Aviva Share Discussion Threads

[bennodean] 01/3/2020 09:37

Well headline on BBC last night was Boris expecting a baby.

Either means Corona has passed or not even got going !

[123trev] 01/3/2020 09:19

Ps, but GS aren’t called the vampire squid for nothing and history says when they say something do the opposite but this time could be different,lol.

[whatsup32] 01/3/2020 09:08

Futures USA are positive

[smurfy2001] 01/3/2020 01:32

WALL ST FUTURES down 700 points
FTSE FUTURES down 170pts



Weekend Wall Street
24984.4
25012.4
-699.5
Weekend Hong Kong HS50
25959.9
26019.9
-496.7
Weekend Germany 30
11704.7
11726.7
-316.8
Weekend FTSE 100
6522.2
6538.2
-172.3

[edmundshaw] 29/2/2020 23:01

I have read so many conflicting stories about COV-19 - death rates, underlying death rates, hidden infections...

It is impossible to be accurate without access to real data. Which I do not have. And the market does not have. But one thing is sure - the market is not fond of uncertainty...

BTW it is unlikely there are large numbers of mild cases of COV - at least in 1st world countries who are alert to the symptoms (hello USA?) - or serious cases would have popped up all over the place.

[eeza] 29/2/2020 16:59

Unless your head is well under.

[optastic] 29/2/2020 16:55

Loads of fake news and "panic" press.

I reckon the numbers of people who have had Cov are far greater. Lots will have had it mild and not even realized

Investors, have no reason to panic, even if well under water now

[dr biotech] 29/2/2020 16:26

Where do you get your figures from smarty? Ftse futures at IG closed +120. 6700
Doubt that will hold though

Personally I think the genie is out of the bottle and the virus will become a pandemic, if it is not already. There is still a lot more uncertainty to be priced in. I bought a few last week that I already regret. Wouldn’t surprise me to see the ftse in bear territory- would be interesting to see what happens in the US if a large amount of uninsured People catch it - could put Saunders into the White House.

[eurofox] 29/2/2020 15:36

futures open at 10pm sunday

[mountpleasant] 29/2/2020 15:19

I think you will find, FTSE does not open until Monday, so on Sunday its not to move at all.

[smurfy2001] 29/2/2020 14:39

FTSE futures down yet again be interesting to see where it goes on Sunday.

Personally l see further weakness unless we see a definite statement that the virus is under control and levelling off.

We're currently at 85K confirmed cases and nearly 3K deaths.

[imagining] 29/2/2020 14:26

Nobody can predict if or when the bottom is reached any more than it can be predicted when rationality returns and the share price recovers.It is a pure gamble,in these situations, to bet(one way or the other) on the share price movement. However, for serious long-term investors (as opposed to gamblers/traders),this would be a great entry point for Aviva regardless of any near-term volatility IMO.

[tornado12] 29/2/2020 13:06

Time will tell how much more this will drop but the bottom is not reached that’s for sure. A real outbreak in US/UK will also guarantee that. However, AV solid long term investment with good mix of revenue.

[techno20] 29/2/2020 11:55

Took the decision to top up on Friday. Time will tell on whether it’s too early or not, but long term this looks decent value.

Been working through the impact of the various challenges being faced at the moment. Be interested in others views. Floods likely to be pushing up household loss ratio, but whilst the TV pictures look dire, in reality the number of properties flooded so far isn’t too bad. So limited impact.

As for Corona, clearly there’s an impact on investment returns and new business flows. New business on protection likely to slow, but suspect this will be limited. Protection sales often rise when people feel more vulnerable. GI sales unlikely to be impacted. Don’t think Aviva have a big travel book, but could be wrong.

But overall people will still keep paying into their pensions and for their insurance premiums.

Looking at the bleakest scenarios we could see a rise in the Morbidity rate (note Dignity did well last week), but most deaths will be older, so unlikely to impact much.

I’m sure the above is a very simplistic view on the situation, but overall Aviva feels more resilient than many other businesses. What am I missing?

[garycook] 29/2/2020 11:37

Your a dreamer.No way will AV,be £3.

[tornado12] 29/2/2020 11:26

Very interested in topping up my aviva holding but waiting for sub 300 to get a fantastic future divi return for yrs to come. However I do believe the recovery in market will take us well into 2021. First unexplained signs of virus in US have just come out so any outbreak there means at least another -10% .

[creditcrunchies] 28/2/2020 19:58

I got up to 55% cash on my pension a couple of weeks ago and just twiddled my thumbs started buying stock today and actually bought some of these at fire sale price with the final divi coming up soon it's a no brainer. This leg down is -16% from the recent high on the FTSE getting close to bounce zone

[uppompeii] 28/2/2020 18:42

I've a few friends still in the industry working across different fund houses, some large, other boutique, they have all said there was a move of up to 40% to cash around two weeks ago. If it was replicated across the industry the precipitous fall is possibly overdone, and if not there is a wall of cash waiting at some point in the future.

[eeza] 28/2/2020 17:39

Can't see a 500 point drop on FTSE = 50 point drop here.

[tornado12] 28/2/2020 17:36

I think FTSE down to 6000 next week so here sub 300 would be great price, but only after understanding their comments for 2020 outlook ... I too would like to average down from 383p .... build a reasonable position for good divi return. Obviously there is risk of cut for any business if the slow down is at 2008 levels

[eeza] 28/2/2020 17:21

FTSE futures blue now.

Full of bravery now the Market has closed.

[smurfy2001] 28/2/2020 16:20

Equity markets have dropped over 10% this week – one of the worst weeks on record.