Tp Icap Share Discussion Threads

[brucie5] 08/9/2021 10:42

Any of you income seekers taken a look at PSN recently, as it retraces. On stock it has a dividend 8.5%, bit that's along with many other quality metrics, including the 'screen of screens'. Chartwise, it looks a bit weak, but that's a stonking dividend, if sustainable.

As for TCAP, now the 1.80 support has gone, I'd be inclined to wait and see what sort of discount the market will now apply to the dividend. Intuitively, and from my experience, shares can move quite quickly up or down the £1-2 corridor while looking for new levels of support/resistance, so that's what I'd be looking to happen now.

[hatfullofsky] 08/9/2021 10:34

Now below placing price on a $427m raise

Net Debt £241 inc £286 lease obligations, Debt £865m Cash £880

Crypto Launch in H2, significant opportunity.

It's a recovery play for me and I'm positioned accordingly

[bluemango] 08/9/2021 09:13

Thanks.

Another difference that can alter one's perspective is capital vs income. Because I'm here for income, the only relevant question for me is, looking ahead, are the prospects for income likely to get better or worse? Because my view is that the low point for income is probably already here and it is likely to improve over time, I'm prepared to stick with it. The share price is relatively immaterial in that process (although if I'm right, that should also recover).

[rcturner2] 08/9/2021 09:06

bluemango, no problem there is always more than one view on every stock and even terrible companies can become a recovery play at some point.

You can see a pattern emerging across several companies now for example CMCX where there is a clear drop in market activity which may just be seasonal or may be a more fundamental post covid drop. IG are to report soon and their update will be interesting.

[bluemango] 08/9/2021 09:00

RCT - I've got a lot of time for you and have no wish to get into a pointless argument. Yes the results were disappointing but that's not the whole story.

I guess we all have different time horizons and tolerance/patience. My own view is the LiquidNet acquisition was a good one (albeit somewhat pricey!) and will take a only a short while longer to bed in and bring benefits in margins/profitability. Other than that, I see the reduced yield here as still good enough to limit further downside but at the end of the day I'm not going to second guess the market and will give management here the benefit of the doubt.

[rcturner2] 08/9/2021 08:47

It is like football fans who defend their team no matter what. Some people when they buy a share they lose all objectivity and all news is good news. Well that statement yesterday was not good news. Revenue decline + margin decline is bad news. Why do people hold on to shares in companies that are doing badly? Isn't the whole point of investing to buy shares in companies that are doing well?

[spectoacc] 08/9/2021 08:42

Come on @RCTurner2 - tell us what you really think :))

Thanks for the many posters on here, both bull & bear - has kept me out of what would have been a loser.

Get the impression the EU has stymied TCAP's business model - and hard to tell how temporary that is.

[daemonfunds] 07/9/2021 20:26

@coxsmn - agreed. nothing here changes from the trading statement where a hit was already seen. they have a couple of growth options as you point out, plus cost savings to achieve. management have a huge task in front of them. keep an eagle eye on their execution over the next six months.

[coxsmn] 07/9/2021 18:18

Were you not expecting revenue to be down compared to the 'exceptional' last year and from the guidance given in the recent trading statement.With the liquid acquisition, crypto currency coming late this year and cash reinvestment in the business the trajectory is firmly set on future growth.In the meantime collect the dividend.

[rcturner2] 07/9/2021 17:46

I sold mine at 195p timed dead on 8.00. With an RNS like that I am on my broker site ready as soon as the market opens.

[coxsmn] 07/9/2021 17:35

I always think it strange why people sell when a share price is low but buy when its high.

[rcturner2] 07/9/2021 14:49

Exactly, there are much better companies such as LGEN paying much more secure dividends.

[brucie5] 07/9/2021 13:20

You might be lucky at this rate. So long as they return a decent amount of their cash to shareholders, there will be a floor at some point. Just a case of what discount applies. Anything under 7% may not be enough for the market, when you can get quality insurers giving that.

[rcturner2] 07/9/2021 12:51

I would probably buy back in if it went to 160p.

[brucie5] 07/9/2021 12:48

I'm out. Just got 1.79, so I expect it'll bounce back this evening.
;(

[tdor] 07/9/2021 11:49

Same here. And putting in a buy order @ 1.67 just in case people sell it that low. The dollar might remain an issue moving forward. On the other hand, I can imagine high(er) volatility / volumes - which is what they need - over the next 12 - 18 months. A nice hedge, especially at current valuation, for my portfolio.

[bluemango] 07/9/2021 11:19

Fwiw I'm sticking with them. I guess it's a subjective view as to whether they can deliver the planned cost synergies and go on to recover earnings & dividend to close to their former level.

"While trading conditions have continued to be challenging during the first half of 2021, we have made progress on executing our growth strategy which will transform our company to deliver sustainable earnings term growth over the medium term"

[dhoult12] 07/9/2021 10:39

Sold out this morning. Basis for improvement seems to be "cost synergies" fro. liquidnet acquisition.. which given "cost synergies" for ICAP voice brokers didn't exist despite all the waffle at the time and it's the same management doing this one.. don't have much confidence they can pull it off. Add in existing voice brokerage is declining and not ideal.

Good luck all who remain!

[rcturner2] 07/9/2021 10:04

They are committed to paying approx half the basic earnings as the dividend. 10p basic and 4p dividend in the interims. Final could easily be another 4p or maybe 6p.

But the fact is that the dividend is obscuring the fact that the company is simply not performing that well.

[bluemango] 07/9/2021 09:56

#400 Correct, which would suggest there shouldn't be much further to fall. But I'm not surprised at the drop, there's many assumptions in that 6.6% yield and those results were disappointing.

[brucie5] 07/9/2021 09:56

Thanks for the above. Still seems to bouncing off the bottom on a 2 year view, with 1.80 as support. Maybe this is already discounted? But we'll see.

[coxsmn] 07/9/2021 09:52

and 6.6% yield based on current sp

[bluemango] 07/9/2021 09:45

On that basis, a final div of 8p would give full year 12p, slightly below Shore Capital's estimate of 13.75p FY 2021.