Taylor Wimpey Share Discussion Threads

[danvandan] 25/11/2024 09:35

pigsear much in evidence on this board over the weekend. Funny, I thought people only interested in the 'long-term' didn't fret about every penny the share price moved.

Perhaps it's the thought of an emergency cash raise. They've done it quite recently, and as kreature's broken calculator points out, TW would now have net debt if they hadn't raised £500m in 2021. Could be time to spring another surprise on the market.

[kreature] 25/11/2024 09:04

Imv Huge test to see if share price holds above 130, or confirms the path to sub a quid

[jugears] 25/11/2024 07:44

Tw raised cash to buy cheap land they now have a very valuable forward land bank which as I said is worth far far more than cash in the bank & will grow much faster than cash! Raising 500 million when it did was an extremely good move IMEO. I realise that some posters on sees a companies performance by how much cash it has in the bank & over look the huge land bank value which is worth substantially more than it was 2/3/4 years ago. Sadly they don't make land like they used to!!!!, but as you have multiple user names Brenda I'm afraid it's taty by your filtered.

[jugears] 25/11/2024 07:38

Tw raised cash to buy cheap land they now have a very valuable forward land bank which I said is worth far far more than cash in the bank & will grow much faster than cash! Raising 500 million when it did was an extremely good move IMEO.

[brenman] 25/11/2024 00:04

jugears, I'm going to assume you're trying to be clever with your argument about falling sales. Give Wimps a pat on the back for not having an overhang, but just because they only built 10,000 houses and sold them, doesn't alter the fact that they used to sell 15,000 houses a year. 10,000 is less than 15,000. How much less? A third less.

Historically 40% of their buyers have been first time buyers, so just because some people with houses can afford to buy a slgihtly bigger one, that doesn't alter the fact that a big part of TW's market can't afford to get on the ladder now. They recognised interest rate risk in every annual report for years. Their business has got a lot smaller. How much smaller? A third smaller. How is it a third smaller? 10,000 is only two thirds of 15,000.

Whatever you have done with houses is not of much use to the TW shareprice. Estate agent expectations? I've never met one who ever said the market is going to tank. Not really in their interests, is it? Housing crashes? There's only been one in the last 30 years and that was after 2008. TW had a cash raise at the beginning of the pandemic and raised £500m. They don't need much more to go wrong to need another one. Good luck this week on the market. Writing long posts on here won't make any difference to prices but maybe it helps to get things off your chest.

[beckers2008] 24/11/2024 23:46

Jugs,

The trolls don't research insofar as the number of FTB's is at it's highest percentage of sales for years.

Now when is this uk house price crash coming?
Not for the last 6 years, lol, just lol!

[jugears] 24/11/2024 22:48

Becks, I think what most people on here fail to realise, is the fact that people can actually still afford to buy houses & the absolute huge shortage of houses in this country & the fact that Tw had over a 1 billion pound debt not caused by any housing slump or the financial crisis & that the company increased profits & reduced debt from year 1 & by year 3 was paying a special divided,my entire property portfolio has risen in value by 7% in the last 12 months & I can't see any reason for them not to increase by similar next year, although to be pessimistic I will.say 5%, I expect & see know reason whatsoever why the land I own won't continue to double in value every 10 years, unless we are going to build mega factories that build land? The world wants efficien clean energy we need to build wind & solar farms, we also have large enterprises wanting to buy up land to off set carbon footprint
on top of this we also want to build houses, the demand on land has never been so great, 15 years ago land was 10 to a penny, few windmills, no solar farms & no carbon off set how things have changed, Tw are sitting on an astronomical rising asset, far better than cash sitting idle in the bank in the bank, As long as Tw are ticking over why rush to build on land that is increasing in Value exponentially?

[brenman] 24/11/2024 22:23

25% fall from the summer peak means this could bounce for a few days, maybe even weeks, but maybe not. Depends on market sentiment. The drop in houseprices last month argues against it. If mortgages were affordable, there wouldn't have been a £5k drop in one month. Comparing 2007 with now is a specious argument. 16 years of zero interest and a decade of help to buy have pushed prices beyond the reach of first time buyers. It'll take more than a decade for that to unwind. Medium term, TW is not in a great place and the tone of their announcements suggest they know it. All the housebuilders have been hanging their hats on "faster planning consent" as though that will make a difference to anything. Volume is missing from the market, plain and simple. Government noise about building lots of houses is being seen for what it is. Just noise.

[beckers2008] 24/11/2024 21:55

Jugs,

The house price peak of August 2007 saw mortgage interest rates at a minimum of 6%. Today mortgages are more affordable than the 2007 peak.

Not sure when the UK house price is going to happen, some on here have been predicting it for over 6 years, lol, just lol!

[jugears] 24/11/2024 21:36

Sikh were they all those houses built on spec? They don't do that anymore! I Don't suppose any of those people that bought in the last 15 years were any of those that qued for 2 hours to get in the retail park today were they, the shops were rammed, just because interest rates have been low for years does not mean that you can't afford a mortgage now tbf if you took out a repayment mortgage 15years ago chances are you now have a very low mortgage or more likely none at all as most sensible people over pay anyway, then you have those that had mortgages before & are used to paying more & now you have new customers that don't know anything other than higher rates, I have no sympathy for anyone having an interest only mortgage so your point is?
All lenders should make customers pay for ppi imo!

