Aviva Share Discussion Threads

[roundtheworld] 09/10/2023 18:14

It doesn’t just illustrate how undervalued it is but also how well it’s run and how strong the business is. If there was FTSE jewell this would be in the running to be named it.

[yf23_1] 09/10/2023 16:47

The fact that there are unconfirmed reports of bidders just highlights the undervaluation of Aviva. Whether there is a bid or not doesn't factr in to my holding.

[richie1218] 09/10/2023 16:28

Aviva RSA takeover ‘could make sense’, reckon analysts
Published: 14:55 09 Oct 2023


Aviva PLC (LSE:AV.) is reportedly in talks to take over the consumer operations of rival RSA, despite Aviva being a takeover target in its own right.

Rationale for the RSA takeover appears to be to strengthen Aviva’s position in the UK non-life insurance market.

According to UBS analysts, this could be a potentially attractive combination, depending on the price.

USB said Aviva has the requisite cash and capital to make a bid somewhere in the £500 million to £700 million bracket.

As for a potential takeover of Aviva itself (Allianz, Intact and Tryg are being cited as possible buyers), UBS puts a 525p to 680p price tag on the deal, conforming to a speculative 600p takeover price mentioned in the press.

RSA is owned by Intact and its consumer business includes mostly home and pet insurance which could “diversify well with Aviva's life insurance business in the UK and Ireland”.

“A potential acquisition would also remain in line with Aviva's M&A strategy of ‘bolt-on M&A’ that adds to Aviva's strategic portfolio in capital-light areas,” said UBS.

[richie1218] 09/10/2023 16:26

Aviva in a much better position, deal for whole entity ‘nearly impossible’, says Deutsche Bank
9th October 2023 - Author: Luke Gallin

Analysts at Deutsche Bank have commented on last week’s media speculation suggesting UK insurer Aviva is a potential acquisition target, stating that it views a deal for the entire firm has nearly impossible, and even a sale of parts of the business as unlikely.

AvivaAs we wrote last week, Aviva’s shares increased almost 9% following articles from markets blog Betaville and The Times suggesting a number of European insurer’s were potential suitors of the London headquartered company.

Addressing the noise, Deutsche Bank notes that both articles were unsubstantiated with no sources identified, and that Aviva’s shares likely rose because of the credibility of The Times and the concrete nature of the wording around potential buyers.

Deutsche Bank has also spoken with Aviva, who informed that if it had been formally approached it would need to release a statement per the UK Takeover Code.

“Given that there has been no statement from Aviva, and nor from any potential bidders, we can at least say that no formal approach has been made for Aviva,” notes Deutsche Bank.

Ultimately, Deutsche Bank views a deal for the whole of Aviva as “nearly impossible,” and also feels that even a sale of parts of the business, such as non-life, is “unlikely given the work management has undertaken in reshaping the business.”

“Overall, we note that Aviva is in a much better position today than where it was almost four years ago, when Amanda Blanc joined as CEO,” says Deutsche Bank.

Deutsche Bank highlights the fact that since mid-2020, the insurer has become a much leaner group, having disposed of around £8 billion of non-core operations which saw it exit numerous regions and markets.

For Aviva, the focus is now on its core operations of UK and Ireland Life & Wealth, Aviva Investors, UK and Ireland General Insurance, and Canadian General Insurance.

At the same time, Aviva recently acquired AIG Life Limited from Corebridge Financial, Inc. for £460 million, which Deutsche Bank says supports its view that a sale of certain parts of the business is unlikely as it continues to take steps to improve the shape of the business.

Interestingly, Deutsche Bank also looks at the potential acquirers named in the media articles last week.

“We find it difficult to see a European insurer (Allianz or AXA) looking at Aviva. The former has already built up a position in UK non-life in recent years, and overweighting the UK would not make sense. Additionally, whilst Allianz has the resources, we believe shareholders would prefer to see a more balance split between bolt-on acquisitions and excess capital returns,” explains Deutsche Bank.

