Woodford Patient Capital Share Discussion Threads

[spectoacc] 02/9/2019 08:31

Interesting letter in The Sunday Times in support of Woody, about how he's been unlucky & just needs more time. I've no sympathy with mug punters who believed what Neil says, rather than looking at what he was doing. No one should still have had money in WEIF by the gating. All £3.5bn of it.

(IFF more nuanced - no unlisteds, fewer wild biotech punts. But the performance should say it all).

Also - seems I was wrong about LLOY being his "Liquid, FTSE100, UK-focussed" punt. He's been buying BT, BATS, & IAG. BT, fine, mostly UK. But BATS & IAG??

[andy] 01/9/2019 21:52

Jonwig,


Just like Purplebricks!

[jonwig] 01/9/2019 20:35

Just watching Dragons Den (BBC2) - one pitch was an online business mending clothes which had huge start-up losses. She saw herself as a "disruptor", and was told she had been given too much money to start with, hence had no discipline.

A fake disruptor and more money than sense. Rang a bell straight away.

[tim 3] 01/9/2019 18:39

"Markets are never wrong opinions often are" Jesse Livermore.

[topvest] 01/9/2019 17:38

Name me one stellar investment Woodford made 5 years ago when he bought over a hundred different companies? Burford...oops, maybe not.

[careful] 01/9/2019 15:04

Sunday Times today.
'Woodford blames markets for funds failure'

'Momentum driven market whose characteristics were the antithesis of our fundamentally anchored investment mentality.'

[topvest] 01/9/2019 12:01

Yet another deluded commentary. The under-performance has been due to two things: 1. Neil's ability to pick awful companies; and 2. The value style is being trounced by momentum.

In my view 1. >> 2. in terms of the rationale, but 1. is ignored.


"The portfolio delivered a disappointingly negative return during the period under review, in conditions which remained unfavourable for our disciplined, valuation-oriented investment approach. Conversely, the broader UK stock market delivered a robust double-digit return during the period, with leadership – as has been the case for much of the last three years – coming from oil, mining and other large global-facing companies.

These conditions have all the hallmarks of a momentum-driven market. Momentum investing involves buying assets when they have risen in price and selling assets when the price has fallen, with little or no regard paid to the fundamental value of those assets. It is the anti-thesis of our fundamentally-anchored investment approach which will, as a result, tend to under- perform in such conditions.

In the UK, this momentum has manifested itself in a narrow fixation on businesses that are seen as beneficiaries of a reflationary global growth scenario that we simply did not (and do not) believe in. It has come despite increasing evidence of problems in many emerging market economies, most prominently, China. The fund has very little exposure to these parts of the market because of macroeconomic concerns and on valuation grounds. This lack of exposure to sectors such as Basic Materials, Oil & Gas, Consumer Goods and large financial groups such as HSBC, explains a significant proportion of the fund’s under-performance.

Instead, the portfolio has been biased towards the few areas of the market which continue to offer valuation appeal. This has resulted in a meaningful exposure to domestically-focused businesses, which have been left behind in the late-stage bull market conditions that have prevailed, and therefore represent the most attractively valued stocks in our investment universe. Nevertheless, this positioning proved unhelpful during the period, with continued Brexit uncertainty weighing on the share prices of many business that have a reasonable exposure to the UK, irrespective of their starting valuations. This explains a further part of the portfolio’s underperformance during the period, with negative contributions from the likes of Provident Financial, Redde and Eddie Stobart Logistics.

Meanwhile, we also saw a negative contribution from some of the portfolio’s earlier-stage healthcare stocks, including Autolus, Circassia and Mereo Biopharma. Here too, share price weakness was not fundamentally-driven. Indeed, each of these three businesses delivered meaningfully positive operational progress during the period under review, but this was not enough to prevent their share prices from declining in a market environment which remains hostile towards this sort of investment opportunity.

