Mirriad Advertising Share Discussion Threads

[tickboo] 20/10/2024 05:48

We know Netflix and other streaming, media cos and advertising agencies were not interested in buying a distressed and vulnerable MIRI last year. We know MIRI went from 3 strategic partners to just 1 and we know demand side if falling. Is this because (as mentioned by a posted on advfn) getting permission from all the stakeholders post production very hard. Remember some stars are affiliated with brands or becomes affiliated post production so dropping a rival's branding in difficult to do, as well as other actors who want money for additional revenues, different producers affiliated with different brands, different agencies etc. Amazing MIRI only mentioned this issue recently when it was flagged a couple of years ago.No wonder no material RNSs have been published for a long time and no wonder the major programmatic partner walked away months after signing up, they looked under the bonnet and didn;t want to commit resources to it. Also, the insertions have to be done manually (remember Amazon asked PHD students to see if they could automate it but was more than trricky). Likely a small niche market.https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2024/1018/1476127-netflix-quarterly-results/

[last of the mohicans] 20/10/2024 04:08

I suggest anyone wanting to read & fully understand this post reads my initial 4 posts on the thread "Lost Sight of the Overall Prize / Outcome" on LSE (or post 3819 here) from 11th October 2024 first of all & comments on the "Raise" thread from 13th October to Merciaman for potential risks as well.

I wouldn't normally go about doing a potential valuation this way, but by doing so I'm leaving the rest to your own imagination & calculations, as to what might happen further down the line.

Just to be clear for transparency, yes it might not even get it this initial valuation of mine should end to end Programmatic fail to occur or VPP fail to live up to expectations in the next 8 months or so & could go broke in a worst case scenario.

So we know from the September Webinar that one major brand/multinational was prepared to spend between $20-40M on VPP with a content provider & the biggest one of the 40% signed up with Mirriad has 16% of the USA market.

Mirriad net share of that is between 25-30% (I've used 25%) & the gross margin is meant to be mid 80's but I've used 80%. Mirriad's annual running cost are around $12M.

So Mirriad would have got between 33% & 66% of its annual running costs from just this 1 transaction ($20M*25%*80%=$4M)

So what would it take to have a £6M annual profit ?

$100M*25%*80%=$20M less $12M annually = $8M or a little over £6M

What P/E ratio should such a business be valued at ?

I'm going to say 6 times is a reasonable starting point

So that would give Mirriad a market value of around £36M which is around 3.5p per share or 10 times the current share price.

Remember Mirriad has @ 40% of the USA market signed up & is negotiating with another 48% of the market. Also major brands/multinationals don't limit there ad spending to just one Content provider.

I'll leave the rest to everyone's own imaginations & the risk / reward profile

LOTM

[last of the mohicans] 14/10/2024 22:41

Univision which is one of Mirriad's Diverse Media partners in its Diverse Marketplace, recently held a townhall in Nevada for Harris & is holding one in Florida for Trump 16th October.



They are both seriously targeting Latino Voters in the swing states!

Now whether any of this leads to Mirriad's VPP getting any Ad-$ we simply don't know, but it's going to be hard to find anything closer to it doing so - evidence wise.

LOTM

[paulscb] 13/10/2024 11:47

"Which brings my total holding to 10.85M"Congratulations! You now hold 1% of a soon to be bankrupt company.

[last of the mohicans] 12/10/2024 07:15

From the awards ceremony Wednesday night, supported by her Diverse Media Alliance colleague's



LOTM

[tickboo] 11/10/2024 06:32

We have had all this talk of huge TAM, deals close and potential realised soon. All the while 3p raise to break even, nope, 1.25p raise break even, nope. No programmatic, issues with permissions (as flagged by Tiger on here) and guidance of £1.5m (less than last year) to £3m which will be missed by a long shot and less cash at YE than last year. CEO takes £500k and his gravy train continues. Raise needed and will be worked on before YE or very soon after. Billions more shares en route and no doubt a lot less than the current price.

