Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Tullow Oil Plc LSE:TLW London Ordinary Share GB0001500809 ORD 10P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  1.55 0.78% 199.50 6,074,332 16:35:09
Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price
199.90 200.10 202.00 197.75 200.70
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Oil & Gas Producers 1,457.91 204.27 4.78 40.9 2,780
Last Trade Time Trade Type Trade Size Trade Price Currency
18:45:00 O 1,073,900 2,007.00 GBX

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Date Time Title Posts
20/7/201904:42Tullow Oil PLC - Poised for a Takeover?34,436
04/12/201809:09Tullow Possible Bid Approach Rumours 10.3.17. Discuss 2
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Tullow Oil Daily Update: Tullow Oil Plc is listed in the Oil & Gas Producers sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker TLW. The last closing price for Tullow Oil was 197.95p.
Tullow Oil Plc has a 4 week average price of 197.75p and a 12 week average price of 191.30p.
The 1 year high share price is 273.90p while the 1 year low share price is currently 163.30p.
There are currently 1,393,616,501 shares in issue and the average daily traded volume is 5,556,647 shares. The market capitalisation of Tullow Oil Plc is £2,780,264,919.50.
ifthecapfits: About ECO, but relevant to us too. Explorers don't get any more exciting than Eco Atlantic - which is why I have been buying By Gary Newman | Sunday 30 June 2019 30 Shares Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from ShareProphets). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Private investors seem to love the boom or bust scenario that applies to many of the exploration drills for oil and gas, but is it really worth taking the risk on these types of plays? In the majority of cases I would say not and I tend to avoid them these days – gone are the times where every drill used to see big share price rises for the companies involved, as a matter of course – as in the event of failure the share price tends to crash badly. Generally the odds are not in your favour as many of these drills have a low chance-of-success, are in regions with little or no existing infrastructure to bring any discovery to market for years, and when smaller companies are involved, often they will only have the funds for one drill, so it is really all or nothing for them. The upside is often the chance of making a large discovery which could be worth many multiples of the current share price. One company which I seem to be seeing mentioned a lot recently is Eco Atlantic (ECO) which is about to embark on its first drill in offshore Guyana, where it has a 15% working interest and is partnered by operator Tullow Oil (TLW) with 60%, and Total with the remaining 25%. It’s Orinduik block has best estimate prospective resources of nearly 600mmboe net to Eco and it is about to embark on two consectuive drills at its Jethro Lobe and Joe prospects, with the former exploring a cretaceous target, as well as the upper and lower tertiary turbidites. But what makes these drills any different to any of the others, as others companies have also been in a position where they are targeting resources of this sort of size. Geographical location is never any guarantee of success just because you happen to be located near to large existing finds, but in this case I would argue that it plays a bigger factor than normal as it is right on the edge of the area where ExxonMobil has already had great success and has discovered over 5.5 billion barrels of oil so far across the Stabroek area, with its Hammerhead block extending into Orinduik, and Eco’s block also being up-dip of these discoveries. Hammerhead found 197ft of oil bearing sandstones. Exxon has already sanctioned the development of the Liza prospect, which is expected to produce up to 220,000bopd, and is embarking on a 30 well programme. It’s rig is currently testing the Longtail-1 discovery, with results due soon – if they are good and land during the Jethro drill it certainly won’t do any harm - and will then move on to drill Hammerhead-3. Exxon has so far achieved a successful strike ratio in excess of 90%, and although that doesn’t guarantee that Eco will also be successful, it certainly bodes well and is why the Eco wells have a COS in excess of 40% for each well, which is about as good as it gets for an exploration drill. Eco isn’t totally reliant on one drill either, as it is funded for these initial two wells plus up to a further six additional wells, so that certainly reduces the risk of a complete share price crash should the first drill prove to be a failure. With everything else going on in the area, I would expect that in the event of success we would see a rapid move towards a situation where any finds are put into production, and the economics for the area are good – the neighbouring