Aviva Share Discussion Threads

[pete160] 28/10/2023 16:55

F-jack,
Given the market volatility, but also the opportunities around, I cannot see how anyone could justify going all in on one stock. I hold good % shares of my portfolio in Av. Lgen, Phnx and esp. MNG at present, but even that makes me nervous given the weighting towards financials - and uk financials at that.

Fortunately the dividends on each (which I consider to be relatively safe) help to offset that anxiety, but it's still there.

Though I still curse the weighting of Lloyds and RBS in 2008 because I felt they might be safe banks, and more recently FRES, bought - and still held, as a means of providing exposure to precious metals.

Carp.
True about the nice problem to have.

I may be wrong, but my view is that the price you bought at is not particularly relevant. It is the opportunity cost of the current price.

If the dividend on 1,000 shares is 300 gbp, it's likely to still be £ 300 or so whether your 1,000 shares are worth 3 bgp, 4 bgp or 6 gbp.

But if the dividend is 300 gbp and the share price is 6 gbp, you have an opportunity cost of attaining that, or more, elsewhere.

and if you purchased the 1,000 shares at 4 gbp, whilst your dividend may be the same, the yield percentage is reduced if the price increases to 6 gbp.

[gco1133a] 28/10/2023 16:44

Carpingtris the yield at purchase is a meaningless number, the only thing that matters is the yield at the current price so Pete160 is correct

[carpingtris] 28/10/2023 14:50

Pete160 _ surely the yield depends on the price you've brought at.

I think the issue is then where to place any proceeds for just as good a return/safety.

It's a dilemma... but either way would be a nice problem to have I guess.

[fatherjack3] 28/10/2023 14:45

If you could only go all in on one financial stock, which would it be? Phoenix is tempting because it appears to me ridiculously mispriced......priced as if it's in run off. However, bearing in mind the market can remain irrational longer than I can stay solvent I'd choose Aviva as my all in share. To my mind, a bomb proof share at a bombed out price.

[pete160] 28/10/2023 14:15

I'm not sure I follow the argument people put up about not wanting a takeover because if the price goes to say 6 gbp from 4 gbp, the yield reduces from c. 7.86 to 5.25 percent (all other things being equal).
Therefore, if a third party bids 6gbp I only have to find an alternative share yielding c. 5.25 to replace it (notwithstanding CGT on the sale before reinvestment).
I would miss the yield from Aviva, but would gain from having more money to invest in another share.

Yes, if someone came and bid for Av. Lgen, Phnx or MNG at a 20 percent premium, I would be pretty annoyed (though accepting that I cannot do much about it) but if someone comes and bids at a 50 percent premium, I would be happy to accept, take the cash and reinvest in another opportunity.

[garycook] 28/10/2023 00:59

TBH, I do not want AV taken over. I wish to retain for Income and growth !

[coxsmn] 27/10/2023 18:23

Of course everyones car insurance is up a lot due to high inflation, no need for a survey lol

[whatsup32] 27/10/2023 16:49

Very low volume, so much for three companies wanting to takeover:)

[garycook] 27/10/2023 01:01

Allianz it is then for the T/O of AV.

[richie1218] 26/10/2023 20:21

Ransomware attacks surge, highlighting need for detection, response tools: Allianz


Aviva: SMEs ‘woefully underserved’ for cyber cover.


Both Aviva and Allianz running cyber security articles today, it's like they are already one company :-)

[pvi1] 26/10/2023 14:35

I wouldn't be too concerned with anything Jibba says. He's a troll and has been trolling here for the last 3 years, everything he posts is purely to annoy people. He hasn't got a clue what he's talking about anyway.

[popit] 26/10/2023 14:16

cjac39

Did you see this message here two weeks ago?

Was interested to know why you did not include Phoenix in the list of undervalued shares?

“buying just, av, mng, l&g etc takes much less time. the us PE and alt asset mgrs will take over in time”

Do you also include Phoenix in this list of undervalued BPA companies? Are they also not quite big players?

And the Phoenix share price seems to be much weaker recently than Aviva, or L&G, or M&G

Do you think this price weakness for Phoenix is justified or not?

[popit] 26/10/2023 14:09

jubber said

Long AV. @ this level
Long Lgen @ 217.60 (biggest holding)
Long Phnx @ 521
Mng avoiding like the plague at moment

Why are you avoiding M&G ?

