Shaftesbury Share Discussion Threads

[konradpuss] 03/8/2020 20:02

Down at bit today - I guess Bicknell has not resigned!

The Puss having a laugh.

[konradpuss] 30/7/2020 20:24

I see a bit of an up tick today.

Maybe Bicknell has resigned!

[konradpuss] 29/7/2020 08:48

hindsight - they are allowing a direct path to the Supreme Court.

[hindsight] 29/7/2020 08:26

Business interuption case finishes on 30th so judgement soon but no doubt will be appealed whatever the outcome

[konradpuss] 28/7/2020 17:49

Essential, as to Great Portland Estates, I do not think they will go bust! Plenty of liquidity however just in the wrong location and sector.

As an aside I did see Egerton Capital (I rate the founder very highly) took a 5% stake in The Berkeley Group a day or so back. They traded Berkeley a few years back and did very well, however got out early. Not a bad thing that.

[essentialinvestor] 28/7/2020 15:35

It's gone up, need to sit down.

[essentialinvestor] 28/7/2020 10:11

konrad, do you have any view on Great Portland and if so
at what type of level you might see GPOR as attractive?, thanks.

[essentialinvestor] 27/7/2020 22:47

Some UK cyclicals began weakening (again) from around Wednesday last week.

RYA statement today marked a change in tone in now anticipating a subdued airline
market for an extended time. Tbf Michael's previous view looked too optimistic.
SHB estate obvs benefits significantly from overseas tourism and the reverse applies.

GRG statement tomorrow may be an interesting read. Hold a small amount however
they don't look particularly cheap to me, market may see it differently.

[nickrl] 27/7/2020 22:17

Konrad currently around 1 in 7 international flights are running to UK compared to last years schedule and with US a mess and us falling out with China two of the biggest spenders wont be back for a while yet. So share price bound to drift but will CAPC bid for the lot or try and engineer a merger?

[konradpuss] 27/7/2020 20:47

And for those who don't remember, my valuation was £2.12.

[konradpuss] 27/7/2020 18:19

I just wonder what Sammy Lee is thinking now and what was his motivation to sell. I would love to know as he is a very bright fellow.

I was always worried about affordability of the rent Shaftesbury were charging its tenants.

If tourism is going to be bad for two to three years and office workers do work from home much more, my valuation might well come to pass.

[hindsight] 27/7/2020 11:23

Essential, that is the $1m question. My thinking is the high covid wash cities will do better, or maybe I should say less bad, this winter than those with low previous infections

Maybe of interest

[essentialinvestor] 25/7/2020 12:20

hindsight, appreciate your view.

My concern, as outlined here previously, is we are hit by a second large COVID wave
in autumn/winter. While this may not result in such widescale lockdowns again,
it would be highly corrosive for confidence. I'm not sure how this eventuality can
be avoided given no wildly available vaccine options until early 2021, at best.
Very much hope I'm wrong on a second wave.

[hindsight] 24/7/2020 08:38

Added few today. Good to see Korandpuss you have come round to thinking the yield curve fall now has some value at offsetting some of the higher credit risk here now. Another theory I have is, like EssentialInvestor, that fiat currencies, which are being printed like topsy. Effect is seen in gold which has negative carry ie 0.25% to store but has risen on 0% rate curve and locks in inflation. Could it be arguesd that if SHB can maintain -0.25% income loss its similar long term. Some comparisons below, note prices to 1st March, £ Gold +18% from then so we would be getting in sight of the ratio lows in the past if updated to now

Note I have only briefly checked the chart data is correct

[essentialinvestor] 23/7/2020 21:14

If we get renewed equity volatility, cyclicals are likely to take another hit,
stress on IF. Might be worth staying mindful of.

[deadly nightshade] 23/7/2020 20:32

Essential you seem to know a bit about REITS can you run your eye over UAI and let us know what you think, i'm invested there and would be interested in your opinion thanks

[konradpuss] 23/7/2020 17:03

Essential, looks like their final Central residential has gone well.

I spoke to a West End office agent today. He is predicting a mass exodus from the West End.

[essentialinvestor] 23/7/2020 16:06

Konrad, Helical update looks decent given circumstances, its essentially now
a pure office play. Hold a few.

[konradpuss] 22/7/2020 20:52

Essential, sorry to say I think your turn of phase is perhaps not correct - "SHB will only recover fully ......

In real terms it will never recover fully in my opinion.

The rents (on the retail and office - residential perhaps not so) will be less in real terms going forward.

The yield is more interesting. The cost of borrowing might stay low still further into the future.

That could put a prop under the yield (capitalisation rate).

[essentialinvestor] 22/7/2020 20:33

SLI and GPOR up for me today, however many of the REITS are looking unwell.

Added two small lots of SHB earlier, still a very small position
as we may get a CAPCO type reaction on the next SHB update.

Looking to add Great Portland and TRY lower, if available.

The Government aims to have 500,000 UK residents on a COVID vaccine trial by
October, which sounds an extraordinary number.


SHB will only recover fully once overseas travel and tourism returns, London office workers returning
also an important part of this process.

[konradpuss] 22/7/2020 20:13

Hindsight, a good take. I do however think that the detail in 'Boris the Buffoon's' new planning proposals - no planning consent required to turn a commercial building to residential will have some caveats. I am sure Westminster will also have something to say.

It's like permitted development from office to residential - local authorities were allowed to tinker and contract out.

I see it dipped below a fiver again today. Essential might have got out by the skin of his teeth!

[hindsight] 22/7/2020 10:20

At some point with new planning changes do these ships (SHB and PCL) not cross if prime has a good bid ?
SHB £2.5bn (equity value and debt) / 1.9m sqft = £1315 sqft vs PCL at £1500/£2000 sqft

[konradpuss] 21/7/2020 19:23

Essential, I do think you should be very, very careful of Central London and City exposure. It's going to take a long time for people to return to offices and retail in those locations.

By the way I am still very bullish of Central London (PCL), however in the medium term and not for retail or offices, however I am for residential.

PCL (Prime Central London) residential has been getting kicked for years now - stamp duty etc. It's going to 'come back' before offices or retail - I generalise mind.

[essentialinvestor] 21/7/2020 18:55

Konrad, we look near a summer low in UK covid case (really hope I'm wrong on that).
The situation come mid September may look less sanguine.

Bought a very small amount of CAPCo this AM.

Expected GPOR to be available lower down, however the wider MCX held up today.
DLN less exposed to resturants/retail than Great Portland. Sold my DLN purchase from last week.