Shaftesbury Share Discussion Threads

[nickrl] 20/1/2021 11:17

EI hospitalisation rates is clearly driving govt policy here and imv that won't reach a peak for a few more weeks. Even then govt will want a significant reduction to rebuild a buffer before it relaxes much. They are also clearly running a strategy to at least minimise the possibility of imported mutations now and much of the Western world is in the same space. So I see international tourism being significantly reduced in 21 and SHB are leveraged to that footfall driving there tenants income and thus SHB NRI. There is the potential that there will be substitution from staycations and day visitors but that needs the current rules being relaxed back to at least as they were last summer. I believe this will happen in part from current measures and vaccinations but more so from natural suppression of the respiratory. With SHB leveraging themselves to t/o rents they aint going to have a good 2021 so your buying into the future here. They have the cash in hand to get through this now and of course there remains the possibility of CAPCC launching a bid or more sensibly trying for a merger but share price will tread water at current levels.

[essentialinvestor] 20/1/2021 10:44

It's a valid point. My better half had the Pfizer vaccine yesterday, in group one due to occupation. I'm in group 6. A significant step forward would be vaccination mitigating the more serious cases, those that require hospitalisation. And also hopefully significantly preventing long COVID - Made the same point previously elsewhere.

[hindsight] 20/1/2021 10:29

EI, you appear to be a man of few words Looking forward, am wondering how uk will try to stop vaccine shift mutations entering, thats if not home grown and its effect on travel.

[nickrl] 06/1/2021 21:33

Konradpuss plenty as turnover rents are Bickells new strategy to justify his pay cheque. He was quoted as saying the traditional leasing model is broken I would also suggest the way he is remunerated is as well his salary is linked back to company profitability at basic salary level as well. Should get a trading update later this month and may have a stab at a spread bet nearer the time if it still at current levels as it clearly buoyed up by vaccine momentum currently.

[konradpuss] 06/1/2021 19:31

I was just pondering how many new leases to extisting tenants have been put in place with 'turn over' rents? I wonder if the CEO has considered giving up his big fat salary this year. Not a chance.

[konradpuss] 27/12/2020 19:20

nickrl, I ask many people if they are likely to return anytime soon to a 'night out in the West End', O.K. subject to COVID restrictions. It is interesting, most say they had already been put off by poor value. O.K. the tourists will eventually return. I think rents (A3, plus retail) in Shaftesbury territory will eventually halve (a major generalisation)to bring back some value so that tenants will no longer be working for the landlords and the punter will not get completely fleeced on his or her night out. The fall out of COVID will take some time to be fully reflected in valuations. I can also see office rents in the Central area of London plus the City being very weak for quite some time. Do I think they might halve - possibly. I look at a City firm of lawyers I know well. They would like to reduce the space they occupy by 50%. Who is going to fill that vacant space? The only good think for values is that interest rates look like they might stay low for the foreseeable. Don't completely write off inflation one day coming out the box like a jack in the box.

[essentialinvestor] 27/12/2020 18:46

As with many lockdown impacted stocks, the market is forward looking atm. Yes the recovery will be multi year. SHB perhaps one to look at on a bad day.

[nickrl] 27/12/2020 18:07

Konrad we are likely to get a Brexit and Oxford vaccine boost this week and historical the market trades up well on thin trading over Xmas / New Year sessions so suspect it may go higher yet. My view is its overrated as well but optimism is carrying the day currently but my take is SHB tenants are significantly impaired with lower footfall baked in for a few years and with there move to t/o rents will see income depleted for sometime. Can't see a divi in 21 either for me its a potential spread bet opportunity

[konradpuss] 27/12/2020 17:33

Essential, the recent share price up tick makes no sense to me after the recent results. I guess 'the market' is looking at the future more optimistically than me.

[essentialinvestor] 27/12/2020 17:05

Start of a strong recovery from around Q4 2021 ?.