[kreature] 24/11/2024 20:23

“ Fortunately for homeowners these days, the lenders are required to give the homeowners more flexibility and longer to resolve any debt before taking legal action. ”

Um, so in a mass mortgage holder default situation, how would that situation leave the lender if the lender can’t even get hold of the houses promptly to balance the books ? Have the lenders stress tested themselves?

[sikhthetech] 24/11/2024 19:56

Lefrene,

Absolutely, a lot of new build got badly hit in previous crashes. Not just in the 1990s but also during GFC.

In the 1990s, homeowners and potential homebuyers were used to higher interest rates. 5% to 10% wasn't uncommon.
Too many homeowners now bought over the past 15years when rates have been rock bottom. They're not used to seeing higher rates.

Plus in the 1990s it was common for the mortgages to be granted on 1 person's salary, so there was headroom if mortgages rates rose, as the other person could contribute.

Nowadays mortgages are awarded based on 2 person's salary. If rates rise at similar rates to 1990s, then there's little or no headroom, leading to severe mortgage debt.

Fortunately for homeowners these days, the lenders are required to give the homeowners more flexibility and longer to resolve any debt before taking legal action. This only builds up debt.

[kreature] 24/11/2024 19:20

A lot of buyers too embarrassed or too proud to ask for a discount.

Another top up opportunity tomorrow jugs ?

[jugears] 24/11/2024 19:15

Sikh I bet nearly every house sells for a different price to the asking price just like all second hand cars.
£1.50 by Christmas?

[lefrene] 24/11/2024 16:45

In the crash of the 90's new builds got badly hit, mostly because the loans were 'soft' loans via the builders lenders. Hence in the fomo of 88 and 89, many people paid way over the true value. The same thing will have been happening in recent times, although this time there's no obvious credit drought trigger as there was in mid 88

[jugears] 24/11/2024 15:13

Just like your Luton sample eh sicky?? Mind you there is a terraced house in Chesterfield for 10k at auction, you just need the other 100k to rebuild it lol.

[sikhthetech] 24/11/2024 14:55

Asking prices, sold prices...


The actual sold prices are usually lower than the asking prices, as buyers make offers.

Recently, one of my friends bought a flat lower than the price it sold for during GFC, over 15years ago!!! Didn't need work and he has already moved in.

Affordability is still a major problem. Look at CRST's recent TU.


sikhthetech - 07 Oct 2022 - 14:31:19 - 10336 of 13726
During GFC I predicted 40% falls in property prices, peak to trough, in some areas. Asking prices fall the biggest amount. New builds usually command a premium which would be significantly reduced or disappear in a housing crash.
I'm expecting similar this time.

[jugears] 24/11/2024 14:26

Bpc10, the share price is currently worth a minimum 1.50, IMEO, Tw like All House builders will be ramping up production next.Imeo interset rates will be falling a lot quicker than is predicted, there is certainly no justification for these to be amy lower than they are know! Always do your own research but the UK needs houses there are only a handfull of house builders that can build volume homes, the housing crisis is escalating daily, not all people need mortgages to buy homes, land is in extremely short supply, Tw has a large extremely valuable land bank & well placed for a good long term recovery.

[danvandan] 23/11/2024 16:37

TW's shareprice is likely to go a lot lower. Management here is currently managing decline and it could be years before the market picks up again. The sector's fundamentals have shifted in a big way; interest rates are returning to their long-run average at 5% or higher and we have a govt which is not going to subsidise house-buying for the benefit of house-builders. Housing is a hugely inflated asset bubble, priced way beyond the realistic means of working people because of years of zero-interest loans and badly conceived govt subsidies. An average house is at least £100,000 over-priced and it will take years for wage inflation to bridge this affordability gap.

On top of this, every cost area is rising for builders; materials, labour, taxation and new-build legislative standards. Every revenue area is being depressed; house prices are falling and it is only a matter of time before lease-hold for houses (nothing more than a scam) and onerous estate charges are removed/reduced by government. In short, we are seeing a slow systemic change taking place which will strangle profits for housebuilders for the foreseeable future.

Mid-2023 the market recognised the dire situation for housebuilders and priced TW at £1. Since then, financial metrics have gone lower for the business (profit and cash in particular). My guess is that the share price will drop significantly past this, especially if and when land values begin to drop. Some people cannot imagine such a situation because land has risen reliably for decades, but we are in a unique situation; the UK has effectively expelled hundreds of thousands of Europeans through Brexit, and population growth has stalled; in two decades the UK birth rate has fallen way below replacement levels. Local authorities are planning to close and consolidate schools because of a shrinking population. Nationally, hundreds of thousands of properties are currently empty; core drivers of housing need are diminishing.

Because of the factors above, house-prices and demand can only be driven one way. My guess is that TW's share price could fall dramatically as this picture becomes more obvious to the market. Already, TW's financial base has been quickly hollowed out through excessive dividend payout. Forecast 'operational' profit is estimated at £400m (declining heavily for a third straight year) but the amount converted to cash will be much lower and will not even cover the current dividend. TW will have to sell assets to generate cash and/or reduce the dividend, which will mean a major change of policy (currently, dividend payout is set at 7.5% of the company's 'value'). Previously, the share price here has been as low as 30p. I see no reason why TW's shareprice shouldn't get to that level again.

[bpc10] 23/11/2024 14:12

How low do holders see these shares going before they bounce?

[kreature] 22/11/2024 21:26

Maybe change your password then

[lefrene] 22/11/2024 18:59

That's very wierd something I didn't write appeared under my tag! I've just deleted it.