Tullow Oil Share Discussion Threads

[warwick69] 05/2/2016 10:40

Crude going down and TLW going up and quickly

[betelgeuse1] 05/2/2016 10:35

240p comuing

[warwick69] 05/2/2016 10:29

Now 60% off erect lows that's not a dead cat that's a lion eating shorts !"!!

[qs99] 05/2/2016 10:22

agreed, very strong move upwards...

[warwick69] 05/2/2016 10:22

This is diverging away from oil I guess the pressure on the shorts is greater now the higher we rise? Moves in oil will only accelerate the break out here £2 is looking like a very easy target now

[qs99] 05/2/2016 10:16

took the old adage of "when everyone is selling" to heart and tucked in with help of sane posts above....not without its risks, but with $ weakening if Fed are not going to tighten as quickly then IMO this is new news this week and the last few days is the start of the reaction to that DYOR etc but think commodities on the back of that have further to go, let's see....risky but momentum with the likes of TLW and GLEN at the moment for instance...

[sawadee3] 05/2/2016 10:11

Indeed holmess ;-)

The louder they shouted...the more i bought, i find the "brigade" quite useful :-)

Easiest double your money ever :-)

[holmess] 05/2/2016 10:08

The best bit about the share price going up is no posts from the 'short it oils going to 50c brigade' ;)

[hearts1] 05/2/2016 10:07

Strong buying into results next week.Whilst tough market I think they will show TLW controlling capital and opex and will be market positive.

[sawadee3] 05/2/2016 10:02

Market hungry for value.

Easy game...easy money :-)

Happy days chaps :-)

[warwick69] 05/2/2016 09:59

What on earth are the shorts going to do now

[qs99] 05/2/2016 09:46

still moving ahead very nicely IMO....through £2 shortly if this carries on DYOR etc,.....thanks for all those posting as encouraged me in!

[spirito] 05/2/2016 09:01

Very resilient

[betelgeuse1] 05/2/2016 06:50

Why oil could surge to $85 by year-end: Analyst
Sofia Pitt | @sofia_pitt

Depressed oil prices are likely to rally in the second half of the year —perhaps as high as $85 per barrel, energy analyst Michael Rothman said Monday. That said, he added any move higher won't be a result of coordinated production cuts.

West Texas Intermediate crude tumbled around 5 percent in late morning trade to under $32 per barrel, as hopes for a deal among OPEC countries and Russia to reduce output dwindled.


An output cut "was never going to happen, the notion that [OPEC and Russia] would agree to reduce their output and help support prices was a ndisableder," said Rothman, founder and president of the Cornerstone Analytics research firm.

‹
Rusted out "pump-jacks" in the oil town of Luling, Texas.
Oil may hit bottom—this just isn't it: Analyst
Workers drill at the Saudi Aramco oil field complex facilities at Shaybah in the Rub' al Khali desert in Shaybah, Saudi Arabia. (File Photo).
How long can Saudi Arabia live with $30 oil?
›
While the bear case seems strong, "prices are not going to stay this low for an extended period of time," he said. Rothman believes there are plenty of factors setting up the other side of the oil trade.
"Most budgets for the OPEC countries can't be maintained at this level," he continued. "Even the Saudi budget is built on almost $100 price for breakeven, which is why they've been dipping into their reserves." So when will the reversal begin?

Rothman told CNBC's "Worldwide Exchange" that $85 per barrel crude is just a few months away. "We'll actually start to see it when we get past the winter. We'll see inventories being drawn down, which most people you're going to talk to aren't expecting," Rothman added.

"That's really the bottom line of where supply and demand meet," he said. "I expect that the sentiment is [then] going to shift."

[spirito] 05/2/2016 06:33

Concern is survival because of debt. If they can alleviate that via low cost production, the debt holders are likely to be more flexible if oil stays lower for longer than anticipated. What does debt add to their cost per barrel?

[mcsean2164] 05/2/2016 00:47

I have a feeling the FY might be good

"LONDON--Tullow Oil PLC (TLW.LN) has revamped its business to operate in a $25-a-barrel to $30-a-barrel oil-price environment given the continued fall in the price of crude, said the chief executive of the U.K.'s largest independent oil producer.

"Most people would have said last year that this whole oil-price collapse was a storm. In fact actually it's now utter reality," Aidan Heavey told The Wall Street Journal in an interview. "The storm has now passed...this is the reality."

Mr. Heavey said the company has stress-tested its balance sheet to operate under a $25-a-barrel scenario for the first half of the year and a $30-a-barrel scenario for the second half of the year.


It also plans to reduce its breakeven oil-production cost to less than $20 a barrel by the second half of the year. This compares with about $20 a barrel for its West African operations last year and $25 a barrel for its non-operated assets, he said.

Mr. Heavey said Tullow was one of the first companies to start cutting costs and adapting its business to a lower oil-price environment in 2014. It put in place hedges to cover the cost of its projects that are beginning to bear fruit just as it finishes its major capital projects. It has hedged 52% of this year's forecast oil production at $75 a barrel compared with a benchmark crude-oil price that is hovering around $30 a barrel."


Heavey seems to be a total realist, he's prepared for worst case scenario. He's not optimistically deluded, in fact I think he's a bit pessimistic.

He'll be there selling tullow as it is and not talking pie in the sky. I like that, will the market like it? What price after FY?

[leoneobull] 04/2/2016 22:46

Will probably sell pre results and buy back in after

[hearts1] 04/2/2016 20:59

So that's a 50% rise in a couple of weeks, at which time we were told to sell as it was ' definitely ' going to 80p.That's in Jan/Feb which will be the worst months for oil stocks!Imagine a good month........Trade a % for the swings and keep a decent holding for a comfortable 100% within 18 months.

[lonrho] 04/2/2016 20:34

They get paid for loaning the shares and as long term holders they know they will buy back before they want to sell their shares.

[jovi1] 04/2/2016 19:36

just to clarify
this are the short and they come down in the last week buy approx 1%

Notice: We no longer track disclosures after they drop below 0.5%. It is possible that the manager still holds a short position even if we are showing it as zero.


Fund manager

% short

Change

Date changed/created


Capital Fund Management SA 0.67% ↓ -0.05% 2015-12-23
GLG Partners LP 0.75% ↑ 0.10% 2016-01-27
Lansdowne Partners (UK) LLP 2.51% 2014-07-01
Man Investments Ltd 0.68% ↓ -0.16% 2016-01-28
ODEY ASSET MANAGEMENT LLP 3.90% ↑ 0.04% 2016-02-01
Oxford Asset Management 0.70% ↑ 0.02% 2016-01-14

Total 9.21%

strangely most position are only few months old landsowne been the exeption

one think i dont understand is why anyone lend share in orther for someone else to short destroing the value of company and then hand back to you.
if anyone can explain i would love to know

[treeshake] 04/2/2016 18:43

Surely these shorts are from way up from here and no doubt they have been hedging them while all this uncertainty remains .......would make common sense in my book

[nicebut] 04/2/2016 18:07

Jovi,

Yes you are right- I apologise..Be interesting to see what ,if anything happens over the next few weeks.

It is Lansdown that has been short 2.51% for some time.

[jovi1] 04/2/2016 17:27

nice not sure you are right.
oday start to short this on the 24-11-15 and until 1st december they had only o.06% approx that made the rest in december and january and little top up in february
they are only on profit untill the 7th december where tlw trade at max of 188. after that point tlw has beed consistently below today closing price.
the ammount short untill the 7 december was less than 1% all the rest (2.9%) are at current price at loss.
clearly there are other shorter that still in profit but with exeption of 2.7% they are all close to even.