Mirriad Advertising Share Discussion Threads

[kaos3] 05/11/2024 17:10

TBTT - thank you.

so even in the future - no such clauses can be expected. meaning miri has no future

[tickboo] 05/11/2024 16:35

What mirriad needs to do is accelerate its revenue growth in order to stop the cash burn. Even their broker has them at less cash at YE than last year and has a £4m loss pencilled in for 2025 so a raise early next year inevitable. Mirriad said they would update the market in Q4 regarding revenues as their guide of £1.5m to £3m rather broad. These fluffy RNS reach do not cut it. Money talks so I am interested to see the next regulated RNSs that drop. Funny how they published a regulated RNS to tell us TripleLift had partnered to deliver programmatic in April but they just casually mention in a presentation in Sept they walked away.

[last of the mohicans] 05/11/2024 16:27

I was just doing a refresh of my Mirriad news searches & I see the story is even being carried by the FT



That's more coverage than you get with an official RNS for goodness sake :) including "Shares Magazine" & several others.

Might put the Mirriad name onto a few peoples minds.

What your looking for next is follow-up news in the next few days, to drive home the thought that things are actually really starting to happen now with this company.

LOTM

[kaos3] 05/11/2024 15:30

if IP were the problem I would assume that all new production would have a clause in it to be used for immersive advertising. as far as i know - it does not

[tigerbythetail] 05/11/2024 15:25

The research is the typical flim that advertising agencies get up to justify their retainers to their clients.
The big issue remains - into what visual product are they going to insert these ads, given that the vast majority of popular entertainment product is legally out of bounds?

[tickboo] 05/11/2024 08:15

At face value this is impressive. Not sure many current holders recall the fanfare when the Kantor research on mirriad was published. Much fanfare and again impressive results from an independent market leading research co. It was meant to be the catalyst for an increase in sales. It didn't happen. The issue isn't the format's effectiveness it's being able to sell at scale. No programmatic, no automation of inserts and I now believe more importantly getting stakeholders permission the biggest barrier. Notice this is an RNS reach so not material. A decent pump and dump en route. The question is can those looking for a quick buck sell near the top.The next RNS should be material and will tell us whether Mirriad can make it to June before they will either need to have raised cash or go under. From the interim RNS -We expect to be able to update shareholders further in Q4 on both the progress of the pipeline deals referenced above as well as the agency partnerships

[last of the mohicans] 05/11/2024 08:06

I emailed Mirriad 1st thing on Friday about putting the announcement out this way if they didn't feel it merited a full RNS at this time. So that investors we're aware of the progress that has been now been made.

Yes "Measurement" is a vital part of what Brands/Multinationals want. Its one thing to independently show that VPP works in studies etc. Its then on a completely different level to again show independently that in real life situations that it gives that compelling uplift in sales & RIO.

LOTM

[tickboo] 03/11/2024 18:40

partners soon realise it is not worth their while so more have to be signed just to sustain poor revenues. I remember 3 years ago Disney was signed as a strategic partner on a 2 year deal which seemed a watershed moment. What happened? No uptick in revenue and no RNS to say the 2 year deal had been extended or ended but we know from the revenue it didn't work and we know from their KPIs they didn't resign. Many minnows can claim large brand partners but when said partners are spending less it should ring alarms. TripleLift was worthy of an RNS to accelerate programmatic but silence when it walked away. Even the auditor refused to carry on and why did they get to replace? A company with little if any PLC experience or clients. People continue to buy shares when they have reduced guidance and a raise needed in H1 next year. Crazy.

[tickboo] 03/11/2024 17:22

Even not understanding the nuances as someone who works in the space does it seems clear to me there is no sustainable business model. I was suckered in here years ago as the story very compelling as their partners were. That was years ago. Revenues stagnated and in actual fact demand side fell massively in H1. There is clearly an issue and always has been. Hence a Netflix, HBO, Omicron or other major player whether a producer or agency hasn't just bought mirriad and it's supposed wonderful IP for peanuts. They could buy Mirriad for a pittance or indeed develop their own if worthwhile. I know Amazon asked students to try and automate the insertions which couldn't be done but they did look at it and walked away which was 2021 or 22. Tripelift who were essential to getting programmatic ready signed in April and walk away within months. Says it all.

