Taylor Wimpey Share Discussion Threads

[danvandan] 18/11/2024 15:31

Property asking prices fall more than £5,000 on average as Budget jitters hit the market.



Property asking prices fell by more than £5,000 on average this month, according to Rightmove.

The typical newly-listed home fell in price by 1.4 per cent in November, an average of £5,366, the property website revealed.

The fall represents a bigger drop than normal at this time of year, which Rightmove attributed to pre- and post-Budget jitters.

[danvandan] 18/11/2024 15:22

And berk2008, how come you're so silent about my main question - how're you liking the chart? 128p. No support in sight now... Winter is coming.

Btw, your claim about having 'sold' TW doesn't feel real. If you've got no interest here, why're you wasting your time posting your stupid messages on this board? And if you have truly sold, I presume you agree with the bears that this is going down.

[danvandan] 18/11/2024 15:19

ummm... berk2008, I did explain to you several times that I was building a short position and my average price is much higher than your claim. Despite that, you continue to lie. That's fine. As sikh has pointed out, you're a bullsh1tter, and I'm used to seeing your sort on advfn. I've been in the money for a long while now.

Regarding a 'correct' call, I think even you will eventually have to admit to yourself that I, sikh, 'kreature' and others have called this correctly this year. The fundamentals have been against TW in a very obvious way all year and it was only irrational exuberance from the market, reacting to the new government's talk about more houses, that pushed the share price higher for a short period.

[sikhthetech] 18/11/2024 15:13

UH,

"If you buy TW and hold for the next 20+ years you will probably do OK."

Not always. Look at the previous sps I posted nearly 2 years ago

However, even those who have held on for a 16years haven't done so well.

Shorting, trading on the way up, then shorting have done significantly better.

As I posted over 18months ago, the current share price is around same price it was 16years ago!!!

So long term holders are back to where the share price was in Aug 2008.



sikhthetech - 01 Mar 2023 - 19:53:38 - 4124 of 4240
This is what happened to PSN/TW share price during the GFC 15yrs ago.

If the housing market follows similar pattern then expect the HB share price to drop again.

The share price shown here are just a guide showing how HB share price don't just fall the once.

Budget in 2 weeks and BoE interest rate decision week after.
Help to Buy ending is the long term concern.

From 2007 to 2008 - GFC

Psn
05/07 1400p
05/08 600p
12/08 200p

TW
05/07 500p
05/08 125p
12/08 8p

[danvandan] 18/11/2024 15:10

Good point hound, but buy at what price? berk2008 claims to have bought at 86p, and pigsear claims to have bought at 32p, so presumably a buy at 30p might be a good idea?

[beckers2008] 18/11/2024 15:09

DvD,

I qoute you...

'As for a Q4 interest rate cut - it's looking less and less likely'

Be careful, you haven't made a correct call yet, lol!
Where as I averaged at £1.03 and sold at £1.36 plus 3 x 9% yield dividend payments.

Hopefully many took my advice and bought TW. at 86p.

You being the clueless mug-punter went short at £1.335 and witnessed the share price rocket over £1.60 smashing through your stoploss if you had one, lol!

You are relatively new to this BB and you have certainly made a fool of yourself in such a short space of time, lol, just lol!

[uhound] 18/11/2024 15:06

Hang on! If you buy TW and hold for the next 20+ years you will probably do OK.

However, you would be missing out on making a lot more money by trading the markets.

If you can't be bothered with that, then buy an index fund. It's been proven the best way for non-traders to be successful in the markets over time.

[sikhthetech] 18/11/2024 15:01

EI
"CMA doesn't get much discussion."

It does by the realists, the rampers go quiet.
Not a lot to say until all the investigations have concluded.


sikhthetech - 31 Mar 2024 - 14:48:59 - 17654 of 19695
Mentioned by Sunshine Today...

New homes poor build quality.

Others have raised concerns over poor quality new builds for a while.
Also concerns mentioned by CMA


"A Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) report, published last month, has raised concerns about the build quality of some new homes, and a petition has been set up calling for government accountability for substandard housing and infrastructure."




sikhthetech - 23 Apr 2024 - 15:24:07 - 17718 of 1965
1carus,

They are committed to returning c7.5% of NAV, which is very risky as cash will reduce quicker when the housing market is subdued and uncertainty persists. They are already reducing the number of builds.

Plus they still face a CMA investigation and could have to make more provisions if findings go against them, which I think is likely.


Once the market picks up they will need cash to increase builds, work force etc. If they have paid all their money to shareholders via a fixed dividend policy then where will they find the money?

