Tullow Oil Share Discussion Threads

[warwick69] 29/1/2016 15:05

The rally will become a stampede as shorts will have to close

[warwick69] 29/1/2016 15:04

The reason for the dramatic shift since $27 is the pure size of shorts in financial derivatives it has never been about the real commodity that is just a side show? The financial world has become one gigantic casino and it all depends on the flow of the bets when all were shorting the price of the underlying commodity fell now the bets are all being unwound the price is rising nothing has fundamentally changed in the commodity space since December when the Saudis first started this process? The same with the share price the huge increase in short positions to circa 9% pushed this down more than would have been the case just on the back of the oil price and that is now starting to unravel

[ramas] 29/1/2016 14:55

Assumption ... Saudis have lost the market share war that was off their own making - let's not go into the reasons why Problem with continued high production is the Saudis only achieve low prices, the cost of production is irrelevant here , it's the cost to run the empire which is key.Cut production and you lose market share but the break even point - cost versus production must be far higher than $30 something bucks. Shale in the meantime has been totally misunderstood and the political shift has allowed Iran back into the market who are not surprisingly very keen to shift as much oil as possible before obsolescence as an energy product, for example Tony Seba puts a very compelling case for petro redundancy by 2030 , any truth to that and demand will only be to the downside in future years. My point is like it or not the oil nations will need to cooperate or go broke ...maybe the deals will be hidden from view who knows .... Time will tell

[loafofbread] 29/1/2016 14:53

Somebody wants in this afternoon.

[holmess] 29/1/2016 14:38

Cat100 - 1 word - sentiment

[cat100] 29/1/2016 13:37

LONDON—European buyers of Iranian crude oil are struggling to find tankers to ship the commodity, shipping company officials said, highlighting a challenge for Iran as it ramps up exports with the end of western sanctions.

Also
Russian Deputy Prime Minister Arkady Dvorkovich on Friday played down expectations that Russia could coordinate with OPEC to arrest the fall in oil prices by reducing production, saying the state would not intervene to balance the market.


Where does that leave the trade? Still no position here

[investordave] 29/1/2016 13:01

I expect the MMs to drop the share price this afternoon to try to panic nervous PIs into selling before the weekend. Sit tight folks.

[hearts1] 29/1/2016 12:56

Below $20 for WTI? Really, remember most crudes run off a discount to the benchmarks. So at $20 Canadian crude would sell at $6, not even covering opex let alone capex and G&A. It can't really get that low as producers won't sell down there, there's a limit to how much speculation can influence the price equilibrium.

[investordave] 29/1/2016 12:55

We seem to have run out steam a little today but after the rise we have seen this week I'm not complaining. Let's hope for a further rise in the share price next week. Holding right to my shares. They have a long way to go in my view.

[volsung] 29/1/2016 12:31

Closed my TLW long for a nice profit this morning. Will wait to see if it can break 180 or bounce from 150

[ramas] 29/1/2016 12:24

As mentioned earlier Saudis might be slowly coming to the realisation that they can no longer push out the new oil ... Shale and Iran oil is here to stay and the Saudis only have themselves to blame, time to be pragmatic and take oil back to $50

[treeshake] 29/1/2016 12:18

Warwick - not if they shorted from 1500 !

[holmess] 29/1/2016 12:16

Sniper - exactly as I see it - 265p next stop on my chart.

[edmondj] 29/1/2016 12:13

A Saudi production cut, thereby helping Iran just as it's poised to resume supply. Like really on the cards!

[rubberbullets] 29/1/2016 12:03

A few more days of 10p rises towards 250p

[ny boy] 29/1/2016 12:01

Can't see any production cut, can't even see a meeting Saudi's don't want it, they have an agenda.

Mostly likely a dead cat bounce before we move lower and into the dead season.

Still see crude falling to low $20's maybe just under $20

Here, it's all about short term trading banking profits along the way, which many are doing, important that 150P support hold but with the bigger picture likely to play out, I see this re testing the lows and will probably base out 75/85p

[market sniper3] 29/1/2016 10:10

TLW Tullow Oil

Breakout from downward bearish channel. Volume looks liking its picking up and share price riding above short term EMAS..............

[gersemi] 29/1/2016 09:11

PCI could be in play but any news regarding takeovers or mergers in the O & G sector should trigger an appreciation in valuations for many mid/small oilers. All those distressed and cheap assets are there for the taking by cash-rich oiler

[warwick69] 29/1/2016 09:07

This has now bounced almost 50% from recent low that I pain for those short in any ones language no matter where you are short from ????They are in trouble !!!

[hearts1] 29/1/2016 09:07

Starting to move.

[warwick69] 29/1/2016 09:06

I'll say it again shorts are in serious trouble buying into a reversal of trend is very costly they will trigger all sorts of stops on the upside from fellow shorters!!!

[gersemi] 29/1/2016 09:03

It's a balance of competing forces. A stronger dollar (applying downward pressure on all things commodity related including oil) must be offset by falling crude supplies (which will happen when countries and oil companies reach distress point and quite simply turn off production. Such a scenario is just around the corner in US shale and Latin America)

But the main spring for an appreciation in the oil price are those huge numbers of short betters ready to cover should any negative force appear on the oil supply side

The balance of probability suggests an upward rather than downward move

[ramas] 29/1/2016 08:55

Really good point made earlier it seems open only have the downside lever and have probably lost the upside lever. The tough part is to realise this and get on with maximising their petro dollars while they can. Solar and energy storage is the future. Extremism whoever caused it has changed the dynamic forever and there is a real desire to lose oil dependence as quickly as possible

[edmondj] 29/1/2016 08:52

If more central banks push rates negative, that would increase attractions in the US dollar (unless the Fed does an about-turn to reverse its minuscule rate rise) hence decrease the POO unless an inverse relation with the $ no longer applies.

Recent trend in the $ has been most influential over oil prices, relative to the supply/demand debate.