Aviva Share Discussion Threads

[cjac39] 10/8/2020 10:59

thats outrageous. basing the share options on the worse trading day in a decade when today's price is so much higher is incredible.

I'm pretty amazed by share price reaction to last weeks results but things like this don't help.

[p0pper] 10/8/2020 10:34

Looking at todays RNS it's no wonder the divi was re-instated

[whatsup32] 10/8/2020 09:37

Admiral results this Wednesday. Decision on their cancelled 20.7p will be made .
If they pay , then it's more then likely so will Av.

On my long list of shares I follow. Only Aviva in red .

Aviva shareholders seem never to get a break

[wba1] 09/8/2020 22:35

cyberian;

if AB delivers she can have whatever reasons she wants for Erica Arnold's departure. My concern is simply that my Zurich contacts tell me that Arnold was more highly rated than Blanc in their time at Zurich. Maybe Zurich sour grapes. Maybe Arnold chose to leave. But unexplained senior departures of this sort cast shadows.

[spud] 09/8/2020 14:50

I guess if an investor has zero confidence in the future of AV then yes, having bought higher up (as I and many others have) it's a poor investment. However, having timed my last top up purchase below 230p rightly or wrongly, I think this is going to trend higher & still yield a stonking return. spud

[essentialinvestor] 09/8/2020 14:15

Trev, I can't predict the future.

It's possible to make money out of the vast majority of stocks if you nail
the timing on buying and selling. My example was a buy and hold one over the past 10 years.

Lloyds has lost 90% of its value over 20 years, however even with that stock
it was possible to make money if you bought and sold at particular times.

[123trev] 09/8/2020 14:07

I’m not saying that your wrong EInvestor but it’s still a good return here and you don’t have a crystal ball back then or now many years from now the opposite scenario could well happen with the two shares.

[123trev] 09/8/2020 14:01

Let’s say you bought Aviva at say £2.50 or even £3 and took the dividends reinvested and managed to sell at nearly the high a few years ago little skill involved and a great return compared to elsewhere.

[1robbob] 09/8/2020 13:53

A lower yield would indicate that shareholders are confident in the Company's management and the business prospects and are prepared to leave a substantial
proportion of the profits to be retained in the business in the belief that better returns will be made

A higher yield indicates that either the Company's profits are highly cyclical or that
there is little or no confidence in the management or the business prospects so the shareholders do not want to leave any (!!) of the profits within the business as they
do not believe decent returns will be made

Our delema at AV is: is the business ex any growth?, which looking at the other insurance companies it is not....or have we had a serious mis-management issue?

If AB comes good , shareholders will be increasingly comfortable in allowing Management to retain more of the profits and consequently the dividend will be paid and will grow consistantly

[essentialinvestor] 09/8/2020 12:33

Spud, that's one way of looking at it, however say you've
held Unilever for the last 10 years at a yield of 3.5%.

Let's assume you you want a yield of 5%, so to achieve that
decide to sell 1.5% of your Unilever holding each year to
supplement the dividend, which investor would be in a better
position 10 years later?.. the Unilever investor hands down would be in the better position.

It does not need to be Unilever, I've picked that as the largest current UKX stock,
you could substitute RB. DGE etc for ULVR.


PRU has consistently sold on a lower yield than Aviva, however look at the extraordinary difference
in returns between the two companies. Holding PRU and selling small amounts each year rather than
holding Aviva over the last 10 years and it's the same result. The PRU holder would be in the much better
position over that timeframe.

Going for the highest yielding shares in the UKX has proven a generally diasterous strategy over 10 years plus.

[whatsup32] 09/8/2020 12:21

Regrettably not in the money at all. Bought in I think two years ago now showing 35% down . So even with dividends still down 25%. Not crying , just sharing.

I’m disappointed with my purchase as it was supposed to be a defensive/boring share.

Turned out to be anything but.

[spud] 09/8/2020 11:54

Yes but, you need to factor in the dividend payments whatsup. If you'd held for 11 years, the stock probably owes you nowt! spud

[whatsup32] 09/8/2020 11:11

Thanks for above eurofox . AB is saying right things and in my view moving right direction. Once some assets are sold (continental Europe and Asia)company becomes more palatable for full takeover.

