Gresham House Share Discussion Threads

[chrisdgb] 14/12/2009 09:12

wonder if we will get comment from the company on the Hallin takeover...??

[topvest] 12/12/2009 14:35

It's a shame Gresham House didn't stick with private equity and share investments, rather than getting sucked into poor quality real estate. The HMS gain (over £8m) versus negligible cost (less than £40k) is eye watering.

Gresham is tempting now that they have more cash, but I'm still concerned about the property assets. 800k square feet and it's nearly all empty! Valued at £45m (top of the market, and including capex), but now at £25m. They have also lost more tennants. Rental income was £2m annualised, but is now likely to be only £1m or so. Given they have had these estates for such a long time, it is not impressive at all. On a rental income basis, these estates could be revalued down again at the year-end, potentially quite substantially (i.e. going against the trend, because of lease expiries).

The upside is selling the property for alternative use.

So, again for me it comes back to Gresham being good at stock investment over the years, but very poor at selecting good property assets.

[chrisdgb] 11/12/2009 15:18

someone just paid 345p for stock....

[chrisdgb] 11/12/2009 09:25

Probably should be over 400p now..

[taylor20] 11/12/2009 09:25

Nice, what with the winding up of WII, and now the offer for HMS, and the renegotiation of the loans, things looking pretty good for returning lots of cash to shareholders.

Shame Selftrade did not fill my order (when the price was 250) for a limit of £3.

[chrisdgb] 11/12/2009 09:22

sharpshare are you still looking at these..??

[loobrush] 19/9/2009 23:20

well we will see

[topvest] 19/9/2009 08:49

No, I don't agree. Property portfolio looks sunk if the recent property share price boom is a false dawn. It doesn't generate any income and its running cost is enormous. Ok, if you are cash rich and can develop the sites, but not ideal if you are loaded with debt and a few illiquid investments.

[loobrush] 18/9/2009 21:43

I dont agree with all these negative posts, nor does some other more wise investors who can see the value hereand are investing, up 45% in a couple of weeks. If you read their rns's the intention over the next few years is to realise all their investments to cash which in my view could be as much as £15.00 per share.
They have now employed a professional chief execuive to do this.
with the stock market going up they will sell their holdings at the apprpriate time foro substantially more than last company asset valuation.
In addition to this most of their property is valued at todays values whereas if you read, they are applying and think they will be granted, planning permission which will greatly increase their property values.THIS WITH RISING COMMERCIAL PROPERTY VALUES WILL PROVIDE A HUGE UPSIDE TO THE COMPANY VALUE.
All in all the company consists of undevoloped property and stocks which will rise in value , like its own mini stock market, its a a raging buy.

[topvest] 12/9/2009 18:51

Interims look fairly poor on the property side. The quality of their property book is a tad questionable and way too leveraged, given the lack of revenue generated.

[topvest] 22/8/2009 17:15

Watching with interest, but not tempted to buy at the moment. Property assets look a bit under the water to me. Maybe they should have stuck with equity investments!!

[bisiboy] 22/8/2009 11:41

i dont know but i am a frustrated holder
it does give you confidence what the banks have agreed to, they really
need to get rid of some of their sites and this breathing space should take some of the pressure off.
kicking myself for not taking what would have been a very sizable profit at 800p+

[cambium] 21/8/2009 14:38

where to from here?

[topvest] 30/4/2009 21:17

Well all fairly grim reading for Gresham. The wheels on the oldest listed company are almost falling off!

[sxhart10] 30/4/2009 14:19

I would expect the shares to trade at a discount to NAV but 35% look too high to me.

It sounds like the new board are getting a grip of the vancancy/cost/rents problems which should generate a feed a positive news through the coming year.

Would you folks expect Evolution to issue a recommendation on the back of todays report?

[ch3riton] 18/4/2009 11:32

Something better in the wind here at last. But I can't see what it is. Any ideas?

[topvest] 17/2/2009 21:35

Well this company looks like its been caught with short term debt at the wrong time. Bit of a shame given it's the oldest listed company on the stock market. I will watch with interest.

[pugugly] 16/2/2009 13:05

not manu:> Thanks for that. I have to crunch th enumbers more on the properties I think you have identified the major problem. Nearly all of the properties seem to be in secondary or tertiary positions.

The list of occupants also reads like of industries likely to suffer badly from the economic downturn.

[not manu] 14/2/2009 23:17

Yeah, I've seen the enormous discount to historic NAV.

The share price really takes a tumble whenever there's a recession!
The properties would be far better within a larger company who could use their asset management expertise to better develop and let the properties.

Based on the RNS's since the interims, I've come up with a back of the envelope valuation.
Investments £6.8m see RNS dated 2/1/09 (£5.5m * 100/80)
Properties £23.2m (£35.7m * 65/100)
PPE £0.35m (£0.5m * 70/100)
Developments £3.0m (£6m * 50/100)
& Loans
Borrowings (£17.6m)
Net Current (£1.3m) see Interims - all other remaining headings.
Liabilities
NET ASSETS £14.45m, or roughly £3 per share.

The properties aren't prime quality.
I'm assuming small operating losses since the interims, obviously excluding the huge pending writedowns and no reduction in borrowings.

On a distressed sale basis. I'd cut the Properties by 15% and the Investments (especially HM) by 20%. This gives a estimated balance sheet value of £9m, or roughly £1.80 per share.

[bisiboy] 14/2/2009 19:25

it is a worry i am kicking myself on this i could see it coming and didnt sell
i hope that at least some of their sites are diserable even in this market
own to many to offload and at these levels hope so buyers will come in.
could be a good buy for someone like perloff, daejan or one of the volture funds

[pugugly] 13/2/2009 11:25

Anyone any view on what happens now if no PP for Dorking and the debt that has to be rolled over in June. I am not sure if they could sell teh Crown Jewels (Hallin) in the current market given the size of the holding without severely depressing the price.

Anyone done a distress sale valuation on the Trust?

[bisiboy] 06/7/2008 12:09

yes i should think the purchasers will be hoping not to get pp.
it depends how strict the planing criteria is but i am sure there will be wriggling
perhaps that is a reason for the appointment of new director of property.

these i think are a firm hold but probably not going anywhere soon

[ntv] 02/7/2008 23:01

bet there is a get out clause like in the last supposed property deal

[bisiboy] 02/7/2008 18:13

key thing for me is dorking property if the sale goes through
borrowings are gone.