[last of the mohicans] 11/10/2024 00:36

We seem to have lost sight of the overall prize / outcome

I thought it was time for everyone to take a step back & to focus on the overall prize / outcome again.

2024 has had many challenges especially since April & virtually everyone has lost sight of the potential prize at the end of it all.

Some will say the failure to get end to end Programmatic up & running is the biggest failure of them all. Its certainly been a major setback that's for sure.

However the failure of that very large Upfronts contract to materialise due to the failure of the content provider to give the Brand (advertiser) the content clearance guarantee it required to go ahead with it, might actually have been the biggest of them all.

Even although neither of these 2 major events were within Mirriad's sole control.

Why was this Brand contract so important?

Well there are a couple of major reasons.

The contract not happening was a major loss all round, a significant loss of effectively free "extra" revenue for the content provider, as well as increased friction with both the Brand (especially) & Mirriad going forward. The Brand not getting to spend its advertising $ in the way it wanted to, to promote itself & to prove that backing VPP on this scale had the desired effect it wanted for the future.

Mirriad could really have done with the revenue this one Brand contract alone could have provided it with.

To put that in black & white for everyone, in Europe etc Mirriad gets 25-30% of the total brand ad-spend, in the USA its apparently a totally different overall mechanism to do the same thing & the outcome is 25-30% of the ad-spend.

You've then got to deduct our overall costs of doing the VPP work to generate that revenue, which is meant to be around 15% (hence the talk of a 85% or so gross margin) but I'm going to be a bit more conservative for now & use an 80% gross margin in my calculations.

Now the Brand contract in question related to a sum of between 20-40M the currency wasn't mentioned in the webinar, so lets go with $ as that gives us a lower outcome.

Why such a wide range ?

Well $20-40M is very wide range but this is an advanced commitment, the various show's/films/series that there going to put VPP in may end up being less or more popular than expected when they actually air & some will likely have a higher cost per 1000 views than others. I'm sure the Brand will have some flexibility around whether it can move some $ from one show/film/series to another etc as well.

Now Mirriad currently needs around £9M or $12M to reach break-even on an annual basis. This one Brand contract would have provided them with around 33% of that total (25% of $20M = $5M * 80% = $4M) at the lower end of the scale or up to 66% at the top end of it (25% of $40M = $10M *80% = $8M).

To put that further into context we're just talking about a single Brand here with just one Content Provider.

Let's assume that this contract was with the biggest of the current content providers Mirriad has signed up to VPP. Which equates to roughly 15% of the overall USA market. Now Mirriad has @ 40% of the USA market signed up - (but only 2 of the top 5 overall Content providers) & is in active discussions with another 48% of the USA market including the other 2 of the top 3 that aren't currently signed with us.

The Brand in question clearly has a large annual advertising budget for the USA market. Its simply not going to spend $20-40M with one Content Provider & not spend any ad-$ with all of the others! Yes it may have a slight preference for one over another but never the less its going to spend a lot of ad-$ with the other providers as well because the biggest content provider only has a 22% market share.

So I'd say in normal terms one would expect the said Brand to conservatively spend at least another $20-40M on the other 25% of the USA market Mirriad has signed up.

Now they might not have wanted to take that risk with VPP this year & decided to allocate much smaller amounts to the other content providers until the outcome of the $20-40M spend was known. If it was the success they & obviously Mirriad hoped it would be, then they would be spending similar % of the budgets with the other content providers in future years.

Just for comparison the largest amount spent by 1 Brand (or it could have been organisation with several brands under it) in 2023 was around £600K (source AGM) & the 3rd largest spend was around £100K.

So $4-8M (net to Mirriad) alone is in a completely different league & that's before taking into account what the Brand would spend with the other content providers.

And that's before we even get into diverse media spend for the Brand !

---------

So Yes, non-occurrence has not only denied Mirriad of critical revenue that would have saved it from having to do some of this cost cutting & in actual fact (in reality) stopped it from being break even or better in the very near term.

