Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Tullow Oil Plc LSE:TLW London Ordinary Share GB0001500809 ORD 10P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  -0.50p -0.24% 207.30p 9,208,665 16:35:04
Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price
206.10p 206.40p 212.20p 205.40p 210.60p
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Oil & Gas Producers 1,457.91 204.27 4.78 43.0 2,889.0

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Date Time Title Posts
26/5/201903:36Tullow Oil PLC - Poised for a Takeover?34,256
04/12/201809:09Tullow Possible Bid Approach Rumours 10.3.17. Discuss 2
25/7/201808:35Tullow Oil (TLW) One to Watch on Wednesday -
11/4/201811:41L2 - Observations, comments and screenshots49

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Tullow Oil Daily Update: Tullow Oil Plc is listed in the Oil & Gas Producers sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker TLW. The last closing price for Tullow Oil was 207.80p.
Tullow Oil Plc has a 4 week average price of 205.40p and a 12 week average price of 205.40p.
The 1 year high share price is 273.90p while the 1 year low share price is currently 163.30p.
There are currently 1,393,616,501 shares in issue and the average daily traded volume is 6,373,412 shares. The market capitalisation of Tullow Oil Plc is £2,888,967,006.57.
mccracken227: Rayrac Update due 26 June, manicat I hope we have a lot higher share price before the bidding starts
bootycall: subsurface. I see your views are well supported on this board. Factually you are correct but you have missed out on the extenuating circumstances. Firstly, the model of applying for new licences in new frontiers, proving them up and farming them down has worked well for the best part of a hundred years. This all changed with the US shale revolution and the collapse of the oil price.Mergers and acquisitions totally dried up. The share price of virtually every single E&P collapsed over the same period. Tullow looked as though it was well positioned because of the well productivity of Jubilee and Ten, but then the Ivory Coast government decided to grab a piece of the action with the ITLOS dispute. This is what is known in investing as a “black swan” event. Relations between Ivory Coast and Ghana had been stable for a long time before and Tullow were in no way culpable for this development. The Company was acutely aware of the huge cost of the Jubilee and Ten development and had always expected to farm down to reduce debt levels. ITLOS not only hindered farm down negotiations it stopped their optimisation of their key asset and left them with rig capacity they were unable to utilise. The decision to declare force majeure on the Seadrill rig contract was proven incorrect in a court of law but Tullow had been advised that they had a strong case to argue. Normally such a black swan event such as an ITLOS dispute would be bad enough but Tullow had to deal with the fact that the rig market had collapsed preventing the rig from finding alternative work when it was legally ordered to stop drilling. May I point out that it turned out to be a shrewd and calculated move in the circumstances which benefitted all of the partners. Of course, Kosmos were able to argue that owing to procedural lapses they could wriggle out of their share of the bill at Tullows expense. Have you ever asked yourself why the other partners did not adopt the same stance? After the ITLOS dispute was settled Tullow secured a new rig , with extremely flexible terms and a substantially lower day rate. I believe the savings to the consortium were in the many hundreds of millions. Had Tullow honoured the contract in the circumstances the shareholders would have had something to complain about as the Company may have gone bust because of breach of banking covenants. As if that was not bad enough we then had problems with the Turret mooring system on the Jubilee field, although unlike Kosmos ,I believe Tullow had prudently taken out very comprehensive insurance cover which left shareholders fully compensated for this unforeseen event which was once again was not a fault of their making. I could go on about Shells technical team choosing the location of the unsuccessful wells in French Guyana against the advice of Tullow. I could point out that Tullow managed to successfully emerge from the ITLOS dispute without been seen to take sides and were subsequently rewarded by the Ivory Coast with some great blocks... which they immediately farmed out to Cairn showing a great theoretical profit within a few months. Then we come to Uganda. Tullow was guilty of good behaviour. Heritage effectively did a runner and left them with the bill. Museveni has continued to frustrate successful exploitation of this field with his demands for a large local refinery. Tullow of course successfully farmed down most of its holding and let CNOOC and Total deal with all the politics. Regarding DRC. Tullow shareholders have in my opinion a perfectly valid legal claim under international law against the parties who confiscated and subsequently rewarded our licence block to Caprikat and Foxwhelp. Interestingly the Financial Times reported that a Mr Dan Gertler, a businessman close to the Congolese President,is involved in one of these two companies, which apparently had no known track record in the oil industry. I will let posters draw their own conclusions about what happened but I do not see what Tullow could have done in the circumstances. I make no qualms about saying that I am supportive of the management team at Tullow. Owing to many of the issues highlighted above, the Company has had to prioritise debt reduction over building up reserves in the last four years. In doing so it has carefully retained and added to an exciting prospect inventory which should reward shareholders longer term.