[tigerbythetail] 03/11/2024 16:37

Yes. All of it - functionally worthless.
The tech talk that MIRI engage in is actually pretty amusing if you have any history in VFX. I actually swapped out lettering on packets / changed posters on walls etc. in advertising back in the digital Stone Age using an ACE 100 (c. 1993). And then came HAL / Henry and made everything easy.
Track, insert, light, drop shadow - for crying out loud, you could do it now on "Prosumer" software like Final Cut Pro and Adobe After FX.
NOTE: this wasn't inserting other people's ads into an existing ad! This was adapting, say, P&G ads for different markets in Europe - changing languages and packages and dubbing voices and so on. So no rights issues. But the actual technical problem is the same.
MIRI is pretty comical from where I am sitting.

[last of the mohicans] 03/11/2024 15:36

TigerByTheTail,

Thanks again for the input.

I take it by your posts then, that you've never actually (or certainly not in the last 3 month's) looked at the various showreels or watch the last webinar ?

Yes, I'm well aware of all the production shutdowns that occurred in the USA in 2023 due to disputes etc

You're also saying the 37 patents are literally worthless as well.

LOTM

[tigerbythetail] 03/11/2024 15:13

No, I've never traded MIRI. (And as an investor I never short.)
I just happen to work in the field. MIRI's pitch to a professional is plainly ludicrous. Your posts entirely miss the point - you seem convinced that there is mass market where there isn't one, and never can be. In other words, you've been taken in by a load of fluff and hype (very usual in the advertising world - I know, I've shot a couple of hundred of TVCs in my time).
There is no technological barrier ("moat") to entry in this market. I could do most of what MIRI do on the computer I'm typing this (which to be fair is fairly advanced). In bulk, you would of course outsource to somewhere like the Philippines, where you can get cheap rotoscoping & compositing done in bulk. MIRI's technical pitch is baloney.
But the key problem is the legal issues, which you don't seem to be able to understand. I have shared rights in several pieces of valuable intellectual property, including studio pictures and syndicated TV, and I receive royalties from them.
To insert product placement in post in them would involve:
a. A huge chain of file extraction, re-formatting, and re-verification, which would cost thousands of bucks on its own. (i.e. re-do "delivery" each time - a nightmare);
b. Getting clearance from all actors, writers, directors and producers of said shows, negotiating both an appropriate fee plus convincing them that there would be no reputational damage. Speaking for myself, I'm highly unlikely to agree to anything of the kind except for silly money. Lawyers' fees alone might easily run to 6 figures. (Can I see total billing of $500/hr x 200 hrs on this - oh yes, easily!)
This is NEVER going to be economic and/or feasible. It's just a bad idea for a business. I assume that MIRI themselves know this because it's pretty basic - certainly the CEO's incredibly high wages indicate that he thinks it is a "take the money and scarper" proposition.
Best of luck whatever you decide, but I expect MIRI to fail. With near 100% certainty.

[last of the mohicans] 03/11/2024 13:28

Hi TigerByTheTail,

I've ended up writing the piece in the meantime so here it is.

1) If you go back to what was said in the Webinar, you'll realise that Mirriad shares your concerns around the "legal rights" of the original content. That is why it won't go near live sports (until the issue is fully addressed) & has now backed away from the "influencer" space for the same reason because of what Brands/Multinationals are telling them.

Films / TV series / Music Video etc Mirriad are happy to do. Importantly its not Mirriad who sort out the legal stuff & ensure all the legal rights are in place, That's the Content Providers role in all of this (which is I think a key point you've missed)

Now that VPP is known & wanted by Brands/Multinationals at scale, the Content Providers will start to insist that new content created for them, has clauses inserted into it, that allow for VPP to happen & how the revenue generated by it is divided up to everyone (actors/creators included) in the future.


2) Mirriad only does VPP into scene's approved by the Brands/Multinationals & its those same Brands/Multinationals who provide what's to be inserted into the scene.

The only bit the Brands/Multinationals won't control is the bit where the AI decides which one of the options given to it, it gives to a particular viewer.

By that I mean the Brands/Multinational might have provided the same insert in Spanish/English or like in the Tecate section at the end of the showreel various different products of there's for use depending on which one the AI thinks resonates best with that particular viewer.


3) This one is really hard to answer, because no figures have been publicly disclosed for us to trace them from start to finish. The company has said a 20-25% cut of the revenue in Europe/ROW & 25-30% in the USA. You believe them to be much lower, I'm not sure exactly how much lower?

I honestly doubt, we'll ever get to see the true figures because of how fractured the whole process is. In theory we can work backwards to some extend. The £1.4M of USA revenue in 2023 would mean, advertisers (Brands/Multinationals) spent around £7m on VPP (with your view that number would need to be a lot higher).