Liza field is expected to produce at $35/barrel for phase 1, dropping to $25 per barrel for phase 2, which makes it ones of the lowest cost major offshore developments in the world. Given the size of its partners, funding shouldn’t be a problem for any development, and I would expect a deal to be done to help Eco to finance its share, should that stage be reached. There is of course still plenty of risk involved and if the first drill fails I would expect to see the share price below the current level of around 70p, but also think it would quickly find some report with the second drill straight afterwards. You could also argue that the company isn’t particularly cheap at £127 million market cap, given it is purely an explorer, but the amount of interest generated should it make a big find – and with likely a steady stream of further news to come – will make that look cheap, I believe (similar questions were always raised about the valuation of another favourite of mine, Hurricane Energy, but now that is producing and valued at nearly £1.05 billion). So, if ever you are going to take a bit of a gamble on shares in an exploration drill, then I believe that this is the one to buy in for – I have done myself and it will be the first exploration drill for a small company that I’ve held shares in for a long time, as usually I don’t see the risk as being worthwhile. It also seems like a good level to buy at as the share price has dropped back a fair bit recently and is well below the level that funds were last raised at a few months back. It would seem that the Canadians would agree, as the shares are dual listed on the TSX and are currently trading there at the equivalent of 86p, and it is unusual to see such a big discrepancy between that and the London price. If this drill attracts the level of interest that I am expecting, then there may well be the chance to derisk some of your holding before results come, but this is one where I will be leaving at the very least part of my investment to run and see how things pan out several drills down the line. For an exploration drill, I would rate this as about as strong a buy as you really get for that scenario, and if it is successful I can see a lot of upside from the current share price, just based on the first drill alone.
sarkasm: Investomania 4 attractive resources stocks? BP plc, Glencore PLC, Tullow Oil plc and Premier Oil PLC Do these resources stocks offer growth potential? BP plc (LON:BP) (BP.L), Glencore PLC (LON:GLEN) (GLEN.L), Tullow Oil plc (LON:TLW) (TLW.L) and Premier Oil PLC (LON:PMO) (PMO.L) June 27, 2019 Robert Stephens, CFA FTSE 100 BP plc BP plc The outlook for resources shares BP plc (LON:BP) (BP.L), Glencore PLC (LON:GLEN) (GLEN.L), Tullow Oil plc (LON:TLW) (TLW.L) and Premier Oil PLC (LON:PMO) (PMO.L) may be somewhat uncertain at the moment in my view. Challenges facing the world economy, notably the trade war between the US and China, could cause demand for a variety of commodities to come under pressure. Still, I think the BP share price offers investment appeal for the long term. The business has adopted a strategy which I think could improve the quality of its asset base, with investment in Upstream and Downstream segments having the potential to catalyse growth over the long run. Although BP’s short-term prospects could be volatile due to geopolitical risks across a variety of oil-producing nations, I feel its long-term appeal could be high relative to its sector peers while it trades on a P/E ratio of under 12. Tullow Oil’s update released this week showed that it is making progress in delivering its strategy. The company is seeking to increase production, while also reducing debt in order to strengthen its balance sheet. Since the Tullow Oil share price currently trades on a P/E ratio of around 10, I think it could offer a margin of safety at the moment. With further investment in its exploration activities, I believe it could enjoy improved performance over the long run. Premier Oil may also offer good value for money at the moment. The oil stock has a rating of around 4, which is among the lowest I can find in the FTSE 350 just now. This suggests that investors are cautious about its future outlook. This is understandable in my opinion, with Premier Oil lacking the financial strength of some of its sector peers. But with the business expected to reduce debt and keep a disciplined stance on costs, I think it could beat many of its industry peers’ returns in the long run. Glencore’s regulatory challenges may hold back its stock price over the near term, while macroeconomic fears may cause investor sentiment to further weaken. However, with the stock having a P/E ratio of around 7, I think it could offer good value for money. Glencore’s focus on ramping-up production of materials used in electric vehicle batteries could lead to a tailwind over the long run.
