Shaftesbury Share Discussion Threads

[hindsight] 23/8/2021 10:40

nickrl, thanks, Im not expecting a dividend here and would much rather they focus on NAV creation in 2 years time. My main bugbear, as has been said by many on here, director salaries too high

[hindsight] 23/8/2021 10:35

Think this could have legs, Boohoo brought a West End HQ for a reason - Healthy occupier interest for our shops, including online retailers looking for physical space in our areas to provide consumer experience, interaction and engagement and further enhance their brand identity.

[nickrl] 23/8/2021 10:27

On the face of it todays trading update is positive with significant reduction in voids but i would suggest the telling statement "Whilst letting terms are generally in line with ERVs and our expectations, there is a greater degree of short-term income uncertainty in those retail leases which include a significant element of turnover-related rent" casts a shadow over how the valuers will assess NAV at year end. Then you have the rental position where there still providing waivers to nearly half the contracted rent and even then the tenants they are billing still aren't fully paying as they've realised only 3/4 of it. Yes the position is slowly improving but at cash level they didn't cover the measly dividend at half year so unless they want to use the £230m cash they have in the bank to bankroll the dividend can't see it increasing. Anyhow someone likes them as share price hasn't gone South!

[essentialinvestor] 28/6/2021 15:34

konrad, appreciate your updates here and sector insight. SHB recovered quickly post the great financial crisis, from memory by Q4 2009 their asset values were seeing low double digits increases. Post pandemic the lack of overseas tourism is a big differentiator from the GFC with approx a third of footfall coming from overseas. I had hoped there would be a slow but gradual recovery in tourism over 2022 with perhaps pre pandemic volumes seen in H2 2023 in to 2024 approx.

[nickrl] 27/6/2021 22:02

SHB trading close NTA unlike its biggest shareholder CAPC who are around 21% below so owning c25% of SHB isn't doing them any favours. Still feel share price has downside protection from this shareholding and wonder whether Norges Bank, a big holder in both, will try and engineer a merger of equals at some point. Bicknell won't like it but London footfall is going to be constrained for next few years and whether it ever comes back to pre covid levels has to be in doubt so rental tone will be under pressure for next couple of years.

[essentialinvestor] 27/6/2021 13:54

Hold a small amount but regardless I will give an honest assessment when commenting on a stock (which obvs is just a subjective view!) and can't make a short term buy case for SHB at present. Longer term it looks like a sitting duck but would not be confident at what price level corporate action may arise.

[konradpuss] 27/6/2021 12:14

Article in one of the property rags this week -'Judge halves West End rent in landmark case'. It was in Jermyn Street - rent goes from £220,000 p.a. to £102,000 p.a. on a retail unit. That is the way the wind is blowing.

[hindsight] 18/6/2021 12:44

The government should have followed this down the ladder and said the debt takes interest haircut too so pain across the board, but suppose they think BoE has already hammered them, losing due to inflation

[nickrl] 17/6/2021 22:36

Konrad i agree its pretty socialist style action but for most of propcos they've confronted the reality of the situation and come up with arrangements so my take is they aren't materially impacted by this.

[konradpuss] 17/6/2021 21:02

Below six quid. A bit off my 'buy' price still.

[konradpuss] 16/6/2021 20:13

£6.00 - going down. I think the announcement today that the poor old commercial landlord cannot take a non paying tenant to court until March next year is a complete affront to human rights. Oh! the government have introduced a mandatory arbitration process. About as useful as an ashtray on a motorcycle. I am very, very worried about the curtailment of certain civil liberties that might not return. I wonder how many non paying tenants are restructuring in the interim? Cynical me.

[hindsight] 15/6/2021 17:47

Thank you for the reply konradpuss. Yes agree regulated good but I also prefer BTR to BTL as remove developer margin in theory

[konradpuss] 14/6/2021 21:31

Grainger, I prefer their regulated tenancy portfolio than their BTR (build to rent) portfolio. Now if their share price halved then .........

