Aviva Share Discussion Threads

[crossing_the_rubicon] 08/3/2020 14:07

@Spud

Am sitting tight myself. Holding. But not buying on the dip yet..unless it's Shell.
Sorely tempted.

[alphorn] 08/3/2020 14:06

Hubei province will be an indicator if there is any widespread re-infection.

[crossing_the_rubicon] 08/3/2020 14:06

"W1NDJAMMER8 Mar '20 - 12:45 - 1046 of 1057
in 2015/ 2016 SK had 15,495 deaths from influenza" <---------------1 WHOLE YEAR

"c19 = 50 and cases are reducing..." <-----------------------8-9 weeks only.

How about we compare apples to apples and wait for a full year of Covid 19 deaths and then compare???

Farcical to compare a year's worth of influenza deaths to 8 - 9 weeks of Covid 19.

Laughable in fact.

[essentialinvestor] 08/3/2020 13:55

Can accept the Hubei province figures are dramatically falling - although that may be
overstated in official numbers?.

What's looks surprising low are the China mainland figures. Would tend to question
those.

[creme de menthe] 08/3/2020 13:48

Thanks Popper, I may have been a bit rash in saying that.
C

[essentialinvestor] 08/3/2020 13:42

I don't fit into those categories, have cash and slowly adding to positions
but would like the market lower.

A !ot depends on whether you think this is a new protracted bear market.

I've long since given up trying to buy or sell at optimal prices, so do so in stages now,
which applies to selling as well as buying.

[spud] 08/3/2020 13:39

Basically three camps here:1. Sitting tight (neither buying or selling). 2. Have sold (probably within the past week) and are willing the Market down through end of days scenarios. 3. Holding (willingly the Market up) & buying more on the dips. Not difficult to tell from posters here as to which camp they belong. spud (in the third camp!)

[leedslad001] 08/3/2020 13:34

The retail investor will sell or already have and the big institutional investors rub there hands and fill there boots at bargain prices. Remember they have to invest in the stock market

[w1ndjammer] 08/3/2020 13:33

FTSE only down 108 pips at the moment, see what happens over night in Asia

with conditions stabilising over there, who knows.


WJ.

[p0pper] 08/3/2020 13:32

Creme de Menthe8 Mar '20 - 09:46 - 1026 of 1049
0 0 0
Tadawul index (Saudi) is down 7.5% today so I'm expecting a 5% drop on the ftse on monday at least...

Creme, I can imagine a lot of that is to do with Saudi Aramco and the oil situation, says me hoping it is anyway.

[essentialinvestor] 08/3/2020 13:07

Intend to add selectively to positions tomorrow, dependent on prices available.

[w1ndjammer] 08/3/2020 12:54

Ok you have convinced me, i am selling the lot in the morning

and going off sailing for 6 months...

WJ.

[zho] 08/3/2020 12:46

W1NDJAMMER

>>mortality rate for SK is 0.69% which is below seasonal flue>>

I posted this higher up:

When I had a look at the WHO data for flu, they reckoned that on average 10% of the Amerian population get 'flu every year, 36,000 of whom die. That's a mortality rate of 0.11%.

I didn't bookmark that page but it tallies with www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html which says "CDC estimates that influenza has resulted in between 9 million – 45 million illnesses, between 140,000 – 810,000 hospitalizations and between 12,000 – 61,000 deaths annually since 2010."

On the face of it - and none of these data can be certain yet - the coronavirus is more contagious than flu (and also more contagious than SARS, where sufferers are only contagious when they have symptoms), and with a mortality rate of at least an order magnitude greater than flu.

[w1ndjammer] 08/3/2020 12:45

in 2015/ 2016 SK had 15,495 deaths from influenza

c19 = 50 and cases are reducing...


WJ.

[eeza] 08/3/2020 12:38

Yeah, but fenners was looking on the bright side !

[essentialinvestor] 08/3/2020 12:37

Sorry but that's not correct.
Seasonal flu can be below 0.1% mortality, usual mortality is 0.1-0.2 %(on a bad year).

[w1ndjammer] 08/3/2020 12:34

fenners

against your figures the mortality rate for SK is 0.69% which is below seasonal flue

WJ.

[fenners66] 08/3/2020 12:24

"lung cancer mortality rate in UK is 21%."

Over what 50 years ?

So you would rather be sat on a C19 impounded cruise ship for 2 weeks than smoke for 2 weeks ?

[fenners66] 08/3/2020 12:22

This discussion has is not about spooking a share price - its about whether C19 will have a serious economic effect.

It already has.

Sure when we get a vaccine that can be mass produced and works economic activity will get back to normal and if you assume that is going to happen in 12-18m and you buy shares for the long term ok.

However if we do not take serious action to delay this virus , we will get a more lasting economic impact than your run of the mill world recession. Then what ?

Throw politics and religion into the mix and economic recovery could take a lot longer.

[creme de menthe] 08/3/2020 12:22

This whole thing about mortality rates must be put into perspective.
Presumably if people are dying from Corona then death rates from Cancers etc will FALL.
Also if people are washing hands more then deaths from e.coli and other person to person transmissions will also FALL.
The Corona has already mutated into 2 types and I think further human transmissions will also weaken the virus over coming months.
Will there actually be a spike in overall mortality rates or will this Corona make little difference overall?
I don't notice rioting outside shops selling tobacco yet lung cancer mortality rate in UK is 21%.

Get a grip people....

[fenners66] 08/3/2020 12:17

8 Mar '20 - 11:54 - 1035 of 1036

"South Korea has tested most 140,000 people and they have the best test kit

6000 have tested positive

But mortality rate is only 0.6%"





South Korea has 7313 cases
50 deaths
So you think that is a mortality rate of 0.6%


BUT
Only 130 have recovered
so you have 50 deaths and 130 recoveries

There are still 7133 of those cases ongoing which can go either way

Look at the OUTCOMES data not the WIP

[cjac39] 08/3/2020 12:16

leedslad exactly. turn the screens off for even 6 months and all will be restored. this feels to me like a once in a decade opportunity to buy ftse100 and s&p500 stocks at bargain prices. 9% yield for this vs gilts hovering around 0.3% is crazy

[dr biotech] 08/3/2020 12:16

But with S korea the figures could well be skewed to the low side. As they have have tested so widely and picked up so many, there will be a large proportion that are infected where the outcome is unknown.

The diamond princess 600- cases which are probably mostly over the worst in an older population...mortality about 1%. Key thing is not to overwhelm the NHS

[leedslad001] 08/3/2020 12:04

Shorters will always try and panic people to sell. It's the end of the world. Let's see what's the share price next year at this time is. Happy to keep buying for the future as can afford to invest and wait. Not a trader so not bothered