Tullow Oil Share Discussion Threads

[hectorp] 04/2/2016 10:13

There is a currency war. Japan, China , the US are caught up in it, and the US is more likely to let the Dollar slide, their problem being, that its the so called reserve curency! The so called petro currency, so it is hard to push the dollar down, never the less, I can see it happening. Commodities will also rally during any " competitive devaluations" as one currency after the other drops against each other and against " real things".
The FED have blinked, realising that they simply can not permit the dollar to remain out side of the world currency falls, with their negative real rates etc.
This suggests no more rate rises for the FED and possibly reversing their stupid decision of December. Indeed this is what the markets now are telling us they expect. So back to TLW and OIL - A rally in crude price due to currency movement, is going to mask the fact of oversupply. So any short rally caused by currency movement, should not be taken as evidence that oil has seen the floor.
I'd sell into any rallies in TLW until we are closer to the REAL floor in the price of crude IMHO ( Unless TLW is still a takeover target of course)
H>

[edmondj] 04/2/2016 08:50

As of yesterday, it is mainly a response to a surprise plunge in the dollar.

[betelgeuse1] 04/2/2016 08:49

brent on a surge

gonna to 240p next stop here lads

[hearts1] 04/2/2016 08:45

Hi NB, I think the shorts are a play on oil price and the debt pile of TLW.I don't think it's on any short term fundementals, TLW have already given guidance for 2015 and are one of the best hedged companies for 2016, add to that TEN starting mid year.But if oil price stays low then TLW will struggle with debt.

[betelgeuse1] 04/2/2016 08:43

brent on a surge

[betelgeuse1] 04/2/2016 08:41

SIA going nuts also

[betelgeuse1] 04/2/2016 08:39

Into orbit!!

[cestnous] 04/2/2016 08:38

I remember a couple of years ago when the great vampire sid was calling peak oil and forecasting 400 dollars a barrel!

[nicebut] 04/2/2016 08:34

Hearts,

Its interesting that the total short is roughly same as couple of weeks ago...Only .2 in it. At a quick add up...

[betelgeuse1] 04/2/2016 08:29

all the oily charts on new recent highs,that tells me its beginning of a new trend

[volsung] 04/2/2016 08:27

Out with a nice profit however will probably regret it. Should just be grateful to the share gods :)

[betelgeuse1] 04/2/2016 08:26

SIA also new recent high, come on Soco and Tullow and PMO and ENQ and RDSB

[betelgeuse1] 04/2/2016 08:24

240p next stop i feel

[hearts1] 04/2/2016 08:23

Sold the trading ones again. Want to see us break 176.

[betelgeuse1] 04/2/2016 08:20

going way way higher here

[sawadee3] 04/2/2016 08:16

Legendary year for the easy money chaps!

Happy days :-)

[rustle2] 04/2/2016 08:13

How about an oil price graph in the header anyone?

[bookbroker] 04/2/2016 07:57

Everyone talks about the demise of oil, that is too far-fetched, do you really believe that global warming will convince people entirely, and battery technology may be advancing at a rapid pace, but I don't see it as that accessible in emerging markets like Africa in terms of motor vehicles, think charging for instance!

[spirito] 04/2/2016 07:52

Huge advances in battery technology will start to erode oil demand in the not too distant future.

[ny boy] 04/2/2016 07:50

Holmes,

150p support has held quite well so far, crude is basing out somewhere mid $20's, still early days but plenty of time to go long once a new trend direction has been confirmed.

[hearts1] 04/2/2016 06:57

NB, let's hope he's having a bad year! From what I have read he's betting on China to drop badly, so probably a bet that oil doesn't recover.http://uk.businessinsider.com/odey-asset-management-could-suffer-from-sainsburys-home-retail-group-takeover-offer-2016-1

[gersemi] 04/2/2016 06:54

Oil just popped again

[volsung] 04/2/2016 06:42

Read back a bit on the TLW BB holmess and you will find I bought TLW shares yesterday morning. Not totally convinced the bearish trend is over but I know nothing goes up or down in a straight line.

[betelgeuse1] 04/2/2016 06:29

One morning we will wake up and it with have an A saying "the company has a bid approach" and it will be up 130p