Tethys Takeover Rumours (TPL)

Can't see an issue of new shares as that would dilute the main shareholders. While I still see Tethys as a sitting duck for a takeover, I do feel that we will see some strong growth first once we get the production license.

Dr3dd, as frustrating as things are at the moment, the bottom line is that if things turn out the way we hope then not only will there be upward momentum but you will be looking at multiples of today's price even before growth, and or a takeover is factored in.

Peter, we know Tethys is talking to KMG about accessing it's pipelines to world markets and we know that KMG is looking to boost it's reserves. That's why I say that as soon as the KMG grants Tethys access then we can start talking about a takeover.

It could just be that the Kazak concert party have finally come to the conclusion that they cannot achieve full ownership of the company as they would like and that they have to work with Bill and the small shareholders in what would amount to a fresh start for the company. That could be because they want to grow the company for their own capital appreciation or they want to fatten the company up for a takeover. Either way it would seem that Tethys is now going for growth.

In my opinion it is too early to talk about a takeover but it's worth noting that reserves are valued at 5 times Tethys present market cap so a takeover would need a decent premium to that to be successful. Morgan Stanley are certainly piling in.

I think a multiple bag from here is very possible even before a takeover is factored in but I think 3-4x is a viable target with a ramp up of production, achieving world oil prices and moving to a proper exchange. The resumption of dividends will also add value to its shares and be welcomed by investors.

Market cap around £50 million at the minute. Could be looking at 3-4x from here in terms of takeover maybe but can't see it getting into the billions territory TBH! You would think Wells has an exit plan in that respect or maybe they want to slurp up some nice big dividends first!

Or indeed tidy up the balance sheet ahead of a takeover.

I think from all the manipulation we have seen in the past that it's clear that the concert party would like to take the company out as cheap as possible but they cannot force a sale all the time Bill holds his stake. So what do they do?. They cannot force a sale unless it's at a knockout price that's acceptable to Bill who obviously knows the true value of Tethys. Luckily we can see the answer already because of the push to sign off the production license. By doing that it is a clear sign that the aim is to grow the company and either benefit from that growth themselves or having grown the company to then sell it on to those with deeper pockets. Either way I think Tethys is a takeover waiting to happen. It's just a question of when.

Peter, yes that is correct. The last reserve figures looked suspect because they were significantly less than the previous figures which themselves had been upgraded from the ones before that. Either these highly reputable companies are not doing their job properly or there has been an effort to downplay Tethys assets because reserves don't just disappear. Likewise with production, the wells have never been allowed to flow at full capacity and have always produced with a small choke. The manipulation this last few years has been shocking and has been in tandem with efforts to take control of the company. I cannot see the SP being held back once the license has been signed and Tethys implement their plans so it makes sense for those trying to take full control of the company to maximise their return or buy the small shareholders out. There is no doubt in my mind that Tethys will become a takeover target, the only question is when.

The only thing we know for sure is that the granting of the license will have raised the asking price in the event of a takeover.