[konradpuss] 15/12/2020 20:57

Two takeaways for me in respect of these results. !. They still think there is a substantial reversions in the portfolio - dream on. 2. Virtually nothing let in the second half of the year. I am sorry to say much more pain here despite vaccines etc. The West End got priced for perfection. The tenants were just working to pay the rent. Times are achanging.

[essentialinvestor] 15/12/2020 14:17

Hi Nick, thanks for the summary. To answer your question, only partly. With their other institutional holders raising further cash, if needed, should not be an issue. Far from ideal though as effectively it means further NAV dilution.

[nickrl] 15/12/2020 11:34

Results out today and watched presentation. My takeaways - no surprise NAV down 18% - only collected 53% of rent and that's flattered by taking 12% from rent deposits - 25% written off with 9% deferred but no certainty of full recovery - minimal impact from CVAs and administrations - vacancy rate 10.2% - tenants walking away at lease breaks/renewal - high levels of resi vacancy due to overseas people leaving - expect to burn through £45m in 2021 - interest waivers in place for 2021 - lowered ERV but still plenty to go for CEO was bullish to be expected but the FD less so Short term it will tread water imv and even as the vaccine works its way through society there is still the cloud over international tourism which will weigh on this all through 2021. It is now well funded but is probably the most philanthropic of all the REITs with its tenants but it really has no choice as the area is nothing if its full of voids. Is it only CAPC interest that is keeping it propped up though?

[buoycat] 22/11/2020 12:56

My modest holding entitled me to 26 new shares. I applied for 250 and appear to have got them all. Let's hope it's not throwing good money after bad!

[konradpuss] 19/11/2020 21:33

I see C & C Plc have raised a bond on part of their Shaftesbury holding. Don't they get it? Buy something clever with cash and avoid debt. Why did Shaftesbury raise money recently - guess what, too much debt. Sorry to say next year will be super tough and cash will be king.

[dartboard1] 19/11/2020 16:11

Average cost is looking good after today... one to sit on now for three years

[hindsight] 19/11/2020 14:38

I was thinking broker had made error, thanks for posting. Got the standard few + 60% in the excess application. The news release read alot less, imagine other holders in the nominee didnt apply.

[phillis] 19/11/2020 14:14

well that is a v pleasant surprise Asked for 7000 and got 3421! The balance of subscription monies has yet to make an appearance though....

[hindsight] 10/11/2020 17:35

Doubt will get much oversubscription allocation in the OFS now

[phillis] 10/11/2020 09:41

with results of Offer for subscription at £4 to come - maybe

[undervaluedassets] 09/11/2020 20:37

For once in my life in on the ground floor. Got really cheap due to COVID . Filled my boots today and now ready for the long recovery. Don't care it is takes 6 months or 6 year. Once in lifetime opp today. I hope everyone on this board took full advantage

[essentialinvestor] 23/10/2020 11:03

Philis, I don't drink regularly due to health, so you are probably asking the wrong person!. In my local area the Flintgate in Oatlands, Weybridge has a good reputation.

[phillis] 23/10/2020 10:22

Essential Which is your local pub of choice

[nickrl] 22/10/2020 21:38

EI my sentiments exactly that moratorium extension is almost inevitable with Tier 2 & 3 areas growing daily now along with increased costs to support staff. Its clear that restrictions even when imposed are having limited, if any, impact so this situation can only resolved by a national lockdown. Problem is govt continues to believe there are silver bullets to this situation and have learnt nothing from March by continuing to be reactive after the horse has bolted. So there is no way now the country we will be back to Tier 1 by Xmas so December becomes March and probably June 21 before moratorium is relaxed. The only saving grace is currently majority of landlords and tenants have come to agreements so unless tenants start reneging rental income shouldn't be majorly impacted, unless t/o linked, but how long before recessionary impacts start to inflict the property market im not so sure. Trading the pull backs feels an appropriate strategy but even there you can be badly caught out by an SHB type cash call who clearly thought the banks wouldn't stand behind them.