oilretire: Tullow Oil plc with EPIC/TICKER (LON:TLW) has had its stock rating noted as ‘Reiterates217; with the recommendation being set at ‘CONVICTION BUY’ this morning by analysts at Goldman Sachs. Tullow Oil plc are listed in the Oil & Gas sector within UK Main Market. Goldman Sachs have set their target price at 337 GBX on its stock. This is indicating the analyst believes there is a potential upside of 63.4% from the opening price of 206.3 GBX. Over the last 30 and 90 trading days the company share price has decreased 19 points and decreased 16.5 points respectively. The 1 year high for the stock price is 273.9 GBX while the 52 week low for the stock is 163.3 GBX. Tullow Oil plc has a 50 day moving average of 233.26 GBX and the 200 Day Moving Average price is recorded at 222.12. There are currently 1,402,491,416 shares in issue with the average daily volume traded being 5,847,208. Market capitalisation for LON:TLW is £2,922,792,025 GBP.
bootycall: subsurface. I see your views are well supported on this board. Factually you are correct but you have missed out on the extenuating circumstances. Firstly, the model of applying for new licences in new frontiers, proving them up and farming them down has worked well for the best part of a hundred years. This all changed with the US shale revolution and the collapse of the oil price.Mergers and acquisitions totally dried up. The share price of virtually every single E&P collapsed over the same period. Tullow looked as though it was well positioned because of the well productivity of Jubilee and Ten, but then the Ivory Coast government decided to grab a piece of the action with the ITLOS dispute. This is what is known in investing as a “black swan” event. Relations between Ivory Coast and Ghana had been stable for a long time before and Tullow were in no way culpable for this development. The Company was acutely aware of the huge cost of the Jubilee and Ten development and had always expected to farm down to reduce debt levels. ITLOS not only hindered farm down negotiations it stopped their optimisation of their key asset and left them with rig capacity they were unable to utilise. The decision to declare force majeure on the Seadrill rig contract was proven incorrect in a court of law but Tullow had been advised that they had a strong case to argue. Normally such a black swan event such as an ITLOS dispute would be bad enough but Tullow had to deal with the fact that the rig market had collapsed preventing the rig from finding alternative work when it was legally ordered to stop drilling. May I point out that it turned out to be a shrewd and calculated move in the circumstances which benefitted all of the partners. Of course, Kosmos were able to argue that owing to procedural lapses they could wriggle out of their share of the bill at Tullows expense. Have you ever asked yourself why the other partners did not adopt the same stance? After the ITLOS dispute was settled Tullow secured a new rig , with extremely flexible terms and a substantially lower day rate. I believe the savings to the consortium were in the many hundreds of millions. Had Tullow honoured the contract in the circumstances the shareholders would have had something to complain about as the Company may have gone bust because of breach of banking covenants. As if that was not bad enough we then had problems with the Turret mooring system on the Jubilee field, although unlike Kosmos ,I believe Tullow had prudently taken out very comprehensive insurance cover which left shareholders fully compensated for this unforeseen event which was once again was not a fault of their making. I could go on about Shells technical team choosing the location of the unsuccessful wells in French Guyana against the advice of Tullow. I could point out that Tullow managed to successfully emerge from the ITLOS dispute without been seen to take sides and were subsequently rewarded by the Ivory Coast with some great blocks... which they immediately farmed out to Cairn showing a great theoretical profit within a few months. Then we come to Uganda. Tullow was guilty of good behaviour. Heritage effectively did a runner and left them with the bill. Museveni has continued to frustrate successful exploitation of this field with his demands for a large local refinery. Tullow of course successfully farmed down most of its holding and let CNOOC and Total deal with all the politics. Regarding DRC. Tullow shareholders have in my opinion a perfectly valid legal claim under international law against the parties who confiscated and subsequently rewarded our licence block to Caprikat and Foxwhelp. Interestingly the Financial Times reported that a Mr Dan Gertler, a businessman close to the Congolese President,is involved in one of these two companies, which apparently had no known track record in the oil industry. I will let posters draw their own conclusions about what happened but I do not see what Tullow could have done in the circumstances. I make no qualms about saying that I am supportive of the management team at Tullow. Owing to many of the issues highlighted above, the Company has had to prioritise debt reduction over building up reserves in the last four years. In doing so it has carefully retained and added to an exciting prospect inventory which should reward shareholders longer term.
