Tullow Oil Share Discussion Threads

[volsung] 04/2/2016 12:01

Needs to push past 180p soon or the shorters will pounce. No position atm

[maloneyt] 04/2/2016 10:47

If BP and Shell results are anything to go by, then lets hope that TLW can do better

[hearts1] 04/2/2016 10:34

Holding up quite well, and new recent high.Looks like we need Brent $36 plus to break 1.80. Results out soon may push it that way if cost savings are good and TEN is all on track.

[sawadee3] 04/2/2016 10:25

When the Yanks awake they should continue to pull us higher this afternoon :-)

[hectorp] 04/2/2016 10:25

Well, the bull case for commodities is they were oversold, but, world trade must be drifting a bit, so we need less commodity. Balancing this is the round of currency devaluations which are positive for commodity.
I sense that the best way to play this is in gold, rather than crude plays.
But I've said that for years. Maybe now is that time, however.

[cestnous] 04/2/2016 10:21

Link not going to right place Lee

[leecoyote] 04/2/2016 10:15

hxxp://www.alignresearch.co.uk/gold/the-bull-case-for-commodities-is-stronger-than-ever/

[fsawatcher] 04/2/2016 10:15

last time tullow tested 170's Odey added to their short position.

they were up to around 3.95%.

If they don't add more weight to their short over next day or so, then could be a sign that they are feeling less confident.

That's a very large bit of exposure which they could get stripped alive on if surprise opec cut comes and turns market upside down.

so many bear positions to torch

dollar no longer supported and looks wobbly. Its shorters key instrument in keeping oil price in check

[hectorp] 04/2/2016 10:13

There is a currency war. Japan, China , the US are caught up in it, and the US is more likely to let the Dollar slide, their problem being, that its the so called reserve curency! The so called petro currency, so it is hard to push the dollar down, never the less, I can see it happening. Commodities will also rally during any " competitive devaluations" as one currency after the other drops against each other and against " real things".
The FED have blinked, realising that they simply can not permit the dollar to remain out side of the world currency falls, with their negative real rates etc.
This suggests no more rate rises for the FED and possibly reversing their stupid decision of December. Indeed this is what the markets now are telling us they expect. So back to TLW and OIL - A rally in crude price due to currency movement, is going to mask the fact of oversupply. So any short rally caused by currency movement, should not be taken as evidence that oil has seen the floor.
I'd sell into any rallies in TLW until we are closer to the REAL floor in the price of crude IMHO ( Unless TLW is still a takeover target of course)
H>

[edmondj] 04/2/2016 08:50

As of yesterday, it is mainly a response to a surprise plunge in the dollar.

[betelgeuse1] 04/2/2016 08:49

brent on a surge

gonna to 240p next stop here lads

[hearts1] 04/2/2016 08:45

Hi NB, I think the shorts are a play on oil price and the debt pile of TLW.I don't think it's on any short term fundementals, TLW have already given guidance for 2015 and are one of the best hedged companies for 2016, add to that TEN starting mid year.But if oil price stays low then TLW will struggle with debt.

[betelgeuse1] 04/2/2016 08:43

brent on a surge

[betelgeuse1] 04/2/2016 08:41

SIA going nuts also

[betelgeuse1] 04/2/2016 08:39

Into orbit!!

[cestnous] 04/2/2016 08:38

I remember a couple of years ago when the great vampire sid was calling peak oil and forecasting 400 dollars a barrel!

[nicebut] 04/2/2016 08:34

Hearts,

Its interesting that the total short is roughly same as couple of weeks ago...Only .2 in it. At a quick add up...

[betelgeuse1] 04/2/2016 08:29

all the oily charts on new recent highs,that tells me its beginning of a new trend

[volsung] 04/2/2016 08:27

Out with a nice profit however will probably regret it. Should just be grateful to the share gods :)

[betelgeuse1] 04/2/2016 08:26

SIA also new recent high, come on Soco and Tullow and PMO and ENQ and RDSB

[betelgeuse1] 04/2/2016 08:24

240p next stop i feel

[hearts1] 04/2/2016 08:23

Sold the trading ones again. Want to see us break 176.

[betelgeuse1] 04/2/2016 08:20

going way way higher here