More positively, some of the portfolio’s exposure to UK housebuilding started to perform well for the portfolio, including Barratt Developments and Taylor Wimpey. We also saw bids for BCA Marketplace and Nightstar Therapeutics during the period. There are many ways through which under-valuation can ultimately be realised, and corporate activity is one of them. We would expect to see more bids going forward."

[daffyjones] 31/8/2019 12:57

This guy flip-flops more than buyunwell!

careful - 29 Jul 2019 9161 of 10065
irresistible
market price 51.5p
discount 36%.
just bought in again.
I have a good record here and a nose for a bargain.

careful - 31 Jul 2019 - 9273 of 10065
Many understand the cold fusion scam.
This was exposed as bunk decades ago.
how could anyone fall for the same scam again?

careful - 09 Aug 2019 - 9612 of 10065
how quiet this thread goes when WPCT rises by 6%.
maybe NW is a genius after all, just a brief spell in the wilderness that now seems to be over.

careful - 27 Aug 2019 - 9975 of 10065
Are there any investments in this trust that have done well?
This clown Woodford has been exposed as the worst ever professional investor.

careful - 30 Aug 2019 - 10055 of 10065
This seems to have turned the corner.
Maybe NW was right all along.
We have not been patient enough.

[chucko1] 30/8/2019 21:44

“Careful must be on medication” - Orinocor.

So why hasn’t he been taking it?

[spectoacc] 30/8/2019 20:46

Just been reading the pathetic WIM comment about how they didn't value the unlisteds (re IH revalation). Er, except Woody largely did, by dint of taking part in later, smaller, much higher-priced funding rounds.

[topvest] 30/8/2019 18:29

They have turned a corner,....unfortunately around the corner is another very steep road and Woody’s brakes are on the blink!

[blippy3] 30/8/2019 15:38

Had a look at OPTI mentioned above. Stockpedia gives it a rank of 2, a "sucker stock".

In other words, utter bilge.

[jonwig] 30/8/2019 15:04

Now to Charon must they bow
And ask to cross the Stygian ford
But Charon won't have them as they can't pay.
Woody's taken all their money away.

[volsung] 30/8/2019 14:52

Like Icarus did Woodward fly
Alas too close, too close
To Helios’ burning brow
All investors did heave a sigh
Now to Charon must they bow
And ask to cross the Stygian ford

[orinocor] 30/8/2019 14:27

careful must be on medication

[chucko1] 30/8/2019 14:15

If upon this basis, I am not surprised that you would be confused about Careful’s post #10055:


careful - 27 Aug 2019 - 09:32:04 - 9975 of 10057 ::: WOODFORD PATIENT CAPITAL TRUST ::: - WPCT
Are there any investments in this trust that have done well?
This clown Woodford has been exposed as the worst ever professional investor.

He got lucky in the past, he did the right thing, no doubt for the wrong reasons.

With WPCT he probably felt important going round to start up companies in need of cash to pursue their crazy ideas, and fell for the fancy projections and overhead presentations.
He had more cash to place than he knew what to do with.

Every one a dud.

———;——̵2;——R12;——212;—————-

That would be one stonking great corner to turn.

[andy] 30/8/2019 11:59

Careful,


"turned the corner"?


On what basis do you make that statement?

[careful] 30/8/2019 09:18

This seems to have turned the corner.
Maybe NW was right all along.
We have not been patient enough.

[dr biotech] 30/8/2019 09:16

Isn’t it one of TW “nifty 50”. I don’t subscribe, but looking at the headlines below it appears to be. Again, I could be wrong.

[andy] 30/8/2019 09:03

jonwig,


Yes, meeting and engaging with management can be illuminating, and also very risky if the guy running the company is a good salesman.....

[spectoacc] 30/8/2019 09:00

...And open to Fat Bloke Finance bias.

One thing to say about the market - it catches the shysters in the end.

[jonwig] 30/8/2019 08:57

Andy - both TW and NW are believers in "meeting management", hence TW's OPTI tip. This leaves them open to being manipulated.