Woodford Patient Capital Share Discussion Threads

[daffyjones] 21/8/2019 15:33

Ooft

Benevolent AI: shares delisted from stock-market making them even less liquid

Circassia Pharmaceuticals: sales slow due to China hit

Northwest Biotherapeutics: subpoenaed by US regulators last year

Mereo Biopharma: Celgene declines to license a cancer treatment

Autolus: manufacturing delay hits clinical trials

Verseon: value plunge after switch in focus to blockchain technology

Prothena: shares fail to recover after drug trial failure last April

Immunocore: valuation halved in June writedown

Tissue Regenix: CEO resigns due to ill health

Hvivo: CFO leaves immediately

Nucana: major drug trial suspended

4D Pharma: needs emergency funds

Theravance Biopharma: Woodford overhang send shares down 20%

Precision Biopsy and SciFluor Life Sciences: backer Allied Minds ceases new investments

Malin: Shares plunge from €5.50 to €2 in the past two months

Arix: suffering exposure to Autolus

IP Group: down from 105p to 61p in past six months

Horizon Discovery: fell from 198p to 140p as Woodford went from 7% to 9%

[careful] 21/8/2019 15:14

It is a scandal if an official estimate can be so wrong.

[andy] 21/8/2019 14:22

careful,


Correct, the valuation of £1 billion is clearly wrong.

[davebowler] 21/8/2019 13:50

TFG are also on a c.50% discount to NAV and its assets are arguably sounder, with a 5 star rating by Trustnet.

[careful] 21/8/2019 13:46

the official daily net asset figure implies;
Shares value approx £1bn.
debt. £150m.

To match todays market cap of £377m, the shares would be worth about £517m.

How can the official estimate of the share values be almost £1bn, when the market valuation is just over 50% of that.

Seems wrong.

[careful] 21/8/2019 12:17

official net asset value still over 79p.
getting close to a 50% discount.

If the portfolio was liquidated, what would be its value?

[daffyjones] 21/8/2019 10:47

WIFF fund size down to £266mil according to Morningstar so that's dropped £30 million in a month, and less than half as big as it was in April.

Interestingly on Morningstar's portfolio analysis (based on the last full published portfolio from April) 81% of WIFF was invested in small and micro cap companies. How many of these actually pay reliable dividends?

[cc2014] 21/8/2019 09:51

Well we've got no idea what Woodford is doing do we as he's holding back on publishing monthly factsheets. 21st of the month and July's isn't out yet. Even for WIFF which is not suspended. For WIFF I consider that inexcuseable but hey this is Woodford.

WIFF market cap end of June £296m.

[buywell2] 21/8/2019 07:39

woodys still hanging on I see

[spectoacc] 21/8/2019 07:06

Agreed on banks, but starting to wonder if they're not now a better bet than the bond proxies. The ratings on the ULVRs, DGEs, RB.s etc is eye-watering, very little can go wrong. The ratings on even the High St banks are so low, how wrong can it go? Very, if another credit crunch, but the next crisis won't be like the last.

Be interesting to see if WEIF does now have a big stake in LLOY, though if it does and if it's a success, it'll once again be a move Woody was forced into. His best trades have been his forced sells.

[topvest] 20/8/2019 20:23

Better again in my view. Wrong point in the cycle for these though I think. H&T and Ramsden's are better placed (if you think gold is going up). My favourite banks are Arbuthnot and Secure Trust Bank. PCF and S&U are also OK. Banks are starting to be priced for recession at present though I feel. I'm not really a great fan of banks overall as the returns are too low and highly leveraged.

[spectoacc] 20/8/2019 20:05

Thanks @topvest. Morses Club, dare I ask? ;)

[buywell3] 20/8/2019 16:09

Did ya miss me
while I was away
did you hang my picture
on your wall for darts practise
or did you use woody's
oh yeah oh yeah oh yeah

[spectoacc] 20/8/2019 10:10

PFG still Fat Bloke Finance tho - wasn't it the PFG bloke who set up NSF after he left? And next CEO of PFG made a total mess, removing the personal relationships with the doorsteppers (tho under some pressure from FSA).

Value destruction at PFG has been breathtaking, and always the memory of Cattles too.

Not sure I'm doing a good job of convincing myself to buy NSF ;)

[ltcm1] 20/8/2019 10:08

At least with PFG there is some level of corporate governance, Woodford seems to have thrown his investors money away on a lot of dubious characters.

[spectoacc] 20/8/2019 09:04

@ltcm1 - agreed, PFG on its knees, Morses & NSF not yet tested in recession. But - everything has its price. Wonder what on earth that price is for Woody's holding. He has to sell, it's nowhere near being a FTSE250 stock, it failed to get together with PFG and wasted c.£13m of shareholders cash in the process, & 4 holders have 78%.

I reckon it'd be a decent punt at c.20p tho. Not that us mug punters ever seem to get to buy at the Woody dump price.

[ltcm1] 20/8/2019 08:58

They could be lying though, just as Purp blamed their losses on the foreign forays. The thing is it's a horrible situation when two people own over 50%, what institution is going to invest in a situation like that.

The BofE also warned a number of times about how overheated this market had got, a hard brexit certainly won't help.

[spectoacc] 20/8/2019 08:33

Vaguely OT, but anyone a view on NSF after RNS this morning? Losses mainly due to accounting for failed PFG bid where they wasted a vast sum, but underlying looks OK. Owned 28.2% Mark Barnett, 25.3% Woody Woodford. Would normally run a mile but still looking for that rare "fallen far enough" Woody holding.

Of course, like HONY, it's another he's tried to resolve by forcing a merger elsewhere (& failing). Interesting that he did the same with Touchstone/IP Group several years ago.

[spectoacc] 20/8/2019 07:18

Lol @Jonwig.

Still very much looking forward to seeing what prices Woody achieves for the unicorns - clock is ticking.

Confirmation of ITX sale out this morning.

Still no Top 10 update from 30th June - not that it makes a lot of difference for WEIF holders who are locked in indefinitely.

[jonwig] 20/8/2019 05:18

Woodford Investment Management has been an effective cold(-hearted) fusion machine. Woodford and Newman have surely got a lot more out of it than they ever put in.

[williamcooper104] 19/8/2019 22:51

I don't think they've got more out than put in yet - but lots of companies think that will happen soonBut even with that it's still minimum 30 years (and more likely 50) before it's commercially viable The money going into the sector is mainly from uber high nets seeking philanthropic payback