Gresham House Share Discussion Threads

[skyship] 03/11/2011 14:29

Now on offer @ 337p.....that IMS can't come soon enough. Certainly hope it will reassure and turn this ship around. My average purchase price here is 380p....now my poorest performing stock and I went for an overweight allocation - ah well; I still rate them a great buy, others are less patient it would seem...

[skyship] 01/11/2011 14:53

Surprised to see them trading lower again. Made a small top-up @ 341p. That = 343p Inc. exps.

Cutting the payout to 425p and extending the date to 31st Dec'13, the GRY = 10.4%. Leaving the payout @ 450p the GRY = 13.4%.

Happy to hold and looking forward to the IMS in c.10days time...

[skyship] 30/10/2011 07:37

bisiboy - you may well be right. Interesting to note that if one assumes a 10% lower payout, ie 450p, then at the reduced share price of 365p the GRY now = 11.0%pa.

So content to hold.

Have you seen the similar voluntary liquidation play - LMS. Early days, but I'm estimating a GRY of more than 15% there - see the LMS thread; and also the SL thread.

[bisiboy] 29/10/2011 18:28

i think they will do well if they realise 500p by 2013
still hope you are right i have quite a few of them

[skyship] 20/10/2011 17:16

IMS update was 10th November last year - so only 3weeks away perhaps

[skyship] 25/8/2011 11:47

NAV slightly down to 475.8p as at 30th Jun'11; but since then they've sold the Hallin Marine HQ above book, adding 13p to the NAV, ie now 488.8p......and counting!

Chairman now talks of the payout "by the end of 2013". So adjusting to, say, 31st Oct'13 and remaining with a target of 500p, the GRY = 10.75% @ 400p.

[davebowler] 24/8/2011 12:51

Hope Memorial Holdings doesn't prove to be a dead loss!

[skyship] 24/8/2011 08:20

Today's Interims confirm very good progress from GHE:



Definitely one to buy on a dull day...

[topvest] 20/8/2011 21:01

It's long term record is very good, just a poor last 10 years. Unfortunate foray into tertiary property seems to have been its downfall.

[davebowler] 19/8/2011 16:17

Yes, its an interesting article;
A slightly different story is Gresham House (GHI) - a company I have a small share holding in myself...


In a statement slipped out just before Easter, Gresham said that "after careful deliberation, your Board will be recommending....the orderly realisation of the Group's assets over a period of approximately two years with a view to returning capital to shareholders thereafter".

Turkeys don't vote for Christmas and company directors do not typically vote for their own P45s. But that is what is happening here.

Gresham House invests in property and 'early stage' businesses. Its record is pretty shocking. At the end of 2000 the net asset value per share was 527.8p. Ten years later this had fallen to 476.9p.

Now the Board of Gresham House has finally thrown in the towel, citing a wish to close the large discount of the share price to the net asset value of the company, and the outlook for commercial property. "The present downturn in the commercial property market, coupled with the restricted availability of bank funding, will create a very flat market over the next few years", according to Chairman Tony Ebel.

Shareholders in Gresham House can, in theory, look forward to a cash distribution of at least 476.9p sometime in 2013, but first Gresham must liquidate its portfolio. The essential numbers are that it owns property valued at £28.6m, and a securities portfolio valued at £12.4m, a major part of which is the Kemnal Manor cemetery outside Bromley. As other London cemeteries run out of space this could handle hundreds of lucrative burials a year, and Gresham expects an uplift in its value when the first phase opens at the end of this year.

After net bank debt of £14.9m and a number of other minor items Gresham's net assets total £25.4m and the task of its managers over the next two years will be to realise this amount or more so that it can be paid back to long suffering shareholders.

Too many companies are allowed to stagger on with little hope of progress. Perhaps a few places in the Kemnal Manor cemetery could be set aside for other public companies with little left to offer.

[skyship] 16/8/2011 07:59

I like this one more and more, especially at this lower level. When you read in depth you will find that in the opinion of the Directors, there should be quite a bit of upside across the board. Part of that upside may well come from their 15% holding in the private Memorial Holdings – a new cemetery project in Bromley. Type Kemnal Manor Cemetery into Google and you will see why upside here is highly likely. You will also find this piece from MoneyWeek:



Personally I base my projections model on 500p by 30 Jun'13. This provides a Gross Redemption Yield of 15.44%pa from an offer price of 382p. Even if we get a far more straitened return of just 450p, the GRY would be 9.1%pa. Split the difference to 475p and the GRY = 12.3%.

