Aviva Share Discussion Threads

[w1ndjammer] 08/3/2020 11:54

This might help you guys out...

South Korea has tested most 140,000 people and they have the best test kit

6000 have tested positive

But mortality rate is only 0.6%

this guy is up to speed and will explain how other tests are flawed...




WJ.

[cjac39] 08/3/2020 11:46

Yes but why is that bad for a LIFE INSURANCE company that profits from annuitant mortality. I get a bit of sideways on aviva with travel insurance but given its predominance in life it makes zero sense.

[leedslad001] 08/3/2020 11:26

Do not agree

[enormouswillie] 08/3/2020 11:23

This is NOT just any virus though, that’s the problem - this is catastrophic and the economic effects and consequences will be felt for a very long time

[leedslad001] 08/3/2020 10:24

Lots of money to be made if you have the cash and balls to buy. Investors can't go far wrong if you are looking at holding long term. Blown up out of all proportion just let it run its course like any virus

[cjac39] 08/3/2020 10:13

can someone provide a basic explanation aside from it being a listed share why a life insurance company that benefits from mortality is trading with such high beta? next few months no doubt painful but buying phnx, landg, hvpe, berkshire, 3i, at these prices will prove v profitable

[crossing_the_rubicon] 08/3/2020 10:12

"EssentialInvestor7 Mar '20 - 23:25 - 1025 of 1027
Latest WHO mortality estimate is 3.4% (03 March)"

Which they swiftly back tracked on.


"That's the reported number, the actual death rate is likely significantly lower
as reported cases are disproportionately skewed towards serious cases"

The actual death rate is likely to be significantly higher as reported cases are being massaged. Anyone believe the Chinese figures??? Or the Iranian figures for that matter?


"Early estimates are it's twice as transmissible as seasonal flu.
So even if it was just twice as deadly, that alone would case a problem"

What is the R0 of flu?
R0 of this coronavirus is 4 to 7?

[crossing_the_rubicon] 08/3/2020 10:10

"fenners667 Mar '20 - 21:45 - 1023 of 1026
Flu 0.11 % deaths
Outcomes data for Covid 19 6.0% death
That is 54x more deadly
It takes weeks to conclude and leaves many seriously ill on the way"

Bingo!
This is why it is far worse than FLU


"If / or when it spreads like flu the health service would be swamped and outcomes would be worse"

Yep. If health services are swamped such that those needing hospitalisation cant get it,no beds, no Oxygen etc etc death rate rises to 18%

18%.



"The whole point of taking it very seriously at the moment is hoping to put that off until summer so the warm weather can help the fight"

And if you stagger and delay, it gives the NHS a chance to treatment all those cases requiring hospitalisation...of which it is 1 in 5 or so I gather.

Stretch them over months, possible.
Get them over days, it's game over.

[creme de menthe] 08/3/2020 09:46

Tadawul index (Saudi) is down 7.5% today so I'm expecting a 5% drop on the ftse on monday at least...

[essentialinvestor] 07/3/2020 23:25

Latest WHO mortality estimate is 3.4% (03 March).

That's the reported number, the actual death rate is likely significantly lower
as reported cases are disproportionately skewed towards serious cases.

Early estimates are it's twice as transmissible as seasonal flu.
So even if it was just twice as deadly, that alone would case a problem.

[gaffer73] 07/3/2020 23:10

Why is it a major financial district?

[fenners66] 07/3/2020 21:45

Flu 0.11 % deaths

Outcomes data for Covid 19 6.0% death

That is 54x more deadly

It takes weeks to conclude and leaves many seriously ill on the way.

If / or when it spreads like flu the health service would be swamped and outcomes would be worse.

The whole point of taking it very seriously at the moment is hoping to put that off until summer so the warm weather can help the fight.

[essentialinvestor] 07/3/2020 21:31

If reports are correct and Italy is to quarantine the whole of Lombardy region (over 10 million people) markets may be ugly come Monday.

[spud] 07/3/2020 16:49

Absolutely!spud

[zho] 07/3/2020 16:33

Hi Spud,

I hope you're right, but if it's correct that the CV is more contagious than flu, and much more deadly, then it may pay to be cautious, about both personal health and investments.

[spud] 07/3/2020 16:30

Yes maybe but in the absence of any meaningful news, the media has spun this at 10million rpm. And we all know why : news spun to an end of the world scenario sells papers & make loadsa money. I'm sorry but this just ain't as bad as the media would like you to believe imo. spud

[zho] 07/3/2020 16:13

spud

re your post 1011

When I had a look at the WHO data for flu, they reckoned that on average 10% of the Amerian population get 'flu every year, 36,000 of whom die. That's a mortality rate of 0.11%.

I didn't bookmark that page but it tallies with www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html which says "CDC estimates that influenza has resulted in between 9 million – 45 million illnesses, between 140,000 – 810,000 hospitalizations and between 12,000 – 61,000 deaths annually since 2010."

On the face of it - and none of these data can be certain yet - the coronavirus is more contagious than flu (and also more contagious than SARS, where sufferers are only contagious when they have symptoms), and with a mortality rate of at least an order magnitude greater than flu.

So I would respectfully suggest that this is something to worry about.

[cjac39] 06/3/2020 20:29

for me this price action is mad...im invested in all the life insurers and adding all the way down cause especially aviva and phnx they have massive concentrations of c/d socioeconomic annuitants that are likely to (sadly) to cop this heavy cold thing

[crossing_the_rubicon] 06/3/2020 20:25

"mountpleasant6 Mar '20 - 20:00 - 25228 of 25228
I was at my local Tesco at 7am today.. a woman in front of me had a full years supply of rice in her trolley. Not the own brand stuff either,, we are talking Tilda !"


She's behind the game.

Some were at that stage last year.

[uppompeii] 06/3/2020 20:18

I'd say no. In my 30 plus years of following it, it has always over reacted to the downside and under recovered in the good years. My only consolation has been that I have traded it successfully and what I have left now are free many times over.So, I would only say, if you are prepared to forego expectation of long term share price growth and are happy for a decent income, it wont disappoint.

[bergster56] 06/3/2020 20:01

Is this a decent defensive share given current market conditions? If so why?

[mountpleasant] 06/3/2020 20:00

I was at my local Tesco at 7am today.. a woman in front of me had a full years supply of rice in her trolley. Not the own brand stuff either,, we are talking Tilda !

Meanwhile, I am waiting to top up, if it gets silly - Closer to 300p

Watching the oil ETF closely.. EXH1

Reminds me of my favourite Italian eatery... carnaggios