Tp Icap Share Discussion Threads

[bluemango] 10/9/2021 09:14

Yes, the previous forecast from Shore Capital was eps 27.5p.

I'm copying this from LSE (posted yesterday) without further comment, just to add to the mix of views here:

"@Jstar. I know TCap well. I've dealt with them. I worked in the derivatives industry for 20+ years...

Big institutions have been very slow to adopt crypto, but they're now coming around to it, because their clients demand it and they're losing business. That's why JP Morgan and Goldman have had to do an about-face. The crypto demand from the hedge funds is already frantic, especially in Asia and it's not an exaggeration to say that it's the biggest development in derivatives in a very long time. You only have to look at the trading volumes on Binance, Deribit, etc. The derivatives volumes have exploded.

The TP ICap platform will be FCA-approved which is a *huge* plus. That's sure to attract institutional interest.

Apart from all this, you have Liquidnet and a share price close to the decade low, trading on a 6.5 P/E"

[elsa7878] 10/9/2021 08:55

Forecasts several months ago were for an eps this year of 28p from memory. Now 22p - pretty epic drop. Pe of 8 seems cheap but if forecasts keep falling (and was 25.6p just a few weeks ago).....

[dhoult12] 10/9/2021 08:15

I sold out on reading the results based on margin decline even in the post exceptionals. Shouldn't happen with their business model (revenue down pay brokers less bonus margin the same) particularly after susposed cost cutting.suggests something rather wrong. So far right decision.
Would I buy back in? Only if that trend reverses or stabilises.

[rcturner2] 10/9/2021 07:31

Cheeky.

I agree the director buy does give some comfort, but I have seen directors get it wrong before. I also agree that no one knows where the share price will go. However what I do know for a fact is that in their last financial period they made a loss and are using accounting alchemy to suggest otherwise. Their revenue declined and their margin declined and that is not a good combination.

[bluemango] 10/9/2021 07:22

People could equally say you are expressing seller's bias!

No-one can boldly state either way this is going to go; whether they can pull this off and achieve the synergies etc. That was the point I was making. It's a subjective view at this stage.

[rcturner2] 10/9/2021 07:15

I think that is what is called buyer's bias! To call this an exciting recovery play is to be at odds with reality. It isn't recovering it is going downhill.

[bluemango] 10/9/2021 07:09

Alternatively imo it's a perfectly reasonable judgement to now view this as an exciting recovery play, buying a decent current and even better future yield at an attractive price; which would appear to be the view of director Mark Hemsley on Wednesday. And given his record, he should know his stuff?

A subjective and valid judgment either way.

[rcturner2] 09/9/2021 20:26

The thing is if you are after a dividend there are so many better options. Why go through the stress of buying shares in a company with serious question marks? I think people are buying here because they are thinking that this is cheap and they might get some decent capital growth while ignoring the possibility of capital destruction.

[tdor] 09/9/2021 15:40

:-)

No, don't expect 1.22 at all. But, if it gets there, I'll buy. (Unless there then is very good reason not to.) I do expect that my buy today will, in time, prove profitable.

[spectoacc] 09/9/2021 15:23

Suspect it'd take them cancelling the divi for 1.22 to appear. And would you still want to hold it if that happened..

[brucie5] 09/9/2021 15:10

You expecting 1.22? Or just making contingency for it?

[tdor] 09/9/2021 09:43

I see my order @ GBP 1.67 has been filled this morning. Next buy @ GBP 1.22. Had been trying to build in the safety I wanted into my portfolio for 9 - 12 months. With this, I have. I'll be sleeping better for it: Flow Traders, Euronext, and TP ICAP. Gold, silver, and commodities. Infrastructure. A few defense stocks. And, for income, a focus on low PE high dividend value. That's 75 % of my portfolio. The rest for trading / playing.

[bluemango] 08/9/2021 21:11

Thanks for that, missed the director buy - 22,000 at 1.7416, so £38.3k worth bought today by Mark Hemsley.

