Aviva Share Discussion Threads

[smurfy2001] 07/10/2023 11:52

MARKET REPORT: Takeover speculation puts rocket under Aviva

[smurfy2001] 07/10/2023 11:34

If I'd waited for II to re-invest my dividend it would have been Monday 2 days after the cash is received.

[oggyrocks] 07/10/2023 11:30

Thanks Richie - just checked and they reinvested my dividend at 411.5

Pity they didn’t do it a day earlier as they should have done.

Hopefully 411 will seem like a bargain next week

[smurfy2001] 07/10/2023 11:29

Aviva and its rivals in spotlight with investors scenting a deal

[spud] 07/10/2023 10:25

I don't think that some on the board appreciate just how undervalued the Company currently is. You can't estimate a t/o price unless you factor from fair value. 400p simply isn't fair value imo. Either way, I'm pretty positive that AB won't sell it on the cheap - I mean, why would she?spud

[coxsmn] 07/10/2023 10:08

6 is a low ball starting offer and would be rejected

Min 5 fair value plus 40% premium gives 7 per share.

For this the buyer gets a market leader in insurance wih a lot of future potential so not worth selling unless the offer is a no brainer.

[jonnybig] 07/10/2023 09:58

7 quid? Don't be ridiculous! 6 quid absolute tops for a takeover paying a premium on fair value round about 5.50. Some of you are getting carried away!

[spud] 07/10/2023 09:47

Anything below 700p would be undervaluing the Company imo and I wouldn't be supporting it (not that that would make a grain of difference).Either way, next week will either be very interesting or just another week.spud

[whatsup32] 07/10/2023 09:47

The Times today regurgitating rumors on business section.
My guess is if there is a serious bidder it will be reported in The Sunday Times tomorrow.

[fatherjack3] 07/10/2023 09:45

Totally agree with Richie saying that 600p is the true fair value for Aviva. Hope nobody comes in with a bid because I won't find a better income share to park a big chunk of my savings. Btw Richie, did you say you have gone all in on Aviva?. A ballsy choice.....not because it is risky but there's always a chance markets take a dive and you could pick them up for £3.

[coxsmn] 07/10/2023 09:42

If reports of three vultures circling are correct then chances are at least one will try and take a bite
These days there's so much speculation spread on social media as fact

[kennewil] 07/10/2023 07:42

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/oct/06/aviva-takeover-amanda-blancYou should really give attribution

[watfordhornet] 07/10/2023 07:30

RTWIt's not whether it is a closed period it is whether the chairman has inside information. Any approach/discussion with Allianz would be deemed insider information

[yf23_1] 07/10/2023 00:12

mountpleasant
Yes, it would be nice to filter those type of RNS out, but we're stuck with RNS and non-RNS. It would also be nice to not have all the verbage on holdings with a summary at the top, like A bought/sold XXX,000 new holding before % after %.

[richie1218] 06/10/2023 23:35

What I just posted above says that "600p would be a stretch and a half"
I disagree as the consensus is that 600p is fair value for AV as it stands.
imo you need to adjust your bid for a company at a certain % above fair value.
just because the intimated bid is 50% above current SP, does not mean 400p is fair value imo.

[roundtheworld] 06/10/2023 23:34

Fait accompli

[richie1218] 06/10/2023 23:19

Aviva no longer needs a rescue.

A bid for Aviva? For about the first 20 years of the existence of this insurance mashup – a three-way merger at the turn of the century, constructed around the old Norwich Union – its shareholders would have jumped at a chance to be put of their misery.

Few FTSE 100 managements disappointed their investors so often, or paid themselves such obviously absurd bonuses. Aviva was eclipsed at every turn by the crisis-free progress of its rivals Legal & General and Prudential.

Today, though, is a different matter. Amanda Blanc, the chief executive since mid-2020, has completed a cleanup operation that took Aviva out of eight international markets and slimmed the operation to the UK, Ireland and Canada – places where it is either big or expects to generate good returns on capital, or both. Almost £5bn was returned to shareholders from the disposals. Friday’s dividend promises – at least £915m this year and “low- to mid-single digit growth” thereafter – are also far more credible than in the past.

The soggy stock market rating probably owes much to distrust of life assurance and pensions in general

Why, then, is the group viewed as a takeover candidate? Mainly because the fiddly disposal job has been done and the shares now look cheap on conventional metrics. Even after the bump in the share price on Friday’s rumours, the dividend level implies a yield of 8% – which ain’t bad for a company that is number one in the UK in general insurance (cars and home, primarily) and is expected to keep generating excess cash.

The soggy stock market rating probably owes much to distrust of life assurance and pensions in general – the part where Aviva makes the other half of its profits. The underlying asset portfolios tend to contain large commercial property holdings, where UK valuations are currently weak. Alternative explanations include the unloved status of the UK economy, the UK stock market and financial services firms as a whole.

Yet a takeover bid for Aviva at a rumoured 600p would still be a stretch and a half. First, that would be a 50%-ish premium and any acquirer might do serious damage to its own valuation by paying so much. Second, the German financial services group Allianz, the most plausible of the suggested names because it is so big, is already number two in general insurance in the UK, which would very likely mean a long and unpredictable competition inquiry.

A takeover bid for Aviva at a rumoured 600p would still be a stretch and a half

Anything’s possible, of course, and the persistence of takeover chat around Aviva this year suggests somebody, somewhere is at least wondering whether the arithmetic can be made to work. The best advice to Blanc and co, though, is surely to not get drawn into distracting games of tentative “what if?” conservations.

Selling large and highly-regulated insurance companies – Aviva is worth £11bn currently – is complicated and time-consuming. If somebody wants to slap a fully-funded, highly-priced bid on the table, fine, you are obliged to talk. But Aviva these days is not the ailing entity of old. It does not need a rescuer.

[roundtheworld] 06/10/2023 23:18

Alphorn you say;

“The Chairman would not have been allowed to buy if an approach had been made by 25th September”

What do you mean by ‘an approach’ . It’s easy to throw out these easy phrases but it’s meaningless.

Shall I approach a few ftse CO’s tomorrow and say ‘I’m interested and please log this as an approach’

I can hear the Directors crying “ oh no we now can’t buy”

Sorry to make it sound ridiculous but my point is what triggers a closed period?

I think I know the answer it’s a serious offer or intent to buy that would materially affect the share price.

I would summarise that that threshold had not been met on 25 Sep but we might be there or getting close to now.

[mj19] 06/10/2023 23:09

This means a deal with Intact could raise competition concerns. Allianz is the second-largest player in the UK general insurance market, behind Aviva, and any combination would probably trigger a competition inquiry.Analysts at JP Morgan said the Aviva chief executive, Amanda Blanc, had transformed the insurer into a "highly investible company", but thought that any takeover would be complicated.

[spud] 06/10/2023 22:40

I've taken Stephen out of the loop. No more white noise. spud

[cjac39] 06/10/2023 22:04

amazing spud how many new faces emerge on news.

but btw i dont have any inside knowledge on this. my mkt friends tell me its a serious rumour but i dont know what that means above normal tittle.

as they say, many slip twixt cup and lip so we shall see. what we do know: aviva is at 0.9x adjusted own funds and makes roc 12%+ pa (this takes a lot of proprietary maths to prove) so is top of my risk adjusted book value measure and cheap. we shall see. enjoy.

[edmundshaw] 06/10/2023 21:59

The Guardian still has some good articles. And I say that as a Telegraph subscriber. Best to stay open-minded...

[lippy4] 06/10/2023 21:14

churchill was quite right as we have seen in recent decades..