Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Ariana Resources Plc LSE:AAU London Ordinary Share GB00B085SD50 ORD 0.1P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  0.00 0.0% 4.90 1,022,712 01:00:00
Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price
4.80 5.00 4.90 4.90 4.90
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Mining 5.09 0.45 10.9 53
Last Trade Time Trade Type Trade Size Trade Price Currency
15:30:26 O 101,010 4.95 GBX

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Ariana Resources Daily Update: Ariana Resources Plc is listed in the Mining sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker AAU. The last closing price for Ariana Resources was 4.90p.
Ariana Resources Plc has a 4 week average price of 4.73p and a 12 week average price of 4.65p.
The 1 year high share price is 6.40p while the 1 year low share price is currently 4.20p.
There are currently 1,084,677,943 shares in issue and the average daily traded volume is 2,216,478 shares. The market capitalisation of Ariana Resources Plc is £53,149,219.21.
plasybryn: Can you believe the amount of positive news flowing from Ariana Resources (AAU) this week and the share price refuses to budge. It sounds like there is still a lot of short term news to come, so surely the share price must reflect value soon
konil: carcosa, agree but take issue with one point... "Since AAU have just agreed to bung shareholders with a wad of cash then clearly there is nothing on the horizon for AAU to get their teeth into to warrant a cash raise." for a company with a bod the size of aau, and essentially one man driving the agenda, there is a limit to how many things can sensibly be taken on and some would argue ks is already spread quite thin so further projects become untenable. in such a situation it is often good practice to reward shareholders where there is surplus cash reserve. (better than squandering cash on vanity projects as some companies do.) this brings me to what i see as a big risk for aau and given that aau's attributes mitigate most other risks, imo this is currently the biggest risk, i.e. keyman risk, if ks becomes unable to execute his duties for aau the company will have an existential problem. they should be looking to augment the bod with executive personnel to reduce this risk, they have the cash for additional salary bills but the difficulty is finding the right skills together with correct personality fit with existing bod. as regards insti placing i agree your points but just mention that if aau do a placing north of current share price then it is not dilutive. is it likely to happen? don't know, probably not. does it ever happen? yes.
carcosa: This subject comes around yet again. Intuitional Interest I just don't see any financial intuitional interest happening until the market cap is north of 100m. At current market cap values its not worth any of them getting out of bed for it. PI's bemoaned the fact of dilution quite a while back and your company sought to stop going back to the markets as soon as practical to do so. As has been mentioned by the company if an institution wants a look in then new shares/dilution will have to happen. Since AAU have just agreed to bung shareholders with a wad of cash then clearly there is nothing on the horizon for AAU to get their teeth into to warrant a cash raise. But this is where having close contacts with PG can pay off handsomely albeit potentially months to years away... if one of PG's existing clients wants to 'do something' then PG can facilitate with an informed, accurate and long history of knowing AAU and get them talking together. In corporate activities AAU has punched far above their weight, successfully negotiated with Turkey/Cyprus authorities, successfully achieved a complex corporate deal with extremely large third party companies, have tremendous success in not finding a 'duster', have wheeled and dealed with land in Australia etc., All items that are not so easily 'seen' on a balance sheet. The 'intangibles', if you will. AAU is the smallest mining company, I think, that PG has on their books which gives some gravitas to AAU. AAU's share price is dictated by the daily whims of retail investors, if not hourly whims. The low share price is the result of PI investors and no one else. AAU have issued numerous RNS's presentations and still PI's are not happy. At the end of the day AAU is a tinpot mining company to the outside world and giving away a large pot of money will be seen as the company not having any ideas what to do but as things expand in Cyprus and elsewhere then hopefully things will improve and then we see what PG brings to the table... if we can wait that long!
konil: i would hope they do debt funding for tavsan unless share price significantly higher, else much dilution. by the time salinbas needs aau funds the share price should be much higher (else something very wrong with the company) so placing less dilutive from current levels.
konil: the share price undervaluation here makes me wonder whether aau management see it as such and if so are they concerned by it? perhaps their approach is to get on with business and let the share price take care of itself in the hope that share price will correct over time. this is not always a bad approach but given the skin they have in the game i would expect them to take more action to rectify the situation i.e. ensure broker and pr companies are properly getting the message out there. for companies with small mkt cap this can be very effective if handled properly. whilst its good to hear from kerim on his video interviews, they are rather short and therefore not detailed or comprehensive (the most recent proactive interview looked as though it was cut short towards the end). it has been too long since an updated detailed operational overview was available.
