Tullow Oil Share Discussion Threads

[warwick69] 09/2/2016 07:44

Shorts have no divine right to always get it right? I am sure there are a lot of concerned shorts playing a very dangerous game? Don't forget Porsche and a few others where shorts got extremely burnt one trader even killed himself ? Not all trades work

[shaf5] 09/2/2016 07:18

Shorting is selling shares u don't have. Like borrowing which causes price to drop. But u need to buy back again at some point which will then cause price to rise. The shorter makes money as he has sold high and bought low
But I dont think they will be covering their shorts tomorrow. Obviously they think oil has further to drop and will buy back Tlw when oil is where they expect it to get to

[volsung] 09/2/2016 05:26

If he tried to 'megadump' tomorrow the price would rise quite a lot as he would be buying the shares back.

[mcsean2164] 09/2/2016 00:38

Just wondering. Odey is 4.4% short.

I'm not really that familiar with the rules, does this mean that he has borrowed and sold already or just that he has borrowed?

Could he be thinking of doing a mega dump tomorrow, i.e. dumping all 4.4% at once?

It's probably what I would do if I could.... and had that type of holding. It takes a while to assess FY, mega dump could cause panic.... Maybe I should have waited before topping at 185p?

[jovi1] 08/2/2016 23:54

hearts

I believe the reason for odey like may shorter tend to choose very liquid stock, and if you believe poo is going to 20 or less there are few stock better than tlw and genel to short.
another reason for this is that many think about TLW is a take over target but oday knows that this is difficult as need state permission to do it.
as usual I did some number of a napkins and with TEN production we should achieve at least 20% increase production and this should make at least 2bil T/O
and give the same gross at 38% this should conservatively go to approx. 800mill.
and over 1 bill cash flow.
but in 2017 with all as equal without developing and new finding you would expect a Reduction in capex by at least 500 mill. and T/O 2.5 bill and profit of 1.2 bil
all this are for me conservative estimate with oil price at considerably lower price that most of us believe will be.
clearly there is some guessing here but at the moment seems very achievable.

[leoneobull] 08/2/2016 23:10

I am all in. Timing lousy. Wednesday going to be volatile

[slim 333] 08/2/2016 21:12

Although investors were hoping for a decoupling of the oil price from Tullow’s share price, there still remains a very strong correlation between the two. For some time I have thought the oil market is rigged for political reasons especially as some of the big players like Russia and Saudi don’t have much sympathy for markets. Either the Saudis punishing the US for shale oil or the US punishing Russia for Ukraine and support of Assad might explain the present glut. If economic warfare is behind the current depressed price this might last longer than normal as it takes a long time for oil producers to cut back.

Reading the Peak Oil Barrel website suggests that ‘low oil price regime might well last for the duration of Obama administration unless Russia folds.’
Happily, Obama will be on the way out just when production cuts are really biting. In anticipation of this an oil price recovery is a strong likelihood before the end of 2016. If I’m right, the rebound could be vigorous.

[edmondj] 08/2/2016 20:51

It goes back to his claims in early 2015, the business cycle was overdue a downturn, and this time around indebted companies/stocks will get hit especially hard. Each to their own opinion!

[hearts1] 08/2/2016 20:43

I still don't think his short position is based on TLW fundementals, more on he thinks there will be a market downturn and a new low for Brent.TLW has a high beta and is impacted due to debt levels. At present most of the big boys are split, with half thinking the bottom has already been hit and the rest looking for more downside.Reality is no one knows.

[jovi1] 08/2/2016 16:51

nice if my math is right and my guessing on which share odey are shorting is true they should be able to increase the position to approx. 5.3 to 6.1 or about 10 mill share.
but as they keep shorting some are covering the position and fresh by are coming back to the market. some are the T10 band confident of report.
all in all I am happy with result today given the overall market and a fall on the back of a big jump.
let hope US turn the cornet this evening and we will enjoy tomorrow

[nicebut] 08/2/2016 15:56

MAN DOWN TO .56% from .68%
OXFORD DOWN A BIT TO .66% from .70%

WAIT FOR IT...ODEY INCREASED TO 4.4% from 4.19%

[shaf5] 08/2/2016 13:56

www.rt.com/shows/sophieco/331693-oil-prices-opec-agreement/

[jovi1] 08/2/2016 13:54

my hope for today is that down open down but will rally above 16100 that I would think was the support level and this will at least half the daily loss.
what the odds for oil at 42 by end of march or before?

[jovi1] 08/2/2016 13:03

hi Dave
personally I got some more at 174.1 and that is above my average paid.
oil will be volatile for some time but share are slowly moving away from the daily oil price and in a day where down is expected to open -230 this drop is not that bad, last months in similar situation we where down 17%.
if any good news will come up in production cut it will be in usa time as it is the most effective time.
I feel sorry for genl every time they have good news the oil price tanks and all evaporate quickly,
in any case going back to my buy I have no plan to sell until 2020 at the earliest it is just timing the top up.

good luck

[fsawatcher] 08/2/2016 13:02

would be a good sign if odey begin closing out on the down days rather than adding more shorting leverage

market worried about 'WAR'?

but between which countries? turks and russia? iran and saudia arabia, north korea and south korea

low oil could be last straw tipping point for sanction / budget stretched countries

[mcsean2164] 08/2/2016 12:50

Still in and plan to hold.

Interesting....


Predicted decline of 1.5million bopd in off shore due lower in fills.

[sawadee3] 08/2/2016 12:29

Agreed. It's a flea bite of a shake.

Happy to gather up even more for the pot :-)

[investordave] 08/2/2016 12:29

Have many of you sold out today? Still holding tight but worried that my small profit is evaporating fast.

[spirito] 08/2/2016 11:48

Exactly - not much of a rogering

[hearts1] 08/2/2016 10:49

It's down 5% after a quick 50% rise.

[betelgeuse1] 08/2/2016 10:28

blimey taking a right rogering

[hearts1] 08/2/2016 10:20

Yes but no one knows where the oil price will be in 2 years.

[edmondj] 08/2/2016 10:10

The game is surely where things stand oil price wise, in roughly two years' time.

The imminent results, if not chart, may have little bearing on that.