But more importantly it's stopped it from having the data to show to other Major Brands that VPP does work on a large scale & does provide the significant uplift per ad-$ spent that they are all looking for.

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I'll come back to company valuation on the back of the above in a future post, but in summary roughly $75M of ad-spend on VPP would see Mirriad reach at least break-even.

It could have been achieved with just 1 Brand & our 40% share of the USA market.

And if the case for VPP is so compelling for one Brand to do it on that scale, then its competitors would be forced to follow suit unless they wanted to lose significant market share to their rival.

Now VPP isn't suitable for everything, but there are certain area's of the advertising arena that it seems to suit well like auto, fast food delivery, multiple household products for the kitchen, bathroom etc & drinks (alcoholic or just soft ones).


LOTM

[tickboo] 10/10/2024 14:32

That is a huge number of shares. If your intention is to create tension for yourself I am sure you will succeed. If you get some decent material RNSs with revenues hitting this year perhaps not. If that is not the case there will be a raise soon enough and you will have the opportunity to lower your average by a fair whack.

[last of the mohicans] 10/10/2024 14:01

Well just for the record the 465,000 (0.384p) & 250,000 (0.389p) trades from this morning were mine.

Which brings my total holding to 10.85M

My current intension is to keep hold of 10M shares & will trade the rest when appropriate to do so with the aim of trying to build the position further through the re-investment of some of any profits that are made etc

LOTM

[tickboo] 10/10/2024 06:05

I see a massive pump going on here. Like Cannes Mirriad has attended such events for many years and all that's happened is more partners but stagnating or even falling revenues. Remember H1 was down 33%. Some TA guy saying a gap at 8p, I mean mirriad is expected to turnover £1.5m to £3m this year with large losses and will end the year with less cash than last year but yeah it should be valued at £80m. I mean no one wanted to buy mirriad when it was up for sale and they could have thrown a lot less at it but there was no buyer. Programmatic was meant to be Mirriad's saviour in terms of accelerating revenues but that's been delayed as the main partner walked away after a few months as they clearly didn't see any legs in it. No timeline has been given for when it will be ready. Is it because of issues getting permission from all the stakeholders lawyers post production (they've already said it's an issue as pointed out by a poster on advfn over a year ago) but whatever the reason Tripelift was the exciting main programmatic partner that walked away. Not good. Also H1 shows a really worrying slowdown in demand side. Active agency relationships down 33% and number of clients running campaigns down 19% and they've only got 1 strategic partnership from 3 a couple of years ago. That's not good. The pipeline clearly poor and a raise like I said last year will be en route soon enough. The auditor won't sign off the accounts so they'll look for more money end of this year or early next and it will be more than 100% dilution.I suspect the pump will continue until the dumping starts.

[last of the mohicans] 09/10/2024 23:47

Mirriad shows how to use AI effectively in advertising today – with this reel for the use of virtual placement for e.g. B. H&M, Starbucks and Otto.
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Incidentally, one of the leading retailers achieved a 16 percentage point increase in purchase intention with its current virtual placement campaign. 😊
Want more? Click here for all the advantages and other cool examples:


The link takes you to ..........



Certainly looks like they are trying to ramp things up in Germany

LOTM

[last of the mohicans] 09/10/2024 23:21

I was doing a little digging around & just found out it is Adweek in New York, thanks to a linked-in "like" by the Mirriad CEO.

So why on earth would you send your main "networker" (or charismatic people person) Maria Teresa Hernandez to CA during that time period (7 - 10th October) especially when she has to be at the awards ceremony on the evening of 9th October !

Now clearly she met some important people in CA & some of them might have travelled onwards with her to NY as well, but it seems to me that it would have to be something pretty special that you would give-up part of NY adweek, to do that, when you could have set-up the CA stuff for end of last week or even end of this week if push came to shove, (in case its to do with Latin Week next week) otherwise you could have found another suitable date for it.