kirbs4: I still read this board most days but don't contribute as much any more, seems to be mostly the same thing. There is either a seller in the background (I mean this guy must've owned 30% for the length of time the selling has been happening), delays, bad PR etc. In truth it is all relevant to a certain extent, but ultimately I think little old AAU has reached the point in its growth that it now just reflects the gold price. It is alarming the similarity in the gp vs share price pattern over the last 12 months. My view is this will continue until something significantly changes the known value of the company and the difficulty is most of what is coming is now already expected. I am happy here, I feel locked and loaded, I don't see much by way of downside, I see almost guaranteed gradual upside, and there is a slowly growing possibility every day of something spectacular happening in future. I feel a lot of people are still expecting a trebling over night and I just don't see anything coming that will do that, I think we are now a solid proposition with a hopefully regular income from Divis and a growing potential for something new to give us that explosion in future. Just think a reset of expectations is needed for some people. I joined 7 years ago with those hopeful expectations, and we sit at 5 times the share price back then.
plasybryn: I've just listened to some really interesting comments by Nolan Watson, CEO of Canadian (TSX) listed Sandstorm Gold (SAND). As you may recall, Sandstorm bought into the World Class, high grade Hot Maden Copper and Gold deposit, which is just 8 kilometres south of our Hot Gold Corridor and in particular our asset known as Hizarliyayla. Nolan was able to say that the Turkish Government had been in fairly strict Covid lockdown in 2021 and this had put permits back on Hot Maden a bit. The Hot Maden E.I.A. & F.S. have consequently slipped from the expected Q2 to Q3 2021 but he is now hearing that the Government is back in harness and permits are expected imminently, hence his Q3 expectation. Furthermore he said that even though Hot Maden cost them 2 years or more ago c. $176m for a 30% stake and has since advanced considerably, he doesn't think the market has priced it in. In fact with the increase in Gold & Copper prices he says the project economics are now much stronger and that will be the same for us. As such he believes the Hot Maden E.I.A. will be a huge catalyst for the share price and thinks investors and the market will be shocked it has moved forward so much. I can see strong correlations here with Salinbas and Tavsan both in terms of their value not being recognised and the huge catalyst they represent for our share price. Nolan also predicts copper prices will go much higher and Hot Maden is now 75% gold & 25% copper. He said in effect investors will be getting the gold for free. If they get their E.I.A. in Q3, he hopes they will start building the mine by the end of 2021. Perhaps Salinbas will take less time than we think. Interestingly he also said that Environmental Permits in Turkey can present real challenges especially for large open pits in highly forested areas where they have to cut down large numbers of trees. However at Hot Maden this is not the case. Perhaps this is also the case for us in the Hot Gold Corridor due to the mountainous location? My opinion is that the announcement of the Hot Maden E.I.A., hopefully during this quarter, will trigger significant investor interest in the region and have a strong positive knock on benefit for Ariana. We shall see.
