Tullow Oil Share Discussion Threads

[jovi1] 08/2/2016 10:07

does not look too good today but I take the approach in in doubt buy some more
lot of contradicting news lately but I see this as a better stage than all bad news.
expectation on the result are so low that would not take much to beat them or so we hope.
good luck

[hearts1] 08/2/2016 08:11

$600m profit, not bad where many are making a loss.

[leoneobull] 08/2/2016 07:18

Well the Dow finished down 230 pts Fri and crude down 2% so up 1% takes us back to where we were Thursday?

[holmess] 08/2/2016 07:02

Ftse futs +30, Brent +1.1% Could well see the share price near 200p today

[mcsean2164] 07/2/2016 22:25

But Nomura warned that meaningful deleveraging will require further cost reduction and asset sales, saying that with net debt at 5-6 times its earnings that debt covenants could come under pressure.

Good that Tullow say, "Active portfolio management is a key part of our strategy."

Bob Janjuah has been predicting catastrophe for a long time now, I long a lot of opportunity listening to him.

[gersemi] 07/2/2016 20:50

Going long or short in the oil futures market is rather different from buying or selling shares in an oil company. The former is a bet on the future direction of the oil price, the latter is ownership of a stake in an oil company.

I hold shares here and in IAE because I believe both are takeover candidates. Valuations of many oil companies are at distressed levels and that means cheap reserves and even cheaper P50 to P10 resources. The takeover party should begin sooner rather than later before oil prices start to recover end 2016-start 2017

Now is the time to buy but only those with quality reserves and at the back-end of the capex cycle

[mcsean2164] 07/2/2016 20:42

'Odey. Gotta respect him for holding out'

Since I don't share his opinion, I find it hard to respect it. I would respect it if he went short at £10 but this is a dangerously low level to start shorting.

I am probably 80% bullish, the bearish side would go, "What does Odey know that I don't?". Nothing it appears and all signals from Tull are good. Not long to the 10th


"When my information changes, I alter my conclusions. What do you do, sir?". Maybe Odey should listen to Keynes?

[donmasters] 07/2/2016 19:09

20 January 2016
Genel Energy plc - Update

Resilience in a Low Oil Price Environment

-- The Company's producing oil assets in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq ('KRI') benefit from low production costs, which are forecast at less than $2/bbl in 2016.

-- The Company's producing oil assets deliver a cash breakeven at a Brent oil price of c.$20/bbl in 2016.

-- Cash balances of $455 million at end 2015 and a 2019 maturity on the Company's bond provide a robust basis from which to navigate a period of low oil prices.

-------------------------------------

GENL Broker Forecasts (Current price 116p)

Canaccord Genuity - 3/2/2016 - Reiterates Speculative buy - Target 350.00p

Barclays Capital - 2/2/2016 - Reiterates Overweight - Target 350.00

[leoneobull] 07/2/2016 19:05

Because he has 36m so if he is wrong it will significantly impact the application. Conversely if you are wrong, 1000 shares matter zero :-)

[panic investor] 07/2/2016 11:19

I agree with Spirito.

When Odey decides to go long .....well just imagine....

[leoneobull] 06/2/2016 23:32

Odey. Gotta respect him for holding outhttp://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/business/industries/banking/article4684237.eceWonder how long he will short tlw?

[spirito] 06/2/2016 19:29

You will double your money and maybe a lot more if you can stand the volatility.

[careful] 06/2/2016 16:11

how to build a million £ portfolio?
simple.
first get £1bn then listen to their advice.

[mcsean2164] 06/2/2016 13:35

Agree, it's interesting too talk about US inventory not being as high since 1930. I expect global consumption was slightly less back in 1930...

[hearts1] 06/2/2016 12:55

Given its only really breached 200p sub $40 apart from when there was lending concerns I'd say he's taken quite a risky play. Given 50% of production hedged at $76 and significant cash flow starting from TEN , TLW is solid in 2016.

[nicebut] 06/2/2016 12:50

Lansdowne were short 2.51% from 7th july `14...Sept `14 price drops from c£9 end of June `14- so I think we can assume they are well in the money until the price gets back up to around £8.

I only have the sheets for 10th Nov `15 and then 12th Jan `16....During that time Odey went from zero (or less than .5%) to 3.63% on 12th Jan. The price was never really higher than 220....so Odey short from prices around 220-200 and below more recently.

On 10th Nov `15 there was only 4.4% short- share price 230- 211
On 12th Jan `16 there was 8.36% short share price 131- 122
On 4th Feb `16 there was 9.5% short share price 183- 173

[hearts1] 06/2/2016 12:40

NB,I've seen the article, looks like he has taken from them and TLW two from mining and oil sector who have high debt. I don't think it's an operation play, more oil price and global growth concerns.I have requested his latest monthly bulletin to see if there's anything there.His fund has many plays, as long as he's net up he does fine, lets be honest, if any of us think Brent will be below $40 next year we wouldn't be long.

[holmess] 06/2/2016 12:13

His cronies are on this very BB.

[nicebut] 06/2/2016 12:10

Hearts,

I have a few FCA short position updates from Oct and Nov and they didn`t figure on it....as Jovi said earlier in the week, they are short from around these levels or just above and below...I`ll have a closer look later...

There`s an article on Crispin Odey in the Times today- About his short on Anglo- Which has gone against him....hopefully this will too!! Sorry can`t post.

[careful] 06/2/2016 11:58

Odey is a clown.
He gets burned more often than toast.
I see he was hugely short on Home retail recently thinking that Sbry would walk away.

[hearts1] 06/2/2016 11:25

It seems Odey doesn't share the same view, perhaps they see new lows in oil prices before they rebound later in the year. However with the fall to 117p in January you would have thought they would have taken some profit?I'm not sure when they started to short the stock, 300p plus ?

[holmess] 06/2/2016 09:25

Excellent - thanks Gersemi Tide has turned - bashers and trolls on the Bb will soon move on now ;)