Tullow Oil Share Discussion Threads

[billy_buffin] 23/3/2023 14:12

Ruto to meet Von der Leyen and Michel during high-stakes European tour
Breaking news published on 23/03/23 at 13:15 (GMT+1) - The Kenyan president will spend a busy four days in Europe next week. Several high-level meetings and signatures are expected.
Africa intel 23rd

[maywillow] 23/3/2023 12:37

Https://invezz.com/news/2023/03/23/tullow-share-price-hammered-by-lackluster-crude-oil-trends/

[crazi] 23/3/2023 10:25

Sold out for breakeven... these corporate Brokers are strangling the share price even when the oil price rises. Good luck guys.

[bones698] 22/3/2023 18:30

Seems to happen too often with heavily indebted companies that they ha e a chance to greatly reduce the debt but miss the boat due to poor management and decision making ,at the end of the day it's that that will bankrupt the company before most other things ,remember gkp .
By now production rates ,drop off, pump installation etc should all be very accurate and easily montoores and achieved so income can be calculated pretty accurately . Seems someone has dropped the ball not paying off a huge chunk off the debt with oil prices so high recently.

Now it's falling due to recession fears that are not going to go away anytime soon that ship has sailed and I can see them needing to sell another major asset in the not to distant future to reduce the debt and at a silly discount to what it's actually worth .


Don't trust the management here they haven't done a good job but happy to pay themselves handsomely for poor performance like many companies these days .

[spacedust] 22/3/2023 16:19

I didn't I actually wrote completely different words.

Anyway keep watching. I know you find it hard to believe but the oil price is down yet tallow share price is up.

Proves my point completely

[mcsean2164] 22/3/2023 15:59

No need to say it again.

[spacedust] 22/3/2023 13:48

You want me to give the truth and whole truth and nothing but the truth a rest????

Sure all you have to do is ignore. But just watch and see it happen and what I've stated will happen no matter what

[mcsean2164] 22/3/2023 13:35

spacedust,

can you give it a rest?

[mcsean2164] 21/3/2023 18:24

Thanks xxjnr,

That's what I feared. Buying at such a discount with the huge interest would be great for tullow but expect they are doing nothing of the sort, content to pay out the huge interest every year. It's incredible to think this is where we are and there's been no dividend for years...

[xxnjr] 21/3/2023 17:38

Xxjnr, Do you know if tullow are buying their debt on the bond market?

Have no idea MCS as no access to that kind of info. But from what was said yesterday; I'd say the answer is No

Maybe one day if they have a spare $100m, $200m or whatever TLW will RNS a Cash Tender Offer for one, or other, or both classes of their Bonds? On the call our CFO did suggest there are "several levers" at their disposal; but no colour on what they might be.

[spacedust] 21/3/2023 15:53

Even if we get into trillions of dollars in debt the share price is rising no matter what. Sp is all that matters. Bought at 28p will sell 40p plus for no reason and make 50% return within couple of months

[alfiex] 21/3/2023 15:35

Tullow seem confident that debt not a problem and company on track. Probably need another 6-12 months to get some value back

[spacedust] 21/3/2023 14:31

Watch and see it happen

[spacedust] 21/3/2023 14:07

Doesn't make any differnce if they do or don't or pile in more debt and dig and find no oil but just dog poo.

Sp is rising over 30p this month and then towards 40p for no reason and there's not a soul on earth who can stop it. You need to understand that stocks don't work always on fundamentals but on pure sentiment. Everything else is secondary.

[mcsean2164] 21/3/2023 13:54

Xxjnr,

Do you know if tullow are buying their debt on the bond market?

[spacedust] 21/3/2023 10:52

Results debts none of this matters. Sentiment alone is all that's required. We could dig and find dog poo.just watch and sit back relax and watch the share price rise above 30p for no reason. Then onto 40p for nonreason

[yellowstoneadvisory] 21/3/2023 10:17

A comprehensive run through of the FY 22 results from Rahul Dhir CEO and Richard Miller CFO yesterday at the Yellowstone Advisory webinar. If you missed it the recording is available here

Https://youtu.be/hrMOPKckeo4

[spacedust] 21/3/2023 09:21

None of this matters. Sp will be 30p plus for no reason this month

[xxnjr] 20/3/2023 22:10

Bond market not convinced as the 2025 $800m 7%'s seem to have today closed at a 33 month low of 59.4% i.e now lower than when Rahul assumed control.