[skyship] 12/8/2011 12:08

Having sold most of my position from 395p to 370p during the panic, I was lucky enough to reload most @ 358p. Will add a few more if more jitters send us back to those improbable lows again. The more I read this one, the better I like it...IMO 500p may well prove slightly conservative, but it is a good working target.

[loobrush] 28/7/2011 19:28

You may be correct that only the fees have been written off the staement is unclear,but it my view it does not state that otherwise it would have said 'These increases were offset by the revenue loss and costs of £297,000 in respect of fees payable on the Hallin Marine share disposal and the investment in Memorial Holdings Ltd which were required to be written off in the year.

However we will see as this share often suprises and if the memorial holding is eventually sold at a 50% gain my assessment of total nav £6.00 could be on the mark.

[skyship] 28/7/2011 09:55

In the Annual Statement B/S Memorial Holdings was valued @ £2.568m out of a Total Investments portfolio of £12.286m.

[skyship] 28/7/2011 09:27

Loobrush - sorry, don't follow...

Are we agreed that what was written off was the £297k fees in respect of the HM & MH transactions?

My point being that the whole investment hasn't been written off - just the fees!

[loobrush] 27/7/2011 19:58

SKYSHIP- TAKEN FROM END OF YEAR ACCOUNTS AS BELOW

Net Asset Value per share

The net asset value per share increased by 3.2p to 476.9p as a result of the increase in the valuation of the property portfolio by £490,000 and gains on the securities portfolio of £813,000. These increases were offset by the revenue loss and costs of £297,000 in respect of fees payable on the Hallin Marine share disposal and the additional investment in Memorial Holdings Ltd which were required to be written off in the year.

Although in the interims -which does not give an asset value-the shares are shown ,in the end of yeat accounts the value is not inluded as you can see. So if this was included the cost for the memerial holdings was not included.Therefore in my view the interim nect asset value should be about plus 50 p at £5.26 -do yoiu agree. If so final asset value with planning gain could be £6.00 plus not £5.00, a 50% gain.

[skyship] 27/7/2011 18:48

Meadow - I agree an uplift a distinct possibility. That is why I bought; and why I topped up today. We need news to update targets; but I think 500p is a quite reasonable starting expectation.

[meadow50] 27/7/2011 11:27

topped up with another 1k shares.lowest spread for ages.
loobrush may be optimistic but the remark in last yrs annual report...
We anticipate being able to maximise value on our property investments through planning gain and lettings over a period of approximately two years and we intend to dispose of these assets in an orderly fashion. The securities portfolio will also be realised during the same period of time to allow some of the unquoted investments to maximise values. We will endeavour to restrict overhead costs whilst undertaking the realisation of the investment portfolio.
.....implies to me an uplift of at least 10% from the DEC values.

[skyship] 27/7/2011 08:14

Added today with 2.5k @ 398p, taking some of that 10k sale @ 395p the other day - my guess is that it was a stray probate sale!

Taking the share price as 400p and the timescale to liquidation as 30th Jun'13; the Gross Redemption Yields are as follows:

Cash Return @ 476.9p (31st Mar'11 NAV) = 9.55%
Cash Return @ 500p (4.84% NAV increase) = 12.27%

[skyship] 26/7/2011 14:28

Loobrush - as a matter of interest, why do you believe that Memorial Holdings is not included in the balance sheet, ergo in the NAV?

Seems to me quite clear from viewing April's Prelims and the more recent IMS that MH is included at a valuation of c£2.5m.

It may be undervalued, who knows, but it is most certainly in there in the Dec'10 Investment portfolio valued in total @ £12.386m

[skyship] 22/7/2011 17:35

Joined in for a few today - and added GHE to the SL thread.

[loobrush] 06/6/2011 13:13

this is taking off,maybe assests are bigger than we think !

[loobrush] 03/6/2011 20:45

If you look at accounts the 476 pence asset value is not up to date and doesn't include their holdings in Memorial --also property vlies on sites due to be sold does not take into account final realisable values. In my view when all fully sold in 2 years and cashed in nav could be a lot higher. By my calculation could be 575 pence which nmakes this share a screaming but with nearly no risk- a guarantee at least to get your money back and a 30-40% upside
Whta share can beat this. This is my view unless anyone else has anything to add when please advise.

[meadow50] 10/5/2011 14:32

agm on 19 may.If BOD proposal accepted assets to be sold over 2 years.NAV of 476 ,todays share price 355 a 25% discount to assets.Good buy for Greshams goodbye imo