Shaftesbury Share Discussion Threads

[nickrl] 25/2/2021 23:42

Mr Market doesn't seem too bothered about the situation. Im not convinced myself but SHB are well funded currently and they have CAPC putting a prop under it as well so doubt they will drop back much from here given poor rental income.

[konradpuss] 25/2/2021 21:34

What a terrible rent collection percentage in the update today. What will happen when landlords can enforce their rights? More vacancies. I think the government will move this date until mid summer, the magic date from Boris me thinks.

[hindsight] 17/2/2021 14:09

Sold some and added it to bcpt and sere, time will tell

[hindsight] 17/2/2021 10:49

The two big holders should resist any recalibration, which imagine has already partly happened due to the rights issue. But maybe they are on similar deals Raised to buy by Jefferies today

[nickrl] 15/2/2021 17:39

He's not the only CEO that is sitting there taking stonking salaries and the next thing we will see is recalibration of the performance schemes as there all out the money currently and that can't be permitted otherwise they will leave for a better job!

[konradpuss] 14/2/2021 21:03

Essential, I see the great over paid chief executive of Shaftesbury is reported as saying on the one hand turn over rents are good and on the other hand tourists will not return to the estate for two years in numbers. What would I do if I were the CEO? Double down by doing another major rights issue and then buying some vacant bargains or perhaps liquidate. He is just sitting there drawing his big fat salary which is not deserved giving interviews to the Telegraph. How much nouse does it take to send out a few rent demands every quarter? If I was not busy I would offer to do his job for free. Not sure my C.V. is up to it mind!

[nickrl] 05/2/2021 21:22

EI i'll have a spread bet if it gets to 600p its getting ahead of itself imv.

[essentialinvestor] 05/2/2021 15:04

Ouch!- should have gone with my gut call on this, profit missed, never mind. Hopefully other opportunities in the future.

[homarus] 05/2/2021 15:01

Level of immigration interest from Hong Kong will help the Chinatown portfolio

[its the oxman] 05/2/2021 14:27

What's up. Rally on hopes the shoppers will return soon?

[hindsight] 05/2/2021 08:53

konradpuss, thank you for the reply. I like the fact that last valuation Dec 2020 puts them on a 38% discount with a low 22% LTV. They have some income so can pay small divis, at least beat bank account (Edit 10 year gilts are 0.3%). Personally would top slice some SHB @ 600p and put into BCPT. As I understand it standard rent free use to be 6 months ? so its 18 months more but if that gets quality corporates for 13 years then it makes them attractive long term Ps Agree on London Mayor, London needs half full, rather than half empty glass leader going forward

[nickrl] 04/2/2021 22:02

Im no fan of Khan but his hand has been forced over congestion charging by UK govt. Like you my view is SHB on fundamentals is overvalued but it has the prop of CAPC either taking it out or a merger of equals. In the meantime it has enough cash to keep it going so its basically a punt on normality returning.

[essentialinvestor] 04/2/2021 20:35

konrad, appreciate the view as always.

[konradpuss] 04/2/2021 20:14

Essential, I would do this. If you think things will recover to rents previously paid by Shaftesbury tenants prior to Covid in say three years then buy the shares. I am firmly of a belief that things are not going back to the way they were. More people home working and the suburbs becoming sort of hub centres. Also look what this terrible Major of London is doing - congestion charge seven days a week etc. etc. There will be a price to buy Shaftesbury at and currently I think that is well below where they trade today.

[konradpuss] 04/2/2021 20:06

hindsight, they own quite a bit of retail and offices. Not bad locations, infact some prime kit. As I told Essential previously, the stand out is their Winchester student block. Stand out meaning it will not be valued down by much. O.K. they are trading at a 30% discount to NAV, however that might well end up being justified due to the fall in values. I am told some big office occupiers are getting two years rent free for signing a fifteen year lease currently.

[essentialinvestor] 04/2/2021 18:53

Getting bery tempted here as a 3 year recovery play.