[carpingtris] 26/10/2023 13:08

Correct CWA1 :) was in relation to the earlier post suggesting a fall! But with reason.

Not quite posted enough irrelevant comments here to earn a one week ban yet!

[cwa1] 26/10/2023 12:04

Probably just a passing comment on the post above his re the fall on HFEL?

[spud] 26/10/2023 11:28

Not sure of the relevance here tris?

spud

[carpingtris] 26/10/2023 09:53

HFEL = xd today

[devonbeachbum] 26/10/2023 09:32

Fenners - no reply from Aviva investors on Aviva Investors Distribution, so no investment. Shame, cos they may have welcomed my £10 billion investment. Liking the fall on Henderson (HFEL) instead.

[muscletrade] 26/10/2023 07:55

Extract from II website.... although Deutsche Bank views pretty well known by now.

Positioning by Aviva as the Allianz SE
of UK insurance today ensured its high-yielding shares got top billing in a City bank’s review of the “attractively valued” sector.

Deutsche Bank names Aviva alongside Prudential
PRU
0.24%
, Direct Line Insurance Group
DLG
0.86%
and Legal & General Group
LGEN
0.44%
as having potential for re-rating over the next 12 months or where the shares have been oversold.
It notes that economic uncertainty and the switch to the IFRS 17 accounting standard has weighed on the sector, creating some attractive valuation multiples and an average 2025 total capital return yield of 7.4%.

Within the UK life sector, it highlights Aviva’s total forward yield of 12.3% as the FTSE 100 company’s dividend payments and an estimated £300 million a year of share buybacks look sustainable against cash and capital generation.

Deutsche Bank said: “We believe Aviva currently has the most clear (and believable) framework - which we think should allow it to trade at a premium to peers.

“Whilst it is still early days, we see the group positioning itself as the 'Allianz' of the UK insurers - where it returns a sustainable amount of excess capital to shareholders each year after considering organic and inorganic needs.”

Today’s note adds that the Legal & General will be a stock to watch once António Simões takes over from long-time chief executive Sir Nigel Wilson at the start of next year.

Deutsche Bank speculates whether a new capital management approach could see the group tame its bulk annuity growth expectations, instead deploying some of its excess capital to its investment management arm alongside greater returns to shareholders.

For now, the bank retains its “hold” recommendation on L&G but with a 41% upside in its price target to 290p and projected 2025 total capital return yield of 10.9%. Aviva, meanwhile, continues to have a 495p target price and “buy” rating.

While several UK insurance names have been trading at the cheaper end of their historical ranges, investors are being warned not to expect major catalysts until full-year results and strategy updates in the first part of 2024.

The chancellor's Autumn Statement is due next month but Deutsche Bank believes limited fiscal headroom will make this less impactful for the sector than in the past. On a brighter note, the bank’s economists are mildly more positive than expected on the 2024 outlook.

In non-life insurance, the bank believes Direct Line shares are deeply oversold after axing its dividend last year and could see a substantive re-rating in 2024 as price rises begin to be felt.

Much will depend on the strategy of incoming chief executive Adam Winslow, who the car insurer recently hired from Aviva’s UK and Ireland general insurance arm.

Deutsche Bank currently has a “hold” recommendation and 170p price target, adding that improved earnings momentum has already been captured in the shares of rival Admiral Group
ADM
1.02%
.

The other “buy” rating in the bank’s UK coverage is Prudential, which trades on 10 times forward earnings for a wider-than-usual 35% discount to peer AIA.

The valuation gap reflects significant concerns around the China economy but limited exposure to real estate means the bank thinks balance sheet concerns are overdone. Its target on Pru shares is 1,430p, representing a 75% upside.

[cjac39] 25/10/2023 23:17

Marksp do you have any interesting links on this?

[lippy4] 25/10/2023 22:53

the mo always shows up..

i do wonder what these people do in real life,work in the civil service comes to mind as working in the real world they would not last five minutes..

[rongetsrich] 25/10/2023 21:46

Defeatist attitude. If he changes handle the mask will slip again and again

[petersinthemarket] 25/10/2023 13:48

You cannot get rid of someone who wants to post - they come back with another avatar.