Aviva Share Discussion Threads

[milliethedog] 17/8/2020 07:47

Could have written it myself CASS; spot on
My research shows most corrections/crashes in October.

Covid likes cold weather too. Thrives in it. Why we see it popping up in cold food factories & abbatoirs.

& is it beginning to mutate?

www.straitstimes.com/asia/se-asia/coronavirus-strain-thats-10-times-more-infectious-detected-in-malaysia

[wba1] 16/8/2020 22:33

To answer an earlier question; it is perfectly possible to have a very negative view of a management but still be bullish on the shares. Aviva is an excellent example of this. Management has been truly awful over many years (who knows about the new team) but on any rational valuation even the traditional incompetence displayed by Aviva managers should not prevent the price recovering further.

Those of us who avoid short term trading do not mind being honest in our views and anyway, as someone else said, this board will hardly influence the price.

[eurofox] 16/8/2020 22:20

Are we at a turning point for value over growth?

[1pencil] 16/8/2020 15:54

Market crashes tend to occur when everyone is bullish with their eye off the ball, newspaper articles prior to these events can be viewed online.

When financial authorities are aware of the possibility they take preventative measures, add liquidity, restrict short selling, negative rates and so on..very hard to swim against the tide.

Banks faced with the prospect of paying to leave money on deposit must surely be tempted by the likes of Aviva.

[milliethedog] 16/8/2020 15:05

Yes, we can all get it wrong....EI

Edit; on the virus front, i think once the cold weather starts we will find it very difficult to contain.

Also, a sizeable amount of the trillion dollar stimulas by the Fed is going straight to Big Tech, which is pushing the US indices ever higher

[essentialinvestor] 16/8/2020 14:53

If that's your view then best of luck.

I thought there would be some summer volatility and was wrong on that.

[milliethedog] 16/8/2020 14:49

True EI....
But only from doing our own research (weekends for me) can we come to some conclusions. One doesn't want to be a Wile-e Coyote!
A lemming going over the cliff with all the rest..

Reading market comments from Buffett, Soros, & others can only help with our investments/trades & timing thereof. Agree with them, or disagree, their opinion for me is usefull. From my own research there seems to be more articles leaning towards caution now.
With regard to comments of Buffett 'talking the market down' for a hidden agenda; i see Berkshire Hathaway portfolio is currently over 36% in one company. Apple.
So why would he talk Big Tech down?

I stick (for now) by my conclusion that a correction is due.
October is my guess...

M

[essentialinvestor] 16/8/2020 14:23

If the UKX sells off, most UKX stocks get hit (particularly financials) that's rudimentary.

In terms of whether the market will correct, you might as well ask...
how long is a piece of string?.

[milliethedog] 16/8/2020 13:37

Interest rates raised from 10% to 12% to finally 15% in an attempt to prop up GDP
Crazy times, but one of our own making.
Did our European 'friends' help us out?
....guess

The seeds eventually leading to Brexit
M

[1robbob] 16/8/2020 13:27

Milliethedog
I remember Black Wednesday very well. I was working in 'the Market' then. I think MLR changed 3 timrs...over lunch!!!

[milliethedog] 16/8/2020 13:04

rob, agree on comments about short selling.
But can't agree with you that anything posted on an internet message board is going to have the slightest effect on a company share price, either up or down.

On the subject of short selling.
There is a very interesting programme on Radio 4 about Black Wednesday in 1992. When the UK was forced to leave the ERM due to currency speculators. Remember George Soros? Interest rates at 15%?
A great weekend'listen'.



M

[1robbob] 16/8/2020 12:33

I always wonder why people who are bearish on a stock bother to post on a BB
Surely if they are bearish, they should simply just sell the shares?

If however the are running a short position, which personally I think should be illegal, they would be posting in order profit from frightening others into selling.

[wba1] 15/8/2020 22:46

wskill;

I am hardly a fan of Aviva management as I think I have made clear on many occasions. But my previous post was to point out the silliness of putting Admiral up as a comparator (even just for the general insurance business). It is comparing apples and pears.

[1pencil] 15/8/2020 15:31

Round-up of some dividend payers, L & G highlighted along with BP proposed transformation.

[imagining] 15/8/2020 13:01

she claims she's "Not a business as usual person" and promised to change things at "pace". The jury is still out!!

[p0pper] 15/8/2020 11:03

Hopefully this relatively unknown will shine.

[wskill] 15/8/2020 10:39

wba1 we would all dearly love Aviva find a model which works unfortunately the best we have is a statement from the new CEO that it is imperative the company unlocks shareholder value no timelines when this could ever happen,and I am sure the next CEO after her will be saying something similar .Poor management is all we seem to attract at Aviva .

[wba1] 14/8/2020 20:07

Just caught up after few days off.

I am amused by the comments about Admiral v Aviva. Admiral are not an insurer in any real sense, they are more like a broker. They write retail business and then reinsure the vast majority of the risk to Munich Re and have a large profit share agreement which returns money to them if that business turns out to be profitable. Their margin comes from sales of add-ons. In essence they have a business model which greatly limits their downside whilst providing them with substantial opportunity based on non-insurance elements of the business.

This is not a criticism of Admiral. Aviva could emulate the model (for retail insurance at least) if they could find a suitable partner. But do not mistake it for insurance and I cannot see a company with aspirations (however misplaced) to be a major player in the wider market going in this direction. The issue for Aviva is finding a model which works for their strategy. Admiral is not that model.

[cyberian] 14/8/2020 17:09

Having added today at around the 285p mark I feel a little relieved as to market sentiment running against the tide of some positive news ahead....a good late recovery today. Always difficult to read the market in certain sectors, but will now hold whatever prevails over next few weeks. I will keep an eye out for the unexpected as always, but happy to keep some cash back for any other candidates looking undervalued like AV. Best wishes as always.

[spud] 14/8/2020 13:00

Remind me how many deaths New Zealand has had from this flu...?spud

[1pencil] 14/8/2020 12:16

As the pandemic persists, New Zealand considers negative interest rates

[eurofox] 14/8/2020 11:36

The problem with selling and buying back is that it only takes a favourable announcement to be on the wrong side of the trade. So I'm holding tight to what I buy at the moment.