"Mark was a founding employee of Bats Europe in 2008 and, in 2011, Mr Hemsley led the acquisition and integration of Chi-X Europe, building the organisation into the largest stock exchange in Europe. Bats was acquired by Cboe Global Markets in 2017 and Mr Hemsley assumed the role of President, Cboe Europe. Prior to joining Bats, Mr Hemsley was Managing Director and Chief Information Officer at LIFFE, running its Market Solutions group"

[hatfullofsky] 08/9/2021 19:38

For those that don't know, Mark Hemsley was the guy that built BATS and CBOE Europe. He's a heavy hitter in this area. Now I'm more than certain this is a turnaround play.

[spectoacc] 08/9/2021 10:49

Housing market is gangbusters, that part is fine.

But costs are rising disproportionately. Labour costs, materials, albeit less so the land itself.

I'm with @RCT2 - housebuilders have been milking the various govnt schemes, particularly Help To Buy. If Labour get in next (and a week is a long time in politics), can see a windfall tax similar to the one they hit the banks and utility co's with.

Govnt needs the housebuilders to get anywhere near new homes targets. But it also needed the banks, water co's, electric co's, gas co's.

Housebuilders likely doing the sensible thing and paying as much as they can out in divis, whilst they can.

[brucie5] 08/9/2021 10:42

Can't argue with that analysis, and the issues around governance/policy that it implies. But sadly, I can't any 'realignment of the housing market' for a while yet, though there might be blips.

[rcturner2] 08/9/2021 10:30

Housebuilders are subsidised by the government through various schemes and yet somehow make ridiculous profits out of what is essentially land speculation. There is a significant risk that at some point they will get hit with a realignment of the housing market. Shareholders in housebuilders are basically creaming off the value of a public good in the value of the planning permission granted.

[brucie5] 08/9/2021 10:07

Political or economic/cyclical? I don't think you get that kind of dividend without some perceived risk, which I have taken as cyclical - boom/bust. But we need so many houses...

Care to expand - either here or on the PSN thread?

It's in a very recent downtrend btw, below the 200sma, so you're probably well advised to watch and wait.

[rcturner2] 08/9/2021 10:01

I have been watching PSN for a while and there are many things that are attractive about the company, but there is significant political risk associated with housebuilders that puts me off.

[brucie5] 08/9/2021 09:42

Any of you income seekers taken a look at PSN recently, as it retraces. On stock it has a dividend 8.5%, bit that's along with many other quality metrics, including the 'screen of screens'. Chartwise, it looks a bit weak, but that's a stonking dividend, if sustainable.

As for TCAP, now the 1.80 support has gone, I'd be inclined to wait and see what sort of discount the market will now apply to the dividend. Intuitively, and from my experience, shares can move quite quickly up or down the £1-2 corridor while looking for new levels of support/resistance, so that's what I'd be looking to happen now.

[hatfullofsky] 08/9/2021 09:34

Now below placing price on a $427m raise

Net Debt £241 inc £286 lease obligations, Debt £865m Cash £880

Crypto Launch in H2, significant opportunity.

It's a recovery play for me and I'm positioned accordingly

[bluemango] 08/9/2021 08:13

Thanks.

Another difference that can alter one's perspective is capital vs income. Because I'm here for income, the only relevant question for me is, looking ahead, are the prospects for income likely to get better or worse? Because my view is that the low point for income is probably already here and it is likely to improve over time, I'm prepared to stick with it. The share price is relatively immaterial in that process (although if I'm right, that should also recover).

[rcturner2] 08/9/2021 08:06

bluemango, no problem there is always more than one view on every stock and even terrible companies can become a recovery play at some point.

You can see a pattern emerging across several companies now for example CMCX where there is a clear drop in market activity which may just be seasonal or may be a more fundamental post covid drop. IG are to report soon and their update will be interesting.

[bluemango] 08/9/2021 08:00

RCT - I've got a lot of time for you and have no wish to get into a pointless argument. Yes the results were disappointing but that's not the whole story.

I guess we all have different time horizons and tolerance/patience. My own view is the LiquidNet acquisition was a good one (albeit somewhat pricey!) and will take a only a short while longer to bed in and bring benefits in margins/profitability. Other than that, I see the reduced yield here as still good enough to limit further downside but at the end of the day I'm not going to second guess the market and will give management here the benefit of the doubt.