[xxnjr] 20/3/2023 21:33

"Management must take the pain too; pay rises share options perks should be frozen and all costs cut to the bone. This is the reality and the price of failure, I feel we must only reward in good times."

Well said SS.

I guess that is why I sent my q's in. It was the fact that Rahul is hoovering up $m's in basic salary + 2X, or 3X more on top, without actually having solved many of the issues. Not to mention he's also made some serious errors of judgement on the way. Sure pay Rahul basic salary. But the 2X on top simply isn't merited. If we get out of this mess and the company survives and the share price gets back to £2.00 then OK let's give Rahul a massive bonus.

[subsurface] 20/3/2023 20:28

In my own little way did try to tell Rahul.
12th September 2020
Dear Mr Dhir,
First let me welcome you to Tullow Oil . you have taken up the position at a very difficult time and unprecedented market conditions ,so let me wish you every success in your new post.
The paradigm has changed for Tullow, we are no longer in an expansion mode but in a survival mode Previous management failure and poor risk management have brought us to the situation we face today. Though we can give credit for the hedge policy.
A good company has been brought to its knees along with its reputation.
We have before us a double headed monster debt and the fact that our Ghana gas export flow can be curtailed at a whim with devastating effect on our cash flow with little we can do about it.
I feel these are the problems that we need to address. Name plate capacity for our two FPSO,s targeted and associated gas export assured ,at full production a gas contract .or take or pay ?
We cannot run a business begging the government to take Gas, how can we invest with confidence?
Previous management failed to look at full cycle and thought they could give the gas free and put the problem on to Ghana Gas that has proved a failed Strategy.
Raising Cash
Being able to sell or not sell assets if we don’t get what we want is a luxury, but one we cannot afford attitude needs to change this is the price we pay for failure. We should be happy with what we can get in these difficult times until the debt reaches manageable levels and the company survival is assured.
Management must take the pain too pay rises share options perks should be frozen and all costs cut to the bone. This is the reality and the price of failure, I feel we must only reward in good times.
Aiden used to say Tullow is for the long term! The long term shareholders have been decimated over many years.
These are my thoughts on how to start to restore confidence and save Tullow before it is too late.
.I sincerely hope the next time I write it will be to congratulate you on a job well done.
Yours Sincerely

[badger36] 20/3/2023 15:19

What of the Geologists. Those clowns have nothing but water and sulphur. Have they been ousted ?

[xxnjr] 20/3/2023 14:37

Suspect Rahul underestimated how bad things were here before he took the job. Rahul has proven he's very good at running an operating company. But he doesn't seem to have a plan for escaping the debt other than hoping the OP will be $100/bbl for eternity.

Much of todays talk was just waffle about future catalysts that may not happen.

Kenya no one believes it, including the partners (Total and Africa Oil).

$40m contingent payments on asset sales unlikely to be received in my view as some well results disappointing and production likely to remain below thresholds.

TEN Plan of Development if it happens will be smaller than envisioned (whatever the vision is).

If OP remains low EBITDAX ratios will shoot back up again and debt may not reduce.

At least he's finally admitted they aren't going to spend any money on Guyana.

Rahul has lost credibility for previously projecting TEN could produce at 50K. The CNE debacle. etc etc. Felt he was a bit detached from reality today

Whilst he has purchased a small number of shares, the 9m deferred on appointment + 2m TIP shares since, are mainly coming out of our pockets. Agree with the line of questioning on the call. "Why don't the directors buy shares in the company?".....Guess they don't believe in their own projections and future maybe catalysts.

[mcsean2164] 20/3/2023 14:05

It's disappointing that no institutional investors have tried to oust Rahul. I honestly don't know if we're better of with or without him but the fact that there are no activist investors is really disappointing. Surely he's at least somewhat engaged with all his shares. The mind boggles.