Tullow Oil Share Discussion Threads

[xxnjr] 23/6/2025 08:29:10

Someone (TLW?,KOS?,GNPC?) got lucky. TEN had an offload last week at $77.20 Brent 5 day ave. Probably was TLW as 2 previous went to GNPC, then KOS. JUB will finish an offload today at whatever the 5 day ave OP is this week - who get's the cargo?... impossible to say. Wait 4 months for Petrocom to publish the data!

[subsurface] 23/6/2025 01:53:27

Thankfully Tullows Oil does not pass through the straight but we stand ready to benefit from any Oil price rise.Perhaps it adds worth to the reserves also as Africa Oil will be in increased demand.

The Noble Venturer drillship is currently engaged in a drilling program for Tullow Oil in Ghana, with operations focused on the Jubilee field. The program, which began in May 2025, includes drilling two Jubilee wells, one producer and one injector, with production expected to come online in the third quarter of 2025.

Tullows accounting is weighted to the front end of the year I remember reading.

[wellbutpoor] 22/6/2025 18:51:38

Decision on straight of hormuz later tonight

[wodahsnoom] 22/6/2025 17:42:26

No problem, I think you know you didn't confuse me, but perhaps others................

[xxnjr] 22/6/2025 17:02:01

Agreed - OP and cratering production at Jubilee affect both. KOS has a lot of debt $2.9bn although the repayment profile stretches out to 2031 and doesn't get burdensome until about 2028 (imo). It's not in the last chance saloon, yet. Tullow may well be. Time will tell. Sorry I confused you with gross debt - not my intention at all!

[wodahsnoom] 22/6/2025 14:57:48

Switching from net debt (which is by far the quoted debt figure) to Gross Debt does confuse the picture which is undoubtedly the intention. There is no reason to think that Tlw will not be close to its target net debt of $1 billion by year end. Good luck with your short! Timing is everything........Btw WBP/Xxnjr Op affects all oilers , not just Tullow - even Kosmos Energy :)

[wellbutpoor] 22/6/2025 13:37:56

SP could run into the early 20's with a decent OP spike

But then it's a dead cert shorting opportunity going forward

[xxnjr] 22/6/2025 12:05:20

Wodahs,

FWIW AFAICS......! Post maintenance shutdown restart - Jubilee seems only to be producing in the low 60's. Probably somewhere in the 61 - 64 Kbopd range. Or about 40,000 bopd less than Rahul's projections. As a result there were only 5 gross Jubilee cargos in 2Q at an ave 5 day Brent $66.10 vs 7 cargos in 1Q at an ave 5 day Brent of $76.61. As we know Jubilee cargos are nominated either TLW, KOS, GNPC. 3 of 7 in 1Q were TLW. TLW may only get 2 of 5 in 2Q? There is a lot less revenue coming in now. The company was FCF negative in 1Q. And will likely be FCF negative in 2Q. Net Debt 24FY was $1.45bn. Net Debt 25-1Q increased to $1.6bn. Net Debt 25-2Q could be as high as $1.7bn? If thats the case net debt could still be $1.4bn post $300m Gabon cash???

For the record AIUI gross debt now is

2026 Bond $1,285m (10.25%)
Glencore $400m (15.8%)
SSRCF $150m (???%)
Total $1,835m

Post Gabon gross debt $1,535m

Who knows what the OP will be in 25-2H? But unless TLW can hedge substantially all of 2026/7/8/9 production at $70, or higher..... How on earth can the business generate sufficient cashflow to refinance the debt? Is that not a reasonable concern?

[wodahsnoom] 22/6/2025 08:21:34

Their debt target is $1billion - they be close to it when sale proceeds are received so explain the detail and need for a D4E

[wellbutpoor] 21/6/2025 10:04:54

D4E lies ahead

[wodahsnoom] 20/6/2025 14:01:30

Wellbutpoor, most assets depreciate. All the "expert" de-rampers would have us believe that both Kosmos and Meren were the ones that walked away because somehow in the middle of talks they discovered Tlw had a "mountain of debt". Rubbish - there is a distinct possibility that Kosmos/Meren were looking to get a bargain ahead of refinancing when they thought Tlw was vulnerable. Maybe Tlw walked away both times................. Ok then, let's be having you :)

[kulvinder] 19/6/2025 19:27:04

Oil nearly about to touch 78 usd....so not all bad for tlw...

[goggin] 19/6/2025 09:55:21

GROKThere is no definitive evidence from the provided information that Meren Energy made a formal bid to acquire Tullow Oil. Instead, reports indicate that the two companies were engaged in discussions about a potential merger, which ultimately collapsed in June 2025. Sky News and other sources reported that talks about a tie-up were progressing as recently as early June 2025 but were terminated for reasons that remain unclear. Analysts, such as Shore Capital's James Hosie, suggested that Tullow's ongoing debt refinancing plans, oil price volatility, and challenges in securing government and regulatory approvals in Ghana may have been obstacles to reaching an agreement.Meren Energy, formerly Africa Oil Corp, has a market capitalization of approximately £980 million and had announced plans to spend up to $500 million on acquiring producing assets in Africa, which could have included interest in Tullow's West African assets. However, the discussions appear to have been focused on a merger rather than a straightforward acquisition bid.If you're looking for more specific details or want me to search for additional information, let me know!

[farrugia] 19/6/2025 08:44:19

something doesn't tally about this supposed bid interest. First neither company ever announced it, second the stock price of Meren Energy never went down in expectation of a bid for Tullow.

[hubshank] 19/6/2025 07:04:41

If it's in the news, it's already history and things have moved on!

[wellbutpoor] 19/6/2025 07:01:13

Moon - absolutely no doubt that TLW will find the road ahead very difficult.

Meren JV could have been their last chance of some autonomy.

It's likely they'll be swallowed up at low cost or capitulate completely before the 2026 refinancing IMHO.

Feels like this is now a depreciating asset.

Going forward the 21/26 bond price will indicate what the market thinks.

[levinson1] 19/6/2025 06:30:17

Maybe Tullow asked for too much. Would t be surprised if these talks with Merren come back on

[wodahsnoom] 18/6/2025 22:29:19

"probably found the debts to scary and didn't want them ok their books" - they must be the only ones that didn't know what the Tlw debt is before they entered talks. If that's the case, pretty poor management at Meren :):)

[spirito] 18/6/2025 20:37:05

Missed the top but got out at 18.49

[bones698] 18/6/2025 19:20:57

Yup caught a few out and must be a reason meten walked away .probably found the debts to scary and didn't want them ok their books . This will now fall back after the spike back to where it was . Scary times ahead here . There is usually a very good reason someone walks away

[theblackbaron] 18/6/2025 17:29:26

Never pushed further than 62p