Tp Icap Share Discussion Threads

[davwal] 28/7/2021 18:14

It’ll probably take a few goes to end a day above 200, but it looks to be on the cards.

[sick of it] 28/7/2021 08:34

Does look as if market finally realised that there is a trading update due. And that this stock is oversold. May go over £2 today

[bluemango] 27/7/2021 21:05

Modest bit of upwards movement for a nice change.

Trading update due next Tuesday.

[bluemango] 26/7/2021 16:05

It dropped to around the current level soon after the dividend cut was announced back at end of September.

I think you'll see a recovery, maybe not immediate, if they can restore the dividend level.

I also think it's possible to over-analyse price movements which happen for all kinds of reasons, particularly when driven by institutional investor priorities which can change for reasons unrelated to the individual company.

[davwal] 26/7/2021 14:34

Still doesn’t explain why investors were willing to pay over 250p when the one-off dividend reduction, along with clear direction of they’re dividend formula going forward, was already published. TCAP is down for other reasons, in my view - maybe the potential legal action, which would obviously concern some potential investors. Even so, that was also known about before the decent rise.

[bluemango] 26/7/2021 12:19

Market will tend to reserve judgment until they actually see the dividend restored.

Expectation is not the same as confirmation ...

[davwal] 26/7/2021 12:15

It was a one-off reduction to pay for Liquidnet. The share price rose to 250 after that announcement, so I don't see that as the reason.

[creditcrunchies] 26/7/2021 09:36

it's paying the price for slashing its dividend as much as it did, over the years I've held a fair few of decent divi paying stocks so when you see a cut it's best to jump ship (which I did). The cut on this stock was huge you could tell it would get hit.

[coxsmn] 23/7/2021 15:49

Sp is below the March 2020 crash

[bluemango] 21/7/2021 19:31

Yes, just confirming that others are backing that up on other bulletin boards.

[elsa7878] 21/7/2021 19:22

Thought I had posted that yesterday....

[bluemango] 21/7/2021 18:18

This was posted just under an hour ago over on LSE:

"I have it on very good authority that the 12% short was a booking error. i.e. there is/was no 12% short... the FCA is aware of the situation and is investigating"

[elsa7878] 20/7/2021 18:32

Apparently the FCA have been informed about the mis-reporting. Innocent mistake or manipuation?

[davwal] 20/7/2021 18:03

One wonders how the FCA managed to include a ghost short of massive magnitude in their official reporting in the first place. Checks and balances..?
The apparent short must have caused a few holders to sell up. I certainly wondered what to do - which was ultimately nothing, thank goodness.

Weird all round goings on.

[davwal] 18/7/2021 15:43

PS I only looked at the FCA official list after seeing references to the alleged short on bulletin boards and seeing nothing on Short tracker.

[bluemango] 18/7/2021 15:40

All cool, Davwal, I'm not doubting you and at least it comes up under 'historical shorts' on LSE, so you didn't dream it ...

As you say, whatever the cause, whether it was just a glitch, a clumsy finger or whatever, it's curious.

[davwal] 18/7/2021 15:33

Blue Mango, Short Tracker take the updates directly off the official FCA daily update. Last week - Thursday - the FCA spreadsheet definitely listed the 12% short, which I saw with my own eyes (at the same time ST didn't show it, hence my use of the word apparent). I've just checked the current FCA list and low n behold it's not there. Very, very curious.

[bluemango] 18/7/2021 10:40

Two key dates coming up.

3rd August is H1 trading update, and interims are a month later on 7th September.

If the 'Phase 2 short' story ends up being just that; a story rather than reality, and if they can update the market with some positive signs including an indication of restoring the dividend, then these shares should rerate. Because with a forward yield of 7% plus, and a business that shows decent growth probabilities (helped by LiquidNet), this becomes an attractive proposition again.

That's probably enough from me for now ...

[bluemango] 17/7/2021 19:35

Noting the 50% dividend reduction last year was described as a one-off, and given the new stated policy of x2 dividend cover, the above estimates from Shore Capital give projected dividends of:

2021 - eps 27.5p, divi 13.75p, yield 7.12%
2022 - eps 29.6p, divi 14.8p, yield 7.66%.

This would see the 2022 dividend restored close to the 16.85p level attained before last year's 'one-off' reduction.

[bluemango] 17/7/2021 19:22

This was Shore Capital's view 4 months ago, dated 22 March, following the publication of TP ICAPs final results:

SHORE CAPITAL DOWNGRADES TP ICAP TO 'HOLD'
(Sharecast News) - Shore Capital has downgraded TP Icap Group to 'hold' after cutting its full-year forecasts for the broker.

Following the publication of Icap's final results last week, Shore Capital said it had downgraded forecasts for earnings per share in 2021 by 6%, to 27.5p, and by 7% in 2022 to 29.6p, which in turn reduced its fair value estimate to 255.0p from 270.0p.

The analysts also reduced their recommendation for the shares from 'buy' to 'hold'.

However, analyst Vivek Raja noted: "Following recent yield curve steepening and oil price inflation, we think the outlook has improved for the standalone business, excluding Liquidnet, after a tough year ending December 2020.

"As such, new guidance for the standalone business of low single-digit revenue growth in the current year ending December 2021 in constant currency terms struck us as cautious. We have reduced revenue estimates for the standalone business, which we now envisage producing 1.5% growth year-on-year, apparently still ahead of guidance if we factor in a forex translation headwind, currently running at an estimated 7%.

"We cut Icap to 'hold', but could take a more positive view if inflation expectations persist, and the recovery in activity levels during the early part of 2021 is sustained, providing scope for an improvement in revenue guidance and EPS upgrades after the tough first quarter comp is lagged.

[bengrizz] 17/7/2021 17:34

I know many people working there and business is shocking apparently

[creditcrunchies] 15/7/2021 16:08

Stockopedia sums up this stock quite well - Adventurous Mid-Cap 'Value Trap'