Avation Share Discussion Threads

[bdbd11] 01/3/2024 16:12

I listened in to the investor call. There seems to be a significance difference and improvement in confidence compared to the meeting last time out. Back then share buy backs were dismissed out of hand. This time they were back on the table as a possibility along with even the word dividend being mentioned. Paying down of debt is still the priority. With aircraft values (used and new) moving forward, the interest rate environment set to improve (possibly with AVAP's own rating improving as was hinted at) and the full fleet due to be in service shorty, we are looking good imo. The deep discount to nav they say is more than their piers. All in all it's looking good and I topped up during the meeting, lucky enough to get in under 1.06.

[argylerich] 01/3/2024 14:25

The presentation seems to have been well received too, will be catching up with that later.

[madmix] 01/3/2024 14:07

I suspect some investors (ie. those selling this morning) were unaware of the broker forecasts here.

WH Ireland's November '23 note forecast losses in 2024 and 2025 on both PBT and NAV (mainly due to lease transition costs - which primarily relate to maintenance costs prior to transition).

Today's results are very much inline with that.

To summarise, they say "While headline numbers may appear to be a step backwards today, we see real progress being made on an underlying basis in terms of growing lease revenue (underpinned by the delivery of two new ATR 72-600s in 2024 and 28 72-600 purchase rights) and deleveraging the balance sheet."

[argylerich] 01/3/2024 13:44

Was surprised to see the market reaction this morning so added 3k @105.7.
AVAP seem to be tidying their desk nicely at the moment.
With delays forcast to the ATRs surely that should make the options more valuable too?

[my retirement fund] 01/3/2024 11:15

I'm surprised to see such losses and NAV declines in such a climate. Surely, such seemingly bad luck?

[harrogate] 16/2/2024 14:45

Not a set date but usually by now

[casholaa] 16/2/2024 14:43

Sifting through previous rns's there doesn't appear a set date for TU's or Interims

[harrogate] 16/2/2024 14:18

Strange that they haven't issued a trading update this year. They usually do in Jan or early Feb.

[vikb] 16/12/2023 12:40

Can anyone think of reasons why:

- Nobody was found to buy Oceanwood's stake for more than 79p?

- The company itself was not willing to outbid (say, 80p) to take Oceanwood's stake? If 79p truly was a good value buy then Jeff would personally benefit a lot from the company buying Oceanwood's stake itself.

[catsick] 24/11/2023 13:59

Why would jeff sell at a discount to nav, just as easy to sell off all the assets which could probably be done over 24 months close to nav, not worth entertaining a bid under 200

[sphere25] 23/11/2023 14:29

So no price mentioned on the takeover proposal, just that it was in the summer. The price was loitering around that 122p mark in June before falling toward 100p as the summer passed.

So was it a premium to the offer in June or more likely an opportunistic premium on the fall later on?

Nothing irregular in the price movements over the summer months to suggest a price. If the market got a sniff of the price today, or shortly, then maybe they come in and buy bigger to bid the price up. It looks like sellers in size guarding that breakout above 130p and no real inclination for a move higher right now. It has had a decent pop higher already on the stake building.

If they couldn't get the financing in the summer, probably less likely now, but I wonder if they will eventually come back for another go.

It looks worth keeping an eye on.

All imo
DYOR

[harrogate] 23/11/2023 14:15

Read the posts on here for the last few weeks

[kittym] 23/11/2023 14:05

The largest shareholder is Oceanwood. When I Google that, there are reports that it is closing down. Would be grateful for an explanation if anyone is across this.

[gaiusgracchus] 23/11/2023 08:55

New largest shareholder surely looking for a deal to exit. But with a credible counterparty this time!

[mighunter] 23/11/2023 08:05

Interesting nugget in the AGM statement, approached during the summer regarding potential takeover albeit broker unable to verify funding package.

[extrader] 17/11/2023 10:24

Here's an old article on Raper's investment approach :



.."As for investment decision process - this is a complex, multi-step process, but in general, I try to answer the following questions:

1) does this meet my minimum criteria for valuation (i.e., in general I won't buy anything more than 10x normalized free cash flow)?

2) does this have a strong downside protection (derived from asset value, or strategic value to an acquirer, or through potential strategic action)?

3) what does the market not understand about the value/quality of the business and how will that change in the next 12mos? i.e., what is going to get the market to view this asset like I do? What is the catalyst to rerate it?

Assuming all three of these criteria are met, then it can theoretically go into the book, provided point 3) is satisfied in spades - that is, I need to be fully convinced something is going to change, fairly imminently, as cheapness and downside protection alone are never enough.

I wonder what he thinks the catalyst for AVAP is - industry consolidation?

ATB

[harrogate] 17/11/2023 07:51

Lets kick off with this recent podcast/YouTube video with Jeremy Raper in relation to Avation "So I raised an SPV recently and this is live, this is public disclosed. I've made the filing. So I'm, I'm not going to talk about the strategy or specifically the company. But you know, yeah I've raised, I've raised money and taken entities I manage have taken a 20 something percent stake in a listed aircraft leasing company in the UK called Avation, AVAP, this is, this is all public filings and you know my goal is to maximize value for all shareholders.It's a very, it's a very, it's ostensibly a very cheap equity and I have a number of ideas to to kind of create value for all shareholders. And I think, I think having more bullets in the gun so to speak will be beneficial to to all shareholders of the company."

[harrogate] 10/11/2023 10:28

I don't see why anyone would get ripped off. We are all guessing but I doubt this is a wait and see what happens. It seems to me that the AVAP ability to grow and the NAV is all about those ATR purchase rights. We haven't yet seen evidence of how they can get hold of those planes given ATR production schedules or fund them. An increase in NAV is going to be slow. My bet is they need a deal of some sort.

[catsick] 10/11/2023 10:00

I think they are just looking to hold a position and see a convergence to nav, the assets are not that difficult to dispose of so. I don't think anyone will be ripping anyone off, these guys seem to gave got in cheap and happy to add to the position ,

[fishbournetrader] 10/11/2023 09:44

I am sure that it is a plan to rip off us long term holders.
Do not forget that when the share price was in the 250p to 300p range there was an offer on the table which was turned down by the board because they thought they could get better. I had built a stake 7 years preceding that offer so now a holder for over 10 years.

[argylerich] 10/11/2023 09:41

I'm not sure I can imagine someone investing that much without having some form of communication early on?

[harrogate] 10/11/2023 08:39

I doubt they will offer but they must have a plan here as Oceanwood showed the sort of discount you need to get rid of a large holding. Maybe they are lining up a buyer. Would be interesting to know if Jeff has engaged with them

[oapknob1] 10/11/2023 08:37

Offer coming ?

[harrogate] 10/11/2023 07:32

Well these guys are certainly going for it. Over 25% from a standing start.

[a_game] 03/11/2023 09:43

Lack of clarity regarding what?