By Joe Wallace
August has been a bitter month for sugar traders as a potential
surfeit of Indian exports, the strong dollar and a slowing world
economy combined to push prices toward their lowest level in a
decade.
Raw-sugar prices are on course for their biggest one-month
decline this year, having fallen 6.1% to 11 cents a pound in the
New York futures market. The sweet ingredient has rarely been
cheaper since prices surged in 2009 and 2010.
The drop extends a two-year stretch in which depressed prices
have squeezed profits at sugar refineries, hurt farmers whose
livelihoods depend on the crop and led to tensions between nations
that are major producers. A big part of the decline stems from
India, which overtook Brazil as the world's biggest grower of sugar
in the 2018-19 season, producing 33.1 million tons.
"We're really seeing a serious excess of sugar right now," said
Kona Haque, head of research at London-based trading house ED&F
Man. "Thailand had a mega crop. India had a huge crop. Brazil is
doing everything it can to balance the market."
The current crop from India will be the third in a row that
exceeds 30 million tons, the U.S. Department of Agriculture
forecast, and the 2020-21 harvest is likely to be larger still
following a rapid improvement in monsoon rainfall over the past
month.
Bumper harvests have swelled India's sugar stockpiles to around
17.6 million tons, according to the USDA. The prospect of these
being sold on international markets has weighed on global prices
for much of the year.
Many participants in the sugar market expect the Indian
government to renew an export subsidy program for refineries in the
coming weeks, albeit with some tweaks. The policy, introduced last
year, contributed to a 52% rise in exports and has drawn ire from
rival producers. The World Trade Organization is investigating
complaints by Australia, Brazil and Guatemala that the subsidies
are illegal.
At a WTO meeting on Aug. 15, India said its policies weren't
distorting the global sugar market and denied that the nation had
broken WTO rules. The support aims to help 35 million vulnerable
farmers, according to Indian authorities.
Meanwhile, the dollar has strengthened, denting the price of
commodities that are sold overseas from emerging markets. Cocoa
prices have dropped further than sugar in August.
The price of sugar has been eroded by the same concerns about
global economic-growth prospects that have pushed down Brent
crude-oil prices by 6.7% over the past month. That is because it is
closely tied to energy costs as Brazilian mills are able to refine
sugar cane into either ethanol or sugar.
Robin Shaw, an analyst at London-based brokerage Marex Spectron,
describes the price of oil as "a compass for sugar because of the
ethanol parity in Brazil." Swings in the energy market "can sway
sugar production by about 10 million tons in the course of a season
-- which is massive," he added.
Adding to the long-term pressure on sugar prices, governments in
some developed economies are seeking to discourage consumption to
tackle conditions such as obesity and diabetes. Demand in emerging
markets, though hard to measure precisely, is growing slowly amid
pressure on incomes from weak local currencies.
Some analysts think prices could pick up. The global demand for
sugar will exceed new supplies by at least 4 million tons in the
2019-20 season, according to forecasts from Tracey Allen, an
agricultural commodities strategist at JPMorgan Chase. Prices need
to rise this year to encourage Brazilian millers to produce more
sugar, she said.
But for now, sugar producers are struggling. Germany's Südzucker
AG, Europe's largest sugar refiner, said in July that revenue in
its sugar unit fell 16% in the three months through May from a year
earlier.
"Everyone's losing money," said Julian Price, an independent
sugar consultant and former president of the European Association
of Sugar Traders. "I don't think it's been as bad as this almost
forever."
In the oil market, prices rose Monday after falling last week.
Speaking at the Group of Seven summit, President Trump struck a
more moderate tone on the U.S.-China trade war, saying that
negotiations between the two countries were "more meaningful than
at any time."
When asked whether he would consider delaying or canceling
planned tariffs on China, he said, "Anything's possible." The
comments lifted investor optimism that trade tensions, which have
roiled markets from stocks to commodities in recent weeks, will
ease.
West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. crude benchmark, climbed 1.2%
to $54.80 a barrel. Brent, the global reference price, added 0.6%
to $59.69.
Also boosting sentiment among oil traders was data on Friday
showing that the number of active U.S. oil rigs fell by 16 to 754,
the lowest since January 2018.
Persistently low oil prices near $50 a barrel have forced
producers to tap the brakes on new activity. By region, the oil
rig-count in the shale-focused Permian Basin of West Texas and New
Mexico dropped to a 17-month low, while other basins including
Ardmore Woodford in Oklahoma also saw declines.
Hedge funds and other speculative investors reduced bearish bets
on U.S. crude oil, pushing the ratio of bullish bets to bearish
wagers to its highest level in nearly three months, Commodity
Futures Trading Commission data through the week ended Aug. 20
show.
Bearish bets fell to about 50,000 contracts from roughly 67,000
contracts the prior week, lifting the ratio of bullish bets to
bearish ones above 5 for the first time since late May. The
pullback in short bets comes as new pipelines that transport crude
to the Gulf Coast have increased interest in the oil market,
traders said, pushing prices of U.S. crude closer to Brent, the
global price benchmark.
Amrith Ramkumar and Dan Molinski contributed to this
article.
Write to Joe Wallace at Joe.Wallace@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
August 26, 2019 11:31 ET (15:31 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2019 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.