[hindsight] 04/2/2021 10:41

Nickrl, Konradpuss, EI and others here, do you have any view on BCPT ? thank you in advance

[nickrl] 03/2/2021 22:10

hindsight id say there key assumptions aren't far from how its turning out not bad prescience by whoever wrote it. Where it may fall short is whether this Autumn we find ourselves back in a more restricted environment again and constraints on international travel will be with us for years. Yes the rest of the world will get vaccinated in due course but the amount of capacity that's been ripped out of aviation will both drive up prices for travel as well as reducing volume for many years.

[hindsight] 03/2/2021 15:12

Seems we all agree on the long term, just need to get across the valley of death Below is what they were working on from the rights issue document 12.2 Reasonable worst case assumptions relating to the Covid-19 pandemic In preparing its reasonable worst case scenario, the Company has made assumptions regarding the need for more severe Covid-19 containment measures adversely affecting footfall and trading in the West End, occupancy in the Group’s property portfolio and a slower recovery than assumed in the Company’s base case scenario. The reasonable worst case therefore includes certain Covid-19 related sensitivities, as set out in the following key assumptions: • continuing Government social distancing measures with a gradual return of West End footfall and improvement in trading conditions from July 2021; • a decline in total rent collection to 25% of contracted rent from 1 October 2020 to 30 June 2021, rising to 35% and 45% in the quarters ending 30 September 2021 and 31 December 2021 respectively; • EPRA vacancy at 20% of ERV throughout the period from 1 October 2020 to 31 December 2021; • an increase in irrecoverable property costs of £4.0 million for the period from 1 October 2020 to 30 September 2021; • ERV decline (on all new letting events) in the year ending 30 September 2021 of 20%, with a further decline of 10% in the year ending on 30 September 2022; and • a decrease in the valuation of the Group’s wholly-owned portfolio and the Longmartin Joint Venture properties of 25% from 15 September 2020 to the end of the 12 month period following the date of this document.

[konradpuss] 03/2/2021 10:00

Essential, working in the industry is probably a disadvantage! What really worries me is 'the cost of reopening' some of these businesses Shaftesbury have as tenants. Many will not re-open. Then there will be more vacant units. In the long run I am optimistic of their portfolio, you just have to get to the long run. I do think rents will go down by 40% in respect of the retail/A3/A4/A5/office content of their portfolio. That, if I am right will lead to another cash call.

[essentialinvestor] 03/2/2021 09:38

I pictured a 3/4 year recovery here and not seen anything to change that view, that can change obvs!. Looking for NAV to trough around Q2/3 this year - but that is very much a guessestimate and only if SHB do Not require another equity raise. konrad works in the industry, I dont, it should be said.

[hindsight] 03/2/2021 09:00

Hospitalisations are an accurate reflection of infections but are historic, think what matters is how well vaccines work on various covid and what happens when covid hits the vaccine wall, then what if any natural selection mutation comes out. From Oxford data seems uk will be able to open up but not to international travel

[nickrl] 03/2/2021 00:04

Dartboard I called hospitalisations wrong by a week but was looking at UK wide it looks like your using England numbers. Actually since I penned that things have mode down at pace (to use a favourite govt phrase!)and its possible we may see things improving earlier in Spring than expected albeit its all very fluid.

[dartboard1] 02/2/2021 14:00

Nickrl, where are you getting your data from? I see a peak in hospitalisation around mid Jan and a drop off since. Daily Admissions to hospital 12 Jan 4,134. And 30 Jan 2,193. Total beds occupied by a covid patient 18 Jan 34,336. 1 Feb 28,539. Not nitpicking, just want to get the story out that it's turning a corner. Agree that international travel will take longer to recover, but not sure London will be the destination of choice for staycations... still, this is one to hold for two years I believe

[boonkoh] 02/2/2021 13:06

Capital & Co just released new NAV, took a 13% hit from NAV value from mid 2020.Read across to Shaftesbury.