Aviva Share Discussion Threads

[charlotte2020] 08/10/2023 13:19

How do you know that?

[smurfy2001] 08/10/2023 13:05

ISA, SIPP, shares account and a small leveraged position. It’s my largest holding in the portfolio as it’s paying me the most in dividends.

[mountpleasant] 08/10/2023 12:40

Annual tax-free allowance of 1270... 33% tax on the rest of any capital gain.

[kasamavic] 08/10/2023 12:32

What's the CGT limit over there?

[mountpleasant] 08/10/2023 11:57

We dont have ISA in Ireland.
I own them personally.

[sarahbudd] 08/10/2023 11:53

And surely you have them in ISA or SIPP ?

[peart] 08/10/2023 11:26

I'm curious as to how you know you have more units than most people on this board mountpleasant? Wow, you must be a very important person!

[peart] 08/10/2023 11:24

Agreed Andyble.

Also, if this did get Aviva moving and say another UK ftse100 company had interest in it via a takeover, a match could be lit under the whole UK market. Simply a sudden recognition and final acknowledgement that the UK is cheap and people don't want to miss out. No one rings a bell with such stuff and "the experts" are often very clever months after the event. Who knows, but at some stage I'm confident that the UK will outperform. It's just a question of when.

[andyble] 08/10/2023 11:02

I also thought the most telling snippet in the press was the "A City source told the Guardian there had been some discussions with suitors."

In my experience there in no smoke without fire and in these situations if no fire then one is quickly lit and it all becomes self fulfilling. Human nature and the fear of missing out busies the bankers towards fertile pastures and once that tide has started then the outcome is inevitable especially with the low priced fruit like this no matter what the size and regulatory hurdles.

Moreover Amanda and team will be frustrated that their efforts to make the business work are going unrecognised in the share price and this may very possibly always be so within the duration of their watch.

The board and management will conclude that they have a duty to shareholders and stakeholders to either continue breaking the group up, or to auction it off as a whole whilst the bait is there of a low share price and a rejuvenated higher margin growing business.

Aviva in play will likely yield the best result and here we are by design or not. I remember bravely and correctly forecasting for a previous holding of mine that it would be under offer by the year end in exactly these circumstances. I am going to say this again for Aviva. It is in play now whether they like it or not and the momentum will be with the merit of the outcome for the board and shareholders.

[muscletrade] 08/10/2023 10:56

To be clear, I am not rubbishing Mr Lynns piece out of hand as he makes some valid points.There is however a tendency to catastrophise everything in the press these days (sometimes with good reason) and Telegraph commentators joined this habit with joyful abandon quite some time ago.

[kasamavic] 08/10/2023 10:52

I suppose the press have nothing else to add yet until the results of any talks come to light.

[muscletrade] 08/10/2023 10:46

Here you go. It was also in the Telegraph this morning.

Retirement giant backs UK gilts amid bond market rout
Phoenix Group moves money into government debt amid confidence in interest rate peak
By
Szu Ping Chan
and
Eir Nolsøe
8 October 2023 • 6:00am
The UK’s biggest long-term savings and retirement business has started buying gilts for the first time in two years despite a renewed bout of bond market turmoil.

Phoenix Group, which manages £269bn on behalf of 12 million customers, said it now believed gilts offered “good value” relative to other assets and had started moving money into British government debt.

Phoenix, which owns insurer Standard Life, started selling gilts at the beginning of 2022, dumping billions of pounds of UK assets amid concerns that the Bank of England had been consistently behind the curve on inflation.

However, Mike Eakins, the company’s chief investment officer, said Phoenix was now more confident that UK interest rates had peaked after Threadneedle Street held borrowing costs at 5.25pc in September.

The decision to hold rates unchanged for the first time since 2021 came after official figures showed inflation eased to 6.7pc in August.

Mr Eakins said Phoenix was now “rotating out of non-GBP credit into gilts”.

It comes amid a renewed sell-off in global government debt that has seen UK yields rise above their mini-Budget levels. Long-term borrowing costs rose to their highest in 25 years last week.

[lord gnome] 08/10/2023 10:45

I take it from the absence of excited comments that the Sunday press is not headlining news about an imminent takeover offer.

[muscletrade] 08/10/2023 10:33

Maybe you missed the comments by Phoenix head of investment who has advised that they are now buying gilts again after a few years of leaving them alone. He reckons now is a good time to start buying.

[muscletrade] 08/10/2023 10:25

Careful, You're talking about Matthew Lynns piece in the Telegraph this morning. That could have been written every October for the last 40 years. maybe he'll be right one day.If you think he's right sell everything tomorrow.

[careful] 08/10/2023 10:18

Todays Telegraph writes an excellent and well researched article entitled 'Is Britain heading for another Black Monday'.

The were talking bout the collapse the bond markets and increase of interest rates.
Governments Worldwide have too much debt and still carry on spending for political reasons.
Stock markets are way overvalued, but the article did say that the UK was not.

But this article is one of several.

The very smart gut who runs JP Morgan Chase, Jamie Dimon thinks interest rates in the USA will reach 7% and has taken out a huge put option on the American market.
He is one of a few worth listening to, as well as Buffett and Munger.

If American Bond yields rise then so will ours as investors dump UK gilts to buy American.

[cjac39] 08/10/2023 09:31

isnt it ever thus every october? if you take a step back, large insurers like allianz struggle to excite above 12% roc. on a plate, even at £6, aviva offers the chance to buy a decent franchise trading through intrinsic value thereby being instantly accretive to roc before any synergy value is released. but its large, complicated, and needs breaking apart. whether a large public co is the right entity to do that for me is doubtful. however someone like apollo teamed up with an insurer could easily do this. there are so many valuable franchises within aviva its amazing really.

[watfordhornet] 08/10/2023 09:30

Careful - what press are suggesting a 1897 crash?

[careful] 08/10/2023 09:19

Reading the press today.
There seems to be a growing consensus that a 1987 type of stock market crash is about to happen.

All caused by the bond markets, trillions worldwide of government debt at collapsed prices.

just read that Austrian government 2 years ago issued a 100 year bond at 0.85% interest rates that was 6 times oversubscribed.
They were 100 EU today they trade at 33 EU.

So many pension funds and banks have similar bonds on their balance sheet and the value of many of them has halved.
Often the are not 'marked to market' but on the balance sheet at the purchase price.

Something must give, things look worrying.

[skinny] 08/10/2023 09:01

I've been away for a few days, so apologies if these have been posted previously.



And from yesterday's Times :-

[rongetsrich] 08/10/2023 00:43

This stock has been manipulated, let's hope the FCA take an interest.Well actually, being careful in what I wish for, there's no such thing as bad advertising!!GLA

[rongetsrich] 08/10/2023 00:40

Yes, I'm going to keep adding, albeit at a slower rate. I'm going to counterbalance with cheap gilts. Not quite the same yield, but even Labour cannot default on national debt!

[pander45] 08/10/2023 00:27

I'll have a few more when not drops though. It's a good investment and I speak as a form and considerable holder.