Tullow Oil Share Discussion Threads

[nobull] 26/7/2024 15:44

Hopefully our leverage ratio will be down to 1x by 31 12 24.

Headwinds we face could be $320m added to net debt for loss of Ghana Branch profits remittances case (result due H2)(the case has no merit whatsoever bla bla - they all say that don't they, otherwise they have lost the case before it has even been started, never mind adjudicated, right?) and $242m write-off for Kenya project (result due by 31 12 24, punishment for failing to demonstrate the project is financeable in our hands, a project that is 8 squillion miles from where the customers are, requiring billions to be raised to build a pipeline to reach them), a write-off of past exploration and development costs, 'adding' a further minus $242m to our already negative equity quantity of minus $360m, meaning we have to wait a few years before we have any stake in anything after the lenders have been satisfied. Under water here from 35.2p or thereabouts. And the first headwind probably affects the outcome of whether we get clobbered by the second. A third headwind would be falling oil prices if we had to face that before the negative equity problem is sorted. I can see why IC had us as a "sell". Hopefully, they, and the shorters, are wrong.

[xxnjr] 25/7/2024 09:03

Judging by past events 1H results will tell us all is apparently rosy in garden of Rahul. Doubt if, at this stage, the conservative FCF forecast is under threat. May be difficult to keep up appearances as we head into 2025.

[up just a little bit] 25/7/2024 08:48

But those of us who bought in the 20's are in the money and whilst each day ticks by the debt reduces and the money rolls in. Nice.

[mccracken227] 25/7/2024 08:35

Trouble with Kenya is same as Tullow itself, going nowhere. Oil found 12 years ago and Tullow been in decline since. Even the directors who bought shares are in the red

[mano300] 24/7/2024 08:48

Is this company listed on the FTSE250???

[subsurface] 24/7/2024 00:10

Its about time Rahul was made accountable by the institutional shareholders.
Well said Wodahsnoom.
Better production numbers from TEN.? would help.

[up just a little bit] 23/7/2024 23:56

They are your opinions not facts. Love to hear some more from you.

[wodahsnoom] 23/7/2024 17:44

It seems there are only two possible catalysts to boosting the share price in 2024 (assuming no dramatic moves on the OP).

1. An unexpected profitable H1 24 - it would be a first granted, but not beyond the bounds of possibility. Surely there are only so many write-downs/impairments that a now small O&G company can make year after year. We keep getting told what an economic field Jubilee is but yet never get a sustainable production increase. Only unrelenting financial losses - maybe 2024 will be different. If it isn't I want to know why.

2. Tax arbitration case - one of these is due to be concluded in H2 and of course if it goes against Tlw then batten down the hatches. If the result is favourable than I fear it might be a temporary move north.

Keeping guidance of FCF in tact is all well and good for bondholders.
Huge tax bills is all well and good for the Ghanain Government.
Free shares allocated is all well and good for the management.
Delivery on localisation is all well and good for suppliers.
Its about time Rahul was made accountable by the institutional shareholders

If anyone has any other realistic possible positives for 2024 I'd love to hear them......

[up just a little bit] 22/7/2024 23:33

Am already on my second trade. Not holding out for what I made on the first one that was quite fantastic but a modest return would be nice.

[badger36] 22/7/2024 18:06

You won't be first to buy

[up just a little bit] 22/7/2024 15:56

Just bought 5 pairs for the Maldives.

[badger36] 22/7/2024 15:19

Money for shorts you mean

[up just a little bit] 20/7/2024 09:57

Waldron, thanks for those posts. There is money to be made here!

[waldron] 19/7/2024 20:28

Close
32.06

[waldron] 19/7/2024 20:25

Targets Six months: 36.92 One year: 42.05

Supports Support1: 24.50 Support2: 20.38

Resistances Resistance1: 31.61 Resistance2: 36.00

[up just a little bit] 19/7/2024 12:56

Depends what oil price was used for the calculations.

[xxnjr] 19/7/2024 12:29

Clearly operating cashflow will be lower than anticipated but wouldn't surprise if they maintained, or narrowed the FCF guidance towards mid to top end? DECOM is budgeted at $70m but you never know Rahul may just cancel the operated DECOM this year!

[xxnjr] 19/7/2024 12:22

Would have thought it may be related to a less than perfect correlation between their understanding of the reservoir model and what was actually found. Notwithstanding the usual mitigating PR nonsense such as "the net pay etc was similar to pre-drill modelling"; or whatever the AGM statement spin was.

Easy to say it with the benefit of hindsight but perhaps would have been an idea to update the 4D seismic before drilling 20 wells, rather than after?.....

[up just a little bit] 19/7/2024 11:35

Still meets guidance

[subsurface] 19/7/2024 11:31

Tullow completed the recent drilling programe in Ghana approx 6 months ahead of schedule only problem is they are not delivering the production required.
perhaps some questions need to be raised.
How did they accomplish it,?is this a Tullow well design,?how good is the drilling contractor?.
The rig has moved to Equatorial Guinea . interesting to see how they get on.

[xxnjr] 19/7/2024 10:48

Seems like Wissam Al-Monthiry has now checked out of Tullow as his LinkedIn profile is no longer current. Press releases out of Ghana now signed by Jean-Medard Madama (acting as). Production in Ghana. Seemingly no change, i.e. still at, or below 90K, judging by latest offload the other day despite "optimisations" that has been underway this year.

[xxnjr] 19/7/2024 09:50

Never understood the asset swap with Perenco. But since the company has failed to explain the "upside" that is not our fault! Apparently it was "neutral". The only issue I have is that the blocks we gave up are more to the north and close to Hylia, where Perenco unearthed a highly promising discovery and play fairway in new horizons. Whereas TLW increased exposure to blocks in the south where the operator (Perenco) now seems to be applying the brakes. "A decision was made to perform a long term test (LTT) on Wamba prior to making a full development decision. The LTT duration was originally planned to be to end 2023. However, a longer term development concept has not been firmed up and the current plan is to extend the production of Wamba (with the LTT development) to end 2024 until a full development concept has been selected."

And we ended paying for 57.5% of the well costs on the Akoum B duster that was drilling when the deal was announced, despite the reduced equity (40%) post deal and effective date of transaction.

And then the operator (Perenco) accidentally torched the Simba platform in the south where 2 ILX wells were due to have been drilled this year!

[up just a little bit] 18/7/2024 10:33

An excellent article re the commitment of the Gabon government. "Gabon is making great strides towards monetizing resources at both mature and emerging assets. The GOC has been at the forefront of this. By prioritizing near-field development and supporting exploration campaigns offshore, the country is well on track to increase production"