Woodford Patient Capital Share Discussion Threads

[ak47high] 28/8/2019 08:12

hxxps://www.moneyobserver.com/news/three-months-after-suspension-how-woodford-equity-income-getting

[chucko1] 27/8/2019 22:48

And PRTA ends up 26.5%. They saw him coming.

The HFs are going to end up taking £500mm or so from the repositioning of WEIF. It was ever thus when seen as a forced seller. That alone probably makes it fair to call him one of the worst ever UK equity fund managers. You might make bad stock calls, but don’t EVER get into a situation where your hand is on public display.

[spectoacc] 27/8/2019 19:48

Sounds like cost-cutting to me, no indication he'll be replaced. Cash-burn is no doubt eye watering, with the WIM tap not so much off, as only so much left in the hosepipe. No mains pressure.

...Which could almost be a description of Woody himslf.

[daffyjones] 27/8/2019 18:53

The FD was on a contract that required a 12 month notice period from either side. Unusual that he is stepping down with immediate effect. And just one day before the AGM? Well dodgy

[topvest] 27/8/2019 17:22

That doesn’t bode well, but Proton was always going to run out of cash sooner than later. A very worthwhile cause. A very poor investment unfortunately.

[jonwig] 27/8/2019 16:37

The FD of Rutherford Health (Proton Partners as was) has resigned just one day before the company's AGM. It looks as though a cash call on Woodford is imminent. News tomorrow?

[Reported on share price ]

[williamcooper104] 27/8/2019 16:34

To be fair IH is no more unreal than technological solutions to the border

[scrapheap] 27/8/2019 16:23

and the share price surge today......

[scrapheap] 27/8/2019 16:23

Looks like Woodford's sold pretty much all of the Prothena holding - see the buyers RNS yesterday.

[chucko1] 27/8/2019 14:46

William, Boris cannot change the laws of physics, but he could reinterpret, or even lie about them. He could claim he had discussed them with the various noble prize winners of his former college. Hey presto!

[williamcooper104] 27/8/2019 14:44

There's nothing linear about the valuations (the real ones as opposed to mark to make believe) of WPCTs litter of companies

[chucko1] 27/8/2019 14:33

Buywell, the more thoughtful posters on this board are not slaves to whatever level the NAV happens to be published - they are analysing what it actually is. Were it to be honestly/accurately assessed, at least we could see who had their fingers on the pulse.

Not an easy task, but I am estimating around 30p. What’s your estimate for NAV? - then you can use your “linear progression” method to establish a share price. That said, are you sure it remains linear over large movements? Personally, I suspect not.

[williamcooper104] 27/8/2019 14:29

Buywell3 - Boris getting any deal will not be the change in the law of physics that WPCT needs to boost NAV

[buywell3] 27/8/2019 13:55

Today NAV has hit 74.72p

Based upon previous buywell metrics if NAV hits 70p then WPCT could hit 35p on current linear progression decline

NAV 65p will give 30p ... could IMO take at least 4 weeks to get there , maybe up to eight weeks

Sorry can't be closer

However

Boris gets a decent deal and it changes things

[spectoacc] 27/8/2019 13:54

STJ - ridiculous how long they left the money with Woody, how many PFGs, KIEs etc did they need to see?

[daffyjones] 27/8/2019 13:45

@RCTurner2 "To be fair to Woodford he has always invested in this way. When he ran the fund at Invesco he worked in the same way, with a significant % (5 to 10) of the fund invested in unlisted stocks. "

St James Place ran the numbers before they moved their mandate from Invesco to WIM when Woodford branched out on his own. They found that Woodford had never made any significant profit on his unlisted and illiquid holdings during his time at Invesco. His outperformance returns came from his mid and large cap holdings. That's why SJP restricted him to only owning FTSE 350 companies in the fund he ran for them (not that it helped as his performance was utterly dire for them too).

[biggest bill] 27/8/2019 12:43

I see that Cambridge Cognition shares have collapsed today. I was absolutely shocked to discover that Neil Woodford hadn't invested in this company. It ticked all the boxes that Woodford liked.

[buywell3] 27/8/2019 11:02

Testing 40p again which is buywells call IF NAV keeps dropping towards 75p

And it has been shedding circa o.2p ish most days in recent weeks

few weeks back NV was 83p now flirting with 77p

A loss of 5p in say 4 weeks

Equates to 10p in 8 weeks

Based upon that 30p could come by the middle of October

BUT

The thing that could save him if Boris gets a deal from his new EU buddies

Merkel for one wants a deal with England to still sell expensive German cars

A Deal will get markets up circa 5% to 10% even as the GBP strengthens and would allow for a 0.25% rate cut

dyor ---- your turn

[1oughton] 27/8/2019 10:46

30's coming Oh dear.

[spectoacc] 27/8/2019 10:41

@RCT2 - at Invesco he did indeed have the "barbell" approach, but the solid core was big bets on out-of-favour value, completely ignoring the flashy tech end. He did that in 99/00, not holding a single tech share, and again 2007/08, not holding a single bank share, and both times eventually cleaned up.

Since c.2015/16 he's completely switched - now it's mostly techs ("bio" that is), unicorns with no profits and barely any revenues (but fantastic losses), and only a smattering of (what he sees as) value - housebuilders and subprime lenders.

You can argue his unlisteds have only got so large because of redemptions, but that's to ignore the listed unlisteds - ALM, MERC, IPO, WPCT(!) and many more, which don't appear in the figures.

That also ignores the listeds that may as well be unlisted - eg HONY, trading fewer than 1,000 shares a day - and the all the Fat Bloke Finance stuff that sees cross-holdings all over the place (RAVs etc).

Add in the listed biotechs and it's clear - and was clear for a long time - that Woody wasn't remotely still doing what he claimed and still claims to be doing.

And that's before getting to all the money flushed away on things like EVE, RM2 etc.

[rcturner2] 27/8/2019 10:30

To be fair to Woodford he has always invested in this way. When he ran the fund at Invesco he worked in the same way, with a significant % (5 to 10) of the fund invested in unlisted stocks. Of course this does not matter when the fund is growing fast and the investments are performing. The problem is that once you get redemptions at the rate he was getting you are fked.

[biggest bill] 27/8/2019 10:20

Since most fund managers can't even match index trackers over time, it must be harder than you think.

[martinfrench] 27/8/2019 09:44

and to be honest, to be a successful fund manager all you have to do is beat the ftse average, that aint that hard.

[martinfrench] 27/8/2019 09:43

careful,

agree on most of that, however reneuron are certainly not a dud!

ok, below where we should be and he bought in much higher (never sure why he paid such a premium) but still great company, time has yet to fully come.

i think with woodford it was just a case of trying to reinvent himself, get extra clever and move away from what he prob used to do.

stick to what your good at.

[careful] 27/8/2019 09:32

Are there any investments in this trust that have done well?
This clown Woodford has been exposed as the worst ever professional investor.

He got lucky in the past, he did the right thing, no doubt for the wrong reasons.

With WPCT he probably felt important going round to start up companies in need of cash to pursue their crazy ideas, and fell for the fancy projections and overhead presentations.
He had more cash to place than he knew what to do with.

Every one a dud.