billy_buffin: TLW? Not likely, but Share price did jump while back.
bootycall: Funny to hear Angus McCoss saying COS on each Guyana exploration well to be drilled is 1 in 4, to 1 in 5, against his usual 15% for a wildcat. Lisa and Hammerhead have proven both the cretaceous and tertiary plays respectively. He also says in the Q&A right at the end that "it is pretty evident Hammerhead extends into our block to some extent" the COS must surely be 60-80% as the prospect is up dip of the discovery. He also implied that a successful drilling of Jethro a 100mbls prospect(at a total cost of $28m in 1350m of water) would derisk a number of tertiary targets nearby. If any of these wells are successful, the prospect inventory will be risk adjusted downwards resulting in a material change to analysts valuations. The oncoming FID in Uganda (mid 2019) and Kenya (end 2019) should also be catalysts for the share price. Tullow is already extremely attractive based on its forecast cash flow yield. The initial drilling locations in the Guyana drilling programme are not the largest prospects to be drilled (and therefore do not individually impact the NAV valuation that much). In the event of a successful outcome, they will in my opinion, restore the premium rating to the share price that existed several years ago.
rationaleee: Surprisingly TLW has been the worst performing leverage stock since the bottom of the oil market in feb'16. Oil price from Feb '16 of $28/bbl to todays $82/bbl is close to 200% rise while TLW has gone up from 130p to 260p i.e. 100% rise on an absolute basis. Even after taking into account roughly 40% dilution, TLW has massively underperformed similar 50% diluted stocks like PMO, ENQ. Was TLW massively mispriced in 2014 back when oil was at $80 or is TLW mispriced now with oil at $80?? It seems share buyback is the only way to drive the share price, as a prospect of potential dividend is not enticing IIs yet.
rationaleee: The convertible bondholders arbitrauging, play these games before close. Usually they play all day. Its in their favor to keep share price around their conversion price. Hoping TLW pays it off soon, seen exact price action at PMO for over a year.. Intra day action/games matter less, closing price is what matters the most for LTHs. Past two days oil price went up 4% while TLW went up c.4%. Is it only a leveraged play when oil goes down? at $80, the $200mn litigation charge can be made back as well... Even taking into account RI with respect to the EV, share price should be much higher, i.e. market cap should be £4bn+.
rationaleee: There seems to be an inherent arbitrage activity going on with TLW. The Convertible bond that TLW issued in 2016 seems to be the reason. The share price effects seem similar to what PMO had with their convertibles holding their share price down. Obviously TLWs Convertible Bond is much smaller compared to its market cap, but if the HFs are doing the arbitrage activity like in PMOs case then it is in their interest to keep the share price on or below the conversion price. This is of course just speculation but i think the Convertible Bonds are having some sort of an impact on TLWs poor return because its hard to explain why TLW has gone up from 145p to only 270p when oil went in the same period from $47 to $80/bbl. As a leveraged player with improving financials the share price should be much higher even after taking into account the Rights Issue. I think we should pay the convertible bond off or force conversion so the share price could move higher in a confident way.
teamwork1: True tlw share price should be 3
mariopeter: Sitting here thinking if they proved up Kenya and sold 90% Kenya for $2.3 b cash and 700m development carry would we be happy ? TLW share price would probably hit £10+. Total have the lolly ($23b). Used $6 per recoverable barrel like the Ugandan deal and assumed 500m recov barrels.....its a nice debt to equity of 30% going forward. Who knows.
bobsidian: There seems to be expectation that the price of WTI crude oil will drop in the near future below $40 which could drag the price of Brent crude oil down into the mid $45 range. Were this to happen then TLW could see its share price tumble to as low as £1.50 - around its next natural support level. A potentially hefty share price tumble. But then as always when viability concerns become paramount so outsized share price moves to the downside seem to occur. If the above comes to pass and speculation about viability proves unfounded then a sharp reverse back up in the price of oil could give rise to outsized moves to the upside in the share price of TLW. It is noted that since TLW already exited the FTSE100 back at the March review then there will be no additional downside pressure on the share price from forced selling linked to an index exit. All sector bear markets have a conclusion. The problem is that their ultimate conclusion can see share price plunges by sector participants so extreme as to be offputting to any buyer. Interestingly the intraday share price plunge on Wednesday 29 July did have shades of that kind of conclusion. I suppose you look for benchmark share price performances of sector participants to provide an indication of an ultimate low. Perhaps one such benchmark could be the share price of BP. revisiting its £3 low last seen in 2010. Or another could be sight of the share price of RDSB revisiting its 2008 lows around the £12 level. The tracking of either one of those moves could see the share price of TLW at the £1.50 level.
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