Tp Icap Share Discussion Threads

[bluemango] 26/7/2021 11:19

Market will tend to reserve judgment until they actually see the dividend restored.

Expectation is not the same as confirmation ...

[davwal] 26/7/2021 11:15

It was a one-off reduction to pay for Liquidnet. The share price rose to 250 after that announcement, so I don't see that as the reason.

[creditcrunchies] 26/7/2021 08:36

it's paying the price for slashing its dividend as much as it did, over the years I've held a fair few of decent divi paying stocks so when you see a cut it's best to jump ship (which I did). The cut on this stock was huge you could tell it would get hit.

[coxsmn] 23/7/2021 14:49

Sp is below the March 2020 crash

[bluemango] 21/7/2021 18:31

Yes, just confirming that others are backing that up on other bulletin boards.

[elsa7878] 21/7/2021 18:22

Thought I had posted that yesterday....

[bluemango] 21/7/2021 17:18

This was posted just under an hour ago over on LSE:

"I have it on very good authority that the 12% short was a booking error. i.e. there is/was no 12% short... the FCA is aware of the situation and is investigating"

[elsa7878] 20/7/2021 17:32

Apparently the FCA have been informed about the mis-reporting. Innocent mistake or manipuation?

[davwal] 20/7/2021 17:03

One wonders how the FCA managed to include a ghost short of massive magnitude in their official reporting in the first place. Checks and balances..?
The apparent short must have caused a few holders to sell up. I certainly wondered what to do - which was ultimately nothing, thank goodness.

Weird all round goings on.

[davwal] 18/7/2021 14:43

PS I only looked at the FCA official list after seeing references to the alleged short on bulletin boards and seeing nothing on Short tracker.

[bluemango] 18/7/2021 14:40

All cool, Davwal, I'm not doubting you and at least it comes up under 'historical shorts' on LSE, so you didn't dream it ...

As you say, whatever the cause, whether it was just a glitch, a clumsy finger or whatever, it's curious.

[davwal] 18/7/2021 14:33

Blue Mango, Short Tracker take the updates directly off the official FCA daily update. Last week - Thursday - the FCA spreadsheet definitely listed the 12% short, which I saw with my own eyes (at the same time ST didn't show it, hence my use of the word apparent). I've just checked the current FCA list and low n behold it's not there. Very, very curious.

[bluemango] 18/7/2021 09:40

Two key dates coming up.

3rd August is H1 trading update, and interims are a month later on 7th September.

If the 'Phase 2 short' story ends up being just that; a story rather than reality, and if they can update the market with some positive signs including an indication of restoring the dividend, then these shares should rerate. Because with a forward yield of 7% plus, and a business that shows decent growth probabilities (helped by LiquidNet), this becomes an attractive proposition again.

That's probably enough from me for now ...

[bluemango] 17/7/2021 18:35

Noting the 50% dividend reduction last year was described as a one-off, and given the new stated policy of x2 dividend cover, the above estimates from Shore Capital give projected dividends of:

2021 - eps 27.5p, divi 13.75p, yield 7.12%
2022 - eps 29.6p, divi 14.8p, yield 7.66%.

This would see the 2022 dividend restored close to the 16.85p level attained before last year's 'one-off' reduction.

[bluemango] 17/7/2021 18:22

This was Shore Capital's view 4 months ago, dated 22 March, following the publication of TP ICAPs final results:

SHORE CAPITAL DOWNGRADES TP ICAP TO 'HOLD'
(Sharecast News) - Shore Capital has downgraded TP Icap Group to 'hold' after cutting its full-year forecasts for the broker.

Following the publication of Icap's final results last week, Shore Capital said it had downgraded forecasts for earnings per share in 2021 by 6%, to 27.5p, and by 7% in 2022 to 29.6p, which in turn reduced its fair value estimate to 255.0p from 270.0p.

The analysts also reduced their recommendation for the shares from 'buy' to 'hold'.

However, analyst Vivek Raja noted: "Following recent yield curve steepening and oil price inflation, we think the outlook has improved for the standalone business, excluding Liquidnet, after a tough year ending December 2020.

"As such, new guidance for the standalone business of low single-digit revenue growth in the current year ending December 2021 in constant currency terms struck us as cautious. We have reduced revenue estimates for the standalone business, which we now envisage producing 1.5% growth year-on-year, apparently still ahead of guidance if we factor in a forex translation headwind, currently running at an estimated 7%.

"We cut Icap to 'hold', but could take a more positive view if inflation expectations persist, and the recovery in activity levels during the early part of 2021 is sustained, providing scope for an improvement in revenue guidance and EPS upgrades after the tough first quarter comp is lagged.

[bengrizz] 17/7/2021 16:34

I know many people working there and business is shocking apparently

[creditcrunchies] 15/7/2021 15:08

Stockopedia sums up this stock quite well - Adventurous Mid-Cap 'Value Trap'

[davwal] 15/7/2021 08:39

So how does Phase 2 apparently open a 12% short position with no notification from any party - buyer or sellers?

[dhoult12] 03/7/2021 18:20

To be fair to them it's a reasonable sized company. There will be new desks launched and collapsed on a monthly basis. It's not a small start up or aim listed where each on is news worthy.. you wait till the results to see what the net impact is.

[davwal] 03/7/2021 15:50

It's good to hear this stuff is going on but I find it odd shareholders aren't updated given both items relate to the strategic shift in methodologies, and both projects are aimed at new types of business.

[coxsmn] 01/7/2021 17:30

https://www.financemagnates.com/institutional-forex/icap-announces-the-launch-of-spotmatch/