renniks2016: Below are the data sources, inputs and calculation used to determine the intrinsic value for Ariana Resources. AIM:AAU Discounted Cash Flow Data Sources Data Point Source Value Valuation Model 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity Levered Free Cash Flow Average of 1 Analyst Estimates (S&P Global) See below Discount Rate (Cost of Equity) See below 6.5% Perpetual Growth Rate 5-Year Average of GB Long-Term Govt Bond Rate 0.9% An important part of a discounted cash flow is the discount rate, below we explain how it has been calculated. Calculation of Discount Rate/ Cost of Equity for AIM:AAU Data Point Calculation/ Source Result Risk-Free Rate 5-Year Average of GB Long-Term Govt Bond Rate 0.9% Equity Risk Premium S&P Global 5.3% Metals and Mining Unlevered Beta Simply Wall St/ S&P Global 1.06 Re-levered Beta = 0.33 + [(0.66 * Unlevered beta) * (1 + (1 - tax rate) (Debt/Market Equity))] = 0.33 + [(0.66 * 1.063) * (1 + (1 - 19.0%) (0%))] 1.042 Levered Beta Levered Beta limited to 0.8 to 2.0 (practical range for a stable firm) 1.042 Discount Rate/ Cost of Equity = Cost of Equity = Risk Free Rate + (Levered Beta * Equity Risk Premium) = 0.92% + (1.042 * 5.31%) 6.46% Discounted Cash Flow Calculation for AIM:AAU using 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity The calculations below outline how an intrinsic value for Ariana Resources is arrived at by discounting future cash flows to their present value using the 2 stage method. We use analyst's estimates of cash flows going forward 10 years for the 1st stage, the 2nd stage assumes the company grows at a stable rate into perpetuity. AIM:AAU DCF 1st Stage: Next 10 years cash flow forecast Levered FCF (GBP, Millions) Source Present Value Discounted (@ 6.46%) 2022 3.5 Est @ 81.11% 3.29 2023 5.5 Est @ 57.05% 4.85 2024 7.71 Est @ 40.21% 6.39 2025 9.9 Est @ 28.42% 7.71 2026 11.9 Est @ 20.17% 8.7 2027 13.61 Est @ 14.4% 9.35 2028 15.02 Est @ 10.35% 9.69 2029 16.15 Est @ 7.52% 9.79 2030 17.04 Est @ 5.54% 9.71 2031 17.75 Est @ 4.16% 9.5 Present value of next 10 years cash flows £78 AIM:AAU DCF 2nd Stage: Terminal Value Calculation Result Terminal Value FCF2031 × (1 + g) ÷ (Discount Rate – g) = £17.753 x (1 + 0.92%) ÷ (6.46% - 0.92% ) £323.66 Present Value of Terminal Value = Terminal Value ÷ (1 + r)10 £324 ÷ (1 + 6.46%)10 £173.14 AIM:AAU Total Equity Value Calculation Result Total Equity Value = Present value of next 10 years cash flows + Terminal Value = £78 + £173 £251.14 Equity Value per Share (GBP) = Total value / Shares Outstanding = £251 / 1,085 £0.23 AIM:AAU Discount to Share Price Calculation Result Value per share (GBP) From above. £0.23 Current discount Discount to share price of £0.051 = (£0.23 - £0.051) / £0.23
charles clore: It is my understanding from the beginning of the JV that Ozaltin would be happy to leave the mining decisions to AAU and Proccea. Given the private nature of Ozaltin's corporate structure I have always been doubtful of the new partnership's ability to further shareholder expectations and although I can see some decent advantages in the partnership it has always struck me as giving away too much of the family jewels for too little cash and losing a significant amount of corporate control over Turkish assets. There has been no news regarding the structure of the new partnership since its inception and until AAU shareholders get a flavour of future plans, areas of responsibility, accountability etc. we are trapped in a vacuum where there will be no new investors in AAU and AAU will, and is already showing strong signs of, becoming a lifestyle company. We all know how successful AAU has been in its previous partnership with Proccea over the past 4 or 5 years so my question is - what exactly has Ozaltin brought to the party? And why has the AAU management persistently ignored shareholders questions surrounding operational matters and dissatisfaction with the house broker and PR? When will the bod finally step up to the plate and come clean with a SCHEDULE of future plans with DEADLINES?
konil: temujiin, if ozaltin need guidance then aau and proccea have a wealth of knowledge and experience so ozaltin don't have far to go to get it. it would be surprising if they were left on their own to progress their parts and that would not be making the most of the jv. having made an outstanding success of kizil i'm inclined to think aau (and proccea) have more nous than to just leave ozaltin to flounder in unfamiliar territory. of course as well as ozaltin's local clout as a contractor, having an indigenous majority owner in a regime like turkey is a huge plus and probably a wise move by aau/proccea. as regards the relatively small new investment in europe, i'd rather they went cautiously like that instead of spraying around the jv millions, something which other managements tend to do with a big cash input, hope aau do not do that. and of course results which feed to the share price from such early stage mining projects will take considerable time. but there are relatively nearer term projects (tavsan/salinbas) which will have big share price impact and complaints about lack of news on those and general level of communication entirely justified imo. in the time i have been invested here (a year and a bit) i have noticed a marked difference in the information coming from the company compared to the historical rns's i used for my research pre-investment. so the dissenting voices are not dissatisfaction with the jv (the jury on jv will be out for at least a year or two, these things take a lot of time to bed in) but are aimed at the poor communication.
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