Aviva Share Discussion Threads

[hhhold2] 07/8/2020 12:17

Looking like I might get another chance at these. Coming back down nicely
To where the price might soon be right!

Well done mm, s

[1robbob] 07/8/2020 10:58

2wild please be acurate when you make statements

Nowhere in yesterdays announcement did it say that the 2nd 2019 Interim Dividend was in lieu of a Final dividend, nor did they say that there would be no 2020 interim dividend

WHAT THEY DID SAY WAS

...'We will update shareholders on all dividend matters, including the 2019 final dividend in the fourth quarter.'

[whatsup32] 07/8/2020 10:14

New CEO said all the right things , dividend restored , possible special div. Work hard for shareholder value.
I like her much more then Tulloch. Glad he has gone.
Share price will probably be market and news driven from now.
I don't see anything negative here other then it's going to be a boring company until they sell of parts.
Boring is not necessarily bad thing

[2wild] 07/8/2020 10:13

So they are paying a second 2019 interim dividend of 6p in lieu of a final which would have require shareholder approval. Passed on a 2020 interim, which makes sense with COR crashing to 99.8% and debt increasing.

Compare this to Direct Line which have increased 2020 interim dividend by 2.8% to 7.4p and reinstated the 2019 final in full at 14.4p. As an income seeker I have sold AV. and added to DLG at 330.1p, bit of a no-brainer really.

[eurofox] 07/8/2020 10:04

Dodge - it needed to reset just a bit, because with a series of consecutive rises it had become too overbought - resume buying when the rsi drops back

[whatsup32] 07/8/2020 10:03

New chief promised urgent shake up and retreat from continental Europe and far East
Focus on value for shareholders
Continue div. To lower value
Ruled out complete break of co.
Selling businesses could raise £4billion
Erica Arnold chief operating officer left company
" from this moment we must deliver" quote from AB

[igoe104] 07/8/2020 10:03

Aviva plc 2020 interim results video featuring Amanda Blanc.

[whatsup32] 07/8/2020 09:58

If you got a local shop .Yes .

[dodge meister] 07/8/2020 09:57

Dont understand why this is down today, great set of results

[eurofox] 07/8/2020 09:48

Is it worth buying the paper for - don't have a subscription

[whatsup32] 07/8/2020 09:36

Excellent article in The Times today on Aviva .
New CEO is saying all the right things
Like concentrating on shareholder value , selling assets , reducing debt,costs . Even mentioned paying special dividend ( after selling assets?)

[cjac39] 06/8/2020 19:27

Whatsup welcome to the world of actuarial science. Let’s make some guesses (albeit with some good technical statistics and science) but then let’s not trust those guesses by layering on reserve after reserve. Then let’s add a regulator who believes companies run imprudently at all times and add some more reserves then a 1 in 200 year stress test then let’s add a buffer on that and then a buffer to make sure we don’t ever have to revise our buffer.

I kid you not.

On top of that let’s add a share price and executives who have some incentives correlated to that and in down markets they over reserve and in up markets they reserve release.

All part of the game.

The good news today if you have a sub 300 entry price in AV is we are at the bottom of that cycle across all aspects

[whatsup32] 06/8/2020 19:12

cjac39 . If the norm is to hide coins in the back of the sofa. Presuming previous CEO did same and one before only leads me to believe Aviva has the biggest sofa in FT100 .

CEO’s seem to be stashing coins away but no one is finding any when it comes to paying of debts.

[cjac39] 06/8/2020 18:49

One thing that does leap off the page to me is the value of av to embedded value compared to l&g or others. Av is proper cheap on many levels

[cjac39] 06/8/2020 18:47

Thanks wba I’ll take a proper read over weekend. From cash perspective they’ve left almost all surpluses in op entities. The mortality release was very modest and they raised property and credit provisions. But without a closer read I’m not sure if this was in line with expected or of the kitchen sink variety. As you say, new ceo always suggests hiding some coins in the back of the sofa

[whatsup32] 06/8/2020 18:46

1pencil. Obliged

[whatsup32] 06/8/2020 18:16

What’s the x div date , 6p?

[whatsup32] 06/8/2020 18:12

WBA
Thank you

[essentialinvestor] 06/8/2020 17:51

That is not a quarterly dividend.

[hhhold2] 06/8/2020 17:12

Black armband day.

Never mind. Guess I'll just have to settle with what shares I have now in aviva. Too good a share to miss this opportunity. Guess I'll just tuck these away for a few years.

Onwards and upwards.

[eurofox] 06/8/2020 16:53

There may also be quite a lot of front-running orders going on.

[togglebrush] 06/8/2020 16:46

High Frequency Trading appears to be qoing on with over 10,000 trades so far today at rates of over 100 per minute. Normally these Flash Guys fight amongst themselves but they are not particular. Most trades are Direct access and most of these are Algo driven.
'
It is all transparent trading just very fast. I believe regulators are trying to keep down to under 3 trades per second. It is possible to trade every 10 mill secs.
'
Its rather like going over the top in the Western Front with a rifle against machine guns. You can do it. You may even be lucky ???
'
These High Frequency Trading days are not seen that often and may only last one day. Normally they don't hold a position overnight. But the pattern can be seen in some relatively small companies if conditions fit their model.

[wba1] 06/8/2020 16:28

Had a slightly closer look at the general insurance numbers. I reckon she has squirrelled away at least £100m by strengthening prior year reserves and reserving more strongly than usual in 2020 accident year, especially in UK personal lines.

For those unfamiliar with such things a few words of explanation. Usual practice is to reserve claims at best estimate plus 5% (for contingency). The contingency is released when the claim is settled. This means that claims from prior years (usually personal injury for motor) will usually release money to profit on settlement. There are only two excuses/reasons for needing to strengthen prior year reserves. Firstly, that a key reserving assumption (such as the discount rate) has changed. That has not happened in 2020. Secondly, that the existing reserves were set too low. The history of Aviva reserve patterns says this is not the case. The third reason is that, at the time of results, CEOs can choose how much to release or strengthen reserves as a means of smoothing/manipulating profits declared. This is the usual reason for unexpected patterns and that is what Blanc has done this time. She has stuffed profit up her sleeve to use for other purposes (or to release later if things get worse). And I reckon she has also done it by stuffing the H1 2020 claims as well (probably by increasing IBNR - the allowance for claims incurred but yet to be reported).

If she has done this in general insurance it would not surprise me at all if she has used opportunities in life and investment to do something similar. Perhaps cjac has a view on this?

[action] 06/8/2020 16:17

Thanks. Wanted to know who is buying retail investor or funds.