Regarding Canada’s Intact, analysts state that while there could be strategic sense in the firm looking at Aviva’s Canada or UK commercial lines, this would be challenging because it’s currently going through the takeover of DLG’s UK Brokered Commercial Lines, and growing its Canadian P&C market share to almost 30% “may be too close to the antitrust boundary.”

Tryg was also touted as a potential suitor, but Deutsche Bank notes the fact it’s integrating the Codan business and therefore may not have the capacity to look at another European non-life business.

All in all, analysts place “a very low probability that it could be a target, despite bid speculation in the media. Indeed, we believe that a deal for the whole entity is almost impossible – as a UK composite, it could be difficult to integrate easily elsewhere.”

[jubberjim] 09/10/2023 16:05

Popit

Stop pretending to be me I get enough in me ear already

But thank you for trying to share the weight brought down by the sycophants (you know who you are)

I'm loving the confusion

Concentrates the mind and leaves open opportunities elsewhere.

I might be wrong Colombus day in states so don t think markets open

But delighted to be proven wrong

See you at 309 (Amanda's point of entry)

Ceee yaaa

[smurfy2001] 09/10/2023 16:03

Popit, agree! Plus Aviva use to pay 30p+ dividend back in the day. We're just back to where we were.

[popit] 09/10/2023 15:58

pander45

“Blanc has done a stunning job so far”

Are you joking?

Since she became CEO three years ago the share price has barely moved and shareholders also have 25% fewer shares

What is so stunning about that?

It seems like a fairly poor or average performance for a CEO

Many people could probably have done a far better job and for far less pay

[smurfy2001] 09/10/2023 15:46

That negative article could also be trying to get the price down too.

[makinbuks] 09/10/2023 15:25

Thanks for posting cjac, the logic I believe is that each of the suggested suitors is constrained in what they can do rather than any question that the company is not valued at a bargain price

[richie1218] 09/10/2023 14:38

#663 It doesn't take long with a discussion on the phone or zoom.

"this is Alianze here - is that Aviva - yes it is - we fancy taking you over, how does £6 sound"
"AV - that's know where near enough for our great company - get lost"
end of discussion.

my point is the chairman bought shares over two weeks ago. plenty of time. :-)

[alphorn] 09/10/2023 13:57

#662. I doubt that source otherwise the Chairman would not have been allowed to buy any shares.

[smurfy2001] 09/10/2023 13:47

Don't forget "The Guardian" did mention this tidbit:

"A City source told the Guardian there had been some discussions with suitors."..

[skinny] 09/10/2023 13:42

Perhaps the article on Aviva weighing up a bid for RSA's UK consumer unit has more credence.

[pander45] 09/10/2023 13:39

Hardly the end of the world if no bid. Lots of miles to go with the great development of this company. Happy holder here. A divi bedrock for me. Blanc has done a stunning job so far.

[skinny] 09/10/2023 13:38

Thanks for that cjac39.

[cwa1] 09/10/2023 13:34

Nice article cjac39, hope you don't mind me re posting it as a clickable link:-

[pander45] 09/10/2023 13:21

Good article.

[cjac39] 09/10/2023 13:16

hxxps://www.reinsurancene.ws/aviva-in-a-much-better-position-deal-for-whole-entity-nearly-impossible-says-deutsche-bank/


im not sure of the logic in here. its all much better than 4 years ago when she took over and throws off lots of cash but is valued lower than 2018 on a like for like basis and therefore isnt likely for sale?

[pander45] 09/10/2023 12:28

Thanks for clarifying that.

[smurfy2001] 09/10/2023 12:16

Pander45, I reinvest the dividend so yes I'm getting more yield if it drops further.

[pander45] 09/10/2023 12:08

US looks weak, indexes down this PM I suspect.....

[pander45] 09/10/2023 12:07

No you're not, if you say in you're getting the yield you bought at. Unless you buy more when it drops THEN you're getting more yield.

[peart] 09/10/2023 12:06

This reminds me a bit of when Pfizer actually did offer £69 Billion for Astrazeneca. The offer was rejected. The company is now worth £169 billion.

Behind the scenes perhaps similar stuff has gone on. Who knows.....

[smurfy2001] 09/10/2023 12:05

prokartace, rather be in than out. If the price retraces i'm getting more yield.