rationaleee: Surprisingly TLW has been the worst performing leverage stock since the bottom of the oil market in feb'16. Oil price from Feb '16 of $28/bbl to todays $82/bbl is close to 200% rise while TLW has gone up from 130p to 260p i.e. 100% rise on an absolute basis. Even after taking into account roughly 40% dilution, TLW has massively underperformed similar 50% diluted stocks like PMO, ENQ. Was TLW massively mispriced in 2014 back when oil was at $80 or is TLW mispriced now with oil at $80?? It seems share buyback is the only way to drive the share price, as a prospect of potential dividend is not enticing IIs yet.
rationaleee: The convertible bondholders arbitrauging, play these games before close. Usually they play all day. Its in their favor to keep share price around their conversion price. Hoping TLW pays it off soon, seen exact price action at PMO for over a year.. Intra day action/games matter less, closing price is what matters the most for LTHs. Past two days oil price went up 4% while TLW went up c.4%. Is it only a leveraged play when oil goes down? at $80, the $200mn litigation charge can be made back as well... Even taking into account RI with respect to the EV, share price should be much higher, i.e. market cap should be £4bn+.
rationaleee: There seems to be an inherent arbitrage activity going on with TLW. The Convertible bond that TLW issued in 2016 seems to be the reason. The share price effects seem similar to what PMO had with their convertibles holding their share price down. Obviously TLWs Convertible Bond is much smaller compared to its market cap, but if the HFs are doing the arbitrage activity like in PMOs case then it is in their interest to keep the share price on or below the conversion price. This is of course just speculation but i think the Convertible Bonds are having some sort of an impact on TLWs poor return because its hard to explain why TLW has gone up from 145p to only 270p when oil went in the same period from $47 to $80/bbl. As a leveraged player with improving financials the share price should be much higher even after taking into account the Rights Issue. I think we should pay the convertible bond off or force conversion so the share price could move higher in a confident way.
teamwork1: True tlw share price should be 3
mariopeter: Sitting here thinking if they proved up Kenya and sold 90% Kenya for $2.3 b cash and 700m development carry would we be happy ? TLW share price would probably hit £10+. Total have the lolly ($23b). Used $6 per recoverable barrel like the Ugandan deal and assumed 500m recov barrels.....its a nice debt to equity of 30% going forward. Who knows.
bobsidian: There seems to be expectation that the price of WTI crude oil will drop in the near future below $40 which could drag the price of Brent crude oil down into the mid $45 range. Were this to happen then TLW could see its share price tumble to as low as £1.50 - around its next natural support level. A potentially hefty share price tumble. But then as always when viability concerns become paramount so outsized share price moves to the downside seem to occur. If the above comes to pass and speculation about viability proves unfounded then a sharp reverse back up in the price of oil could give rise to outsized moves to the upside in the share price of TLW. It is noted that since TLW already exited the FTSE100 back at the March review then there will be no additional downside pressure on the share price from forced selling linked to an index exit. All sector bear markets have a conclusion. The problem is that their ultimate conclusion can see share price plunges by sector participants so extreme as to be offputting to any buyer. Interestingly the intraday share price plunge on Wednesday 29 July did have shades of that kind of conclusion. I suppose you look for benchmark share price performances of sector participants to provide an indication of an ultimate low. Perhaps one such benchmark could be the share price of BP. revisiting its £3 low last seen in 2010. Or another could be sight of the share price of RDSB revisiting its 2008 lows around the £12 level. The tracking of either one of those moves could see the share price of TLW at the £1.50 level.
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