This has been my worst(major)holding ever

[eurofox] 09/8/2020 10:35

It strikes me that lower ongoing dividend yields in the short term could actually be good for the share price, because if less of an unsustainable dividend is being "frittered away" on shareholders with unrealistic expectations, the likelihood of being able to rotate some of the debt into lower interest debt increases, making for better long term profitability and hence higher share prices without then further sacrificing the already re-based dividend yield. Paradoxical or what?

[eurofox] 09/8/2020 09:49

Paul Hill
Paul Hill
Founder PMH Capital Ltd
3d · Edited

#AV.

Aviva beats estimates across the patch.

Although “one swallow does not a summer make”, I am encouraged by today’s H1’20 results, which saw this life/general insurer exceed expectations on nearly all fronts.

Here H1 operating profits came in at £1,225m, +11% vs consensus, whilst the June Solvency II ratio landed at 194% vs 189% (182% Q1).

Better still, the new CEO (Amanda Blanc) appears to have grabbed the bull by the horns, & is not only slashing costs (on track to deliver £150m pa of savings in 2020), but also focusing the group solely on its UK, Ireland & Canadian franchises.

In turn, running the international businesses (France, Poland, Italy & Asia) for value. Which I suspect could ultimately translate into unlocking c. £6.5bn of disposal proceeds, worth 165p/share.

Better still, the Net Book Value surprisingly climbed from 434p in Dec to 473p/share June. Meaning that with hopefully the worst of #Covid19 now behind us, the stock can appreciate towards my fair value of >400p.

Besides, even if this takes a little bit of time, the dividend has just been reinstated - with a 6p interim planned, alongside a review of the FY20 payout in Q4. #Covid related provisions remained in line with previous guidance, coming in at £165m vs £160m before.

[wskill] 09/8/2020 09:15

I would not be happy if AV. started on a acquisition spree they have a record of disastrous buys and will waste what little shareholder value is left in the company .

Not sure what the loss was on FP after the sale of what was left of Friends Provident for a few hundred million after paying billions for it.

[salver2] 09/8/2020 09:10

Do you think dividends will be quarterly or will there be two payments totalling around the 24 pence mark or do you think they want to rebase it around the20 p total mark

[123trev] 09/8/2020 08:44

Having got back in at under £2.40 quarterly dividends of 6p is fine by me and I can only see this rising given the limited places for money to be safely parked and earn a decent return barring a catastrophe that is. Covid what ever your views has certainly changed the landscape but it’s just the start I fear.Im a keen follower of El-Erian who’s thoughts have both saved and made me money and his views about the future impacts of such things as global warming,Ai and technology giving rise to further financial shocks to markets in the future I totally agree with. I know some will say that this has always been the case but the speed of change to come might be impossible to keep up with.

[whatsup32] 08/8/2020 17:55

Tong in cheek...

[ianood] 08/8/2020 17:31

Wrong company, we are Aviva

[whatsup32] 08/8/2020 17:29

Aveva in talks to buy Soft bank.....

[anth21] 08/8/2020 16:50

The idea of Aviva not paying the balance on the 2019 final dividend does not sit comfortably with me.

They declared 21.4pence and would have paid it, but for FCA intervention. Rivals have either paid their withheld dividends or announced the intention to catch up.

Most businesses will be impacted by Covid-19, and Aviva will still be very profitable.

If they are going to rebase the dividend they can do so for future dividends, but pay what they originally committed to.

[scrwal] 08/8/2020 15:12

The interims weren't too shabby but there is actually no direct reference to any form of a 2020 dividend. All we get is a review of all dividend matters including the 2019 final in the 4th quarter. DLG and LGEN have managed to maintain their normal dividends but Aviva seem intent on missing part of the 2019 final and all of the 2020 dividend with a probable rebasing of the 2021.

[1robbob] 08/8/2020 13:07

You talk a lot of sense cyberian
I agree quarterly dividend of 6p each as a start point of the new dividend policy.
Re the 2019 Funal, we already have a 2nd interim of 6P, I would suggest a 6p 2019 Final Dividend opayable in December. This followed by a 2021 1st Interim of 6p in March...then we are off on the new divi format March/June/Sept and Dec.