I'm also guessing the CEO is in NY this week!

LOTM

[last of the mohicans] 09/10/2024 23:02

I just found this ...... yes I know its 7 month's old



It was inside this linked-in post



This one was posted just 2 days ago ........... & is Louis Wakefield's first linked-in message in over 5 month's ......



LOTM

[last of the mohicans] 09/10/2024 16:58

Courtesy of Bentley43 on LSE for anyone who doesn't use the site



LOTM

[last of the mohicans] 09/10/2024 16:52

Oh & for the record I bought another 35,000 shares 0.3895p

So that makes it 10.135 Million shares

LOTM

[last of the mohicans] 09/10/2024 16:24

Hmm just found this ...................



In the comments one of the guy's talks about a What's App group they have just set up ............

I wonder if that could be reason behind the sudden buying ?

Also of note is that Maria Teresa Hernandez only made the linked-in post 2 hours ago ! & talks about LA in it, yet she is in NY tonight for the CYNOPSIS awards !

LOTM

[last of the mohicans] 09/10/2024 14:20

Hmm something looks like its stirring ................

CEO mentioned 2 weeks & they would be speaking to the Super Major Content Provider Again & associated ad-tech company in the Webinar, I was giving it to the end of this week for that to have happened ...........

Tonight is also the CYNOPSIS awards where Maria Teresa Hernandez is due to receive her award !

There are a lot of big names meant to be there for her to network with ............... so maybe something has been set-up in advance of that !

LOTM

[last of the mohicans] 07/10/2024 22:17

This gives you a flavour of the size of the USA Political ad market .........



Now if Mirriad could capture just $10M of Election VPP Advertising that would equate to $2M+ of revenue for the company & totally change the complexation of its 2024 revenue stream.

So the next 30 days could be crucial, the 1st thing we'd like to hear is news of them getting at least 1 Political campaign agreed & done in the next 14 days. As that would give them data to show what positive effect (if any) VPP has in that arena, to put in front of both Political groups, to try & convince them to spend more $ this way. Otherwise, its going to be hard to make any meaningful contribution to the bottom line in those last 2 weeks.

LOTM

[tickboo] 02/10/2024 14:10

Generate quite a bit of cash. Funny as. Mirriad has never done that and this looks ludicrous. With all the stakeholders who are needed to sign off ads there is no way political ads would work. Ludicrous.

[last of the mohicans] 02/10/2024 11:29

Here are 2 very recent blog posts from Mirriad ............. both inside the last 24 hours I think ........

The 1st one is very interesting very short term but could generate quite a bit of cash in a hurry ..............





LOTM

[last of the mohicans] 30/9/2024 20:16

I found this some of you may like it some of you might not.

LOTM

[tickboo] 29/9/2024 09:50

I agree. CEO wants to run this as long as possible and take his 500k pa. The fall in demand side says it all. They will try and pump this up before I suspect dumping while some try and get what they can before the begging bowl inevitably comes out.

[tigerbythetail] 28/9/2024 20:36

Hi Tickboo!
Thanks for reposting my old post.
Yes, this is my line of work and yes, MIRI do not have a viable business plan, and never will have (except in certain tiny niches). There is no money to be made here.
Honestly, I'd call MIRI a scam.

[tickboo] 26/9/2024 21:22

Could say the same with BIDS and many an AIM lifestyle PLC. Having decent tech that cannot be monetised over a number of years when the CEO taking a massive package is a red flag. Same old jam tomorrow except their programmatic saviour is no nearer than it was last year or even 2 years ago. Less cash as at June 30th, less cash at year and begging bowl out Jan or Feb given they will not want to try any later. If IIs happy to invest more they'll want their pound of flesh so likely 5bn-10bn shares which will be a saviour as without it the auditor won't sign off the accounts and like BIDS and many others it's cheerio.

[casholaa] 26/9/2024 19:32

This company should be making money hand-over-fist.