The only bit we can see & get a sense of its once the revenue/cash hits Mirriad where the gross margin is meant to be around 85%.

If the $20-$40M contract had gone through, it would have been a very large chunk of the 2024 number, which would have given us some good insight into the true margin (but only if that wide ballpark figure was narrowed down somewhere).


4) You talk about it being a niche market, yet at the same time believe competitors will want to enter that same space & compete. So if it was that niche why would they bother to even consider it, unless it was very lucrative ?

Even within TV Series & Film's, VPP is only suitable for certain things, because they want it to be contextual between the content & the product. Mirriad have made that very clear.

The USA major & supermajor's wouldn't be wasting there time, money & effort on VPP if they didn't think it would work & Brands/Multinationals wouldn't want to get involved if it risked a Brands reputation. So if its worthwhile for the big players financially, then that translates into a significant difference to a company of Mirriad's size that's for sure.

I would have loved that $20-40M "upfronts" deal to have happened as it would have given proof that VPP could be achieved at that scale & that it provided the benefits expected for the Brand/Multinational involved.

Then the next question becomes does that Brand/Multinational repeat the order the following year to that same scale or bigger ? (further validation / or doubts about repeatability) & does it force its competitors in the same market sectors to do VPP at scale as well, to try & stop the loss of market share they've just suffered ?

That's what I'd like to be debating, but for now those are questions for the future.

You might want to point to the loss of the "upfronts" contract, Mirriad wasn't party to those discussions at all & I'm not sure how much detail they got afterwards around "clearance" & what that all entailed (or the definition of clearance). The overall outcome was terrible all round, everyone lost out, but especially Mirriad because of its size (yes the money loss)but more importantly what I've just described, the validation it would have brought them now it knocks all of that back 12 months.

LOTM

[last of the mohicans] 03/11/2024 10:08

Hi TigerByTheTail,

Thank you for your concerns,

I have read a number of your previous posts concerning Mirriad.

I guess in summary these are the issues highlighted in them that need addressed?

1) Legal Permissions etc Regarding all the creators of the original content
2) Advertisers (Brands/Multinational) Approval & control (for there reputation)
3) Mirriad's share of the revenue etc
4) Tiny Niche market/space

So I will write back to you on all of them, but while I'm writing the piece, can you please answer the following for me as your answers may save me needing to write as much detail as I might otherwise have to do.

Have you watched the whole of the recent Webinar ?
Have you visited the Mirriad Website in recent times & viewed all the show reels ?

& just for disclose purposes, do you currently hold any Mirriad shares ? or an open short/long position on Mirriad ?

Have you made or lost money on trading Mirriad to date ?

Thanks in advance.

LOTM

[tickboo] 01/11/2024 13:47

The below post illustrates LTOM hasn't a clue what he's doing. They raised money in May and were running on fumes (according to the co they had enough cash until end of August) and even if they had another 9 months of cash the auditor would need at least 12 months to sign off as a going concern (from the date the accounts are signed off rather than year end). Remember they raised in May and the accounts need signing off June 30 or get suspended. Given they will have less cash this year end they will surely look to raise money early Q1 as they left it incredibly late this year yet LOTM wrote (in his truly sorry post) -yes i did know a fund raise was a possibility, but i didn't see it coming so soon & its slightly larger than the £5m max requirement that i thought they might needed.

[tickboo] 01/11/2024 13:40

My motives are genuine. I had lost a lot of cash here and have traded it to reduce said losses. The most I made was shorting it in March which significantly reduced my losses. I still have a 500k hedge if this comes good.I genuinely think this is a lifestyle business and will continue to warn others. Of course the CEO could pull something out of the bag in which case I have a lttle skin in the game but his record strongly suggests they will have a lot less cash than last Dec and will need a very painful raise. I don't currently have a short position here but unless there are some serious material RNSs soon I will be taking one out (if I am able all the way down here) early next year.As for shameless, I have written honest views and to be fair they have come home to roost. While you were on here apologising having encouraged others to buy before such an obvious raise I was warning and really warned once I had a short on. You buys with your ramping got the share price higher which made my mind up re a short. Cheers. I hope those you persuaded to invest have also been trading this too and reduced their losses

[last of the mohicans] 01/11/2024 13:36

There you go the truth has finally been outed - If you can believe it - that all those losses have somehow been massively reduced & LL has been saturating the BB with negative posts for month's for there own gains while accusing others of ramping.

Absolutely Shameless.

LOTM