[hindsight] 14/6/2021 11:25

Residential, any views on Grainger ?

[konradpuss] 13/6/2021 20:27

nickel, so where is the value? I think the 'last mile' and logistics are well over valued. Retail - catch a falling knife. offices - well I cannot answer that one as yet - it goes into the too difficult pile. I am sure there is some value still in residential property - no bargain mind. It's all subject to the big caveat - when is cheap money going to end?

[nickrl] 13/6/2021 18:55

Konrad spot on but there are a few others REITs in a similar position but telling thing for me are the ones where directors never purchase because the share options are so lucrative they even manage to payout when the business has been trashed by a pandemic. I also see on the bigger favoured REITs there has been little movement by big shareholders to sell down during the pandemic and given many are now on sustainable payouts its probably suits them to have some level of income so share price unlikely to shift until one of them decides the games up and there's better value elsewhere.

[konradpuss] 13/6/2021 16:32

Agreed nickel, however on your view of the valuation of the portfolio and therefore the share price I wonder if Capco have the 'bottle' to bid? O.K. you said they provide a 'floor' to the share price. As an aside I think I put my 'buy' price here at circa two quid - perhaps a little harsh but very possible due to the gearing and fall in rents. I cannot see the current 'sound bite' well over paid Chief Executive of Shaftesbury rolling over without a fight as he would be out of a job if Capco took over. The Capco management would know doubt wish to rule the roost. Sammy runs the Langham Estate with very few people - probably modestly paid. Just look at what the management take at Shaftesbury to send out a few rent demands and pontificate on 'curating'. They need to get real, cut costs and do something entrepreneurial. Just my humble opinion - I don't think Bickell does humble!

[nickrl] 13/6/2021 16:10

Konradpuss that along with lack of international tourism for a few years means rents have to fall but SHB are managing this via t/o rents which is probably sensible course of action if not only course. However, how much base rents they can guarantee isn't being visible is where I see huge uncertainty now over this and price is way too high imv. Again though CAPC interest will probably keep a floor under the price currently.

[konradpuss] 13/6/2021 12:46

I wonder what Sammy is thinking right now? My view is that he did the right thing in selling his stake. The first loss is the cheapest. Essential I think the recent results and the 'COVID' factor are joined at the hip. I speak to many people and many now will just not come into London. Why, well the congestion charge now seven days a week and ULEZ, parking charges etc. etc. It is no joy at all. Things will have to become more affordable for many to return for a night out.

[essentialinvestor] 11/6/2021 14:12

Nick, thanks for the view, appreciated. Inpatient hospital number peaked at just under 39,000 earlier this year, we are close to 1,000 on the latest update, all be it there is a lag between new cases v admissions.

[nickrl] 11/6/2021 11:41

Hindsight hospital admissions following totally different trajectory to cases now but media focus on case numbers and are driving the narrative aided by those with a vested interest to see this go on forever. A deferral, or at least a scaling back of step 4, is all but inevitable i suspect despite data showing definitively that Step 3 with the unexpected arrival of the Delta variant hasn't caused anything close to what modellers predicted for Step 3 on its own. Thing is moratorium is due off shortly and will this give them an excuse to kick the can down the road again or will we see a modification that at least hones the response to protect those that need protection and not those that have taken advantage. SHB still overrated imv with voids on Oxford St at 17% this will take a while to pick up especially as inbound tourism will remain significantly depressed for the rest of this year. Suspect though CAPC interest will give it a better floor for time being.

[hindsight] 11/6/2021 09:15

Think key number to watch is H admissions of fully vaccinated Starting to get more interested in SHB again, had sold some into bcpt, but like others they have risen strongly

[essentialinvestor] 10/6/2021 23:52

* COVID cases increasing again.

[konradpuss] 10/6/2021 20:47

A bit of a step down in the share price today. Perhaps a delayed reaction to their recent figures.