant that is solvent who has not paid rent however has taken advantage of the government not allowing court action/ possession proceedings until September. My view is that if Shaftesbury had no debt every thing would be disappointing but just fine. It's the debt that will really hurt Shaftesbury. When you have a 'golden goose' why leverage - that is pure greed. Debt is the real evil. Back to the gold standard I say!
konradpuss
15/8/2020
19:40
As i see it HMG is like a failed poker player in a Casino doubling down on any vaccine thats going in the vein hope one works. Omens aren't good given attempts on other vaccines but its fair to say the world is throwing everything at it so its highly possible. Personally HMG need two Plan A's and getting confidence back is the key enabler. Its pretty clear that short of confining us all to our houses the virus will spread but whats becoming apparent is majority of people can deal with it, or don't even know they've had it, and the NHS has sufficient capacity. Im not saying its routine but the more the 'new normal' becomes embedded the more confident people should be. In the case SHB rental income being down at least 50% is now baked in for at least two years and maybe permanently if international tourism doesn't recover beyond 2023. Can they withstand that - im not so sure as valuers will bash down NAV but maybe bankers will continue to waive covenant tests if the interest bill is paid.
nickrl
15/8/2020
18:56
Just to clarify, I'm very cautious on markets atm. Mentioned this on other boards. While convinced SHB will be a cracking recovery play at some point(guessing that buy point will be in 2021) calling a likely low point is very difficult. The CapCo IC write up was not exactly comprehensive, although would not necessarily disagree with the recommendation given the backdrop. They have a further £100 Million on the way from the Earls Court transcation this year. That should provide some extra breathing space, once received. In terms of a potential SHB fund raising, my own view (as previously mentioned) is they should have raised circa £250-350 Million. Can appreciate they are loathe to do this with the resulting NAV dilution.
essentialinvestor
15/8/2020
16:04
Essential, since General Franco expired Spain has gone down hill rapidly. You cannot beat a good old benevolent dictator, well O.K. perhaps not Saddam. The Euro did not help either. I will not be one of the 18 million. I will stick to Sweden which seems to be doing rather well with the 'Tegnell' strategy which tempered common sense with science. With Climate Change it will soon have a climate like the South of France as well. Also their economy has been much less affected by the virus due to the no 'lock down' and I believe they did not stop any of the regular diagnosis and medical treatment of the likes of cancer etc. from when Covid 'broke' - unlike the U.K. I see Cap. Co. got a sell recommendation in the I.C. this week - that might mean they are a buy! Not with my money mind.
konradpuss
15/8/2020
15:28
18 million Brits visit just Spain every year. A COVID vaccination requirement for overseas travel will solve take up rates very quickly. Next set of results for SHB around November time. Will the moritorium still be in place by then?. It may possibly be tapered. Adds uncertainty to sector investment until there is clarity on this.
essentialinvestor
Chat Pages: 24  23  22  21  20  19  18  17  16  15  14  13  Older
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