U.S. Government Bonds Pull Back Ahead of New Debt Supply
22 May 2017 - 9:18PM
Dow Jones News
By Min Zeng
U.S. government bonds pulled back on Monday after the biggest
weekly price gains in more than a month.
Looming new Treasury debt supply generated mild selling
pressure. A $26 billion sale of two-year Treasury notes is due
Tuesday, followed by $34 billion of five-year notes Wednesday and
$28 billion sale of seven-year notes Thursday.
Corporate bond supply is expected to pick up speed ahead of the
Memorial Day holiday, another factor hurting Treasury prices, said
analysts. Firms and banks that underwrite new corporate debt
typically sell Treasurys to hedge against unwanted interest-rate
swings, reflecting the Treasury bond market's role as a bedrock for
global finance.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note settled at
2.254%, compared with 2.243% Friday. Yields rise as bond prices
fall.
The yield dropped by 0.9 percentage point last week, driven by
political jitters out of D.C. that deflated investors' optimism
toward a rollout of large fiscal stimulus this year.
U.S. stocks have been strengthening after last Wednesday's big
selloff, a sign political anxiety has dialed back. Analysts say
this gives the Fed some breathing room to raise short-term interest
rates next month after a rise in March.
"The Fed can stick to its plan of raising rates two more times
this year as long as financial conditions don't tighten
dramatically," said Kathy Jones, chief fixed-income strategist at
Schwab Center for Financial Research.
Ms. Jones said the Fed would reassess its tightening outlook if
"political turmoil" gets to a point where it starts to affect the
U.S. growth outlook.
The Fed's minutes for its meeting on May 2 and 3 is due
Wednesday afternoon. Investors will zero in on clues about the pace
of interest-rate increases as well as discussions about how to wind
down the Fed's large balance sheet, which includes more than $2
trillion of Treasury debt holdings.
The cost of one-month U.S. dollar loans between banks reached
its highest level in more than eight years on Monday, a sign of
strong expectations that the Fed would act next month. The
one-month London interbank offered rate was 1.03% Monday, according
to ICE Benchmark Administration, the unit of Intercontinental
Exchange that oversees Libor. That is its highest point since Dec.
15, 2008, when the rate reached 0.96%.
Fed-funds futures, used by investors to bet on the Fed's policy
outlook, showed a 79% chance that the Fed would raise short-term
interest rates by its June 13-14 meeting, according to CME Group.
The likelihood was put at 74% Friday and 51% a month ago.
Higher interest rates from the Fed tend to dilute the value of
outstanding bonds, yet the 10-year Treasury note yield remains near
the lowest of the year.
Analysts say the bond market is showing some skepticism about
the Fed's likelihood to raise rates further in the second half of
the year, driven partly by waning confidence toward President
Donald Trump's ability to push through large fiscal stimulus.
"Sentiment has certainly extended further against the
possibility that we'll see anything meaningful from Congress in
terms of tax reforms and pro-business initiatives, in an intuitive
response to the investigation into involvement between the Trump
campaign and Russian officials," said Ian Lyngen, head of U.S.
rates strategy at BMO Capital Markets.
Despite the roaring stock markets this year, Treasury bond
yields have fallen after a big rise during late 2016. The 10-year
yield traded at 2.446% at the end of 2016. In mid-March, it traded
above 2.6%.
Net bets by hedge funds and money managers wagering on higher
prices or lower yields via the 10-year Treasury futures hit $24
billion for the week that ended May 16, according to TD Securities.
That was the highest since December 2007.
At the end of February, net bets wagering on higher yields had
soared above $40 billion. The reversal indicates many investors
have either exited or pared the sell-Treasurys trade, which was the
consensus trade leading into this year.
--Katy Burne contributed to this article.
Write to Min Zeng at min.zeng@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
May 22, 2017 16:03 ET (20:03 GMT)
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