Other builders, companies adjust their dividend policy depending on market conditions. That is the sensible way to pay dividends.

[danvandan] 18/11/2024 14:59

It seems pigsear has been stunned into silence by the relentless fall here. Usually by now, he's posted a massive post about his grandkids and how he likes to hang around in the school playground and talk about 'house prices'. But so far today, nothing but a tiny little peep from him trying to encourage a naive poster on the other thread. Presumably he's sulking in his garden shed again. 😊

[kreature] 18/11/2024 14:54

128 to save you looking jugs. Yet another great opportunity to average down again ? 145, 133, …,,great for the 100 year plan I suppose ? May as well announce a divi cut whilst it can still be blamed on the budget ..imo …and a prudent placing ?

[essentialinvestor] 18/11/2024 14:54

Dan, thanks for that as had not seen, 0.63% short.

It's very difficult to go wrong with TW as a longer term holding,
all be it's a cyclical and can be volatile. Better as a buy and forget for most PI's.


We still have the CMA to report on the new investigation opened back in Feb, March time.

That does not get much discussion

[sikhthetech] 18/11/2024 14:52

DVD,

If it looks like a BSer, talks like a BSer then it is a BSer.


Jugears & Becky are clueless on how housing market, HBs and how economic/political, company/sector newsflow impacts the HBs.

Good for entertainment though, chuckle sisters.

[danvandan] 18/11/2024 14:48

Btw, Point72 Europe (hedge fund) opened a short position on TW last week. It's taken a while but the fundamentals make TW a screaming short and it looks like the major funds are getting on board, so to speak.

[sikhthetech] 18/11/2024 14:48

VTY was always a higher risk, once they changed their business model.


The HBs/housing market newsflow over the past few years has been as expected. Short 2020, trade hyped shares then short again.





I'm short here from 168p for the reasons I've posted.
;-)



sikhthetech - 07 Nov 2024 - 16:41:49 - 19497 of 1969
Jugears,

GE
over - new govn

Interest rate cuts
TWO interest rate cuts - which should have provided a huge boost to HBs.
Rates will stay higher for longer. Bad for current mortgage holders coming off low interest rates.

Budget
over - little to help HBs but huge increase in taxes will impact affordability and for companies with huge labour, huge increases in costs
Budget policies are inflationary

US Election
over - Trump's policies are inflationary

PSN & TW TU
published, shows falls in sales, cash, profits.

All 'good' news in the public domain and factored into the price.
The uncertainty, how long rates will stay higher, what about the Ukraine/Middle East wars, what about inflationary pressures, how many will suffer huge increases in mortgage debt, how much will housing slowdown etc etc is not in the public domain

Yet the share price is falling.

continuing trend of declining cash, falling sales, profits...

Labour and Trump are in power for the next 4+years


It really is simple. You can ignore the facts if you wish.

[jugears] 18/11/2024 14:43

Spawns, won't effect me I didnlike their business model from the start!

[danvandan] 18/11/2024 14:42

YOU can't read or write! As for a Q4 interest rate cut - it's looking less and less likely.

But more importantly, how're you liking the chart now berk2008? Seems you're WRONG about support at 130p. And do you really think people should be holding this share now? Keep on lolling through the tears... You're a true inspiration to morons everywhere. 😊

[essentialinvestor] 18/11/2024 14:15

spawny, tbf to JUG, he highlighted the risks on Vistry a number of times, even when their share price was shooting for the starts and long before it became the 'consensus' view (to be far more cautious).

I sold in January and watched it continue to climb for months - we know what happened next.

[itisonlymoney] 18/11/2024 13:49

Lee, housebuilding might be a priority, but TW is not making big profits anymore. Plenty of homes are being built, just not so many of the 4 bedroomed type that TW sells and costs have gone up a lot.

[beckers2008] 18/11/2024 13:41

DvD,

You can't read...

Beckers2008 - 15 Nov 2024 - 08:20:32 - 19660 of 19682
£1.30, Close is strong support here.

[spawny100] 18/11/2024 13:35

Oops a lot of people thought they were smart buying VTY at the bottom after the recent plunge. Only to see it continue to plunge.

[jugears] 18/11/2024 13:30

Lee, because the markets over think!

[rwlly1] 18/11/2024 13:11

Beckers house prices have already fallen 20% after allowing for inflation, with no sign of a reversal.

[lee181067] 18/11/2024 12:31

Sorry, just trying to understand why TW has dropped so much with Labour saying house building a priority ?

[danvandan] 18/11/2024 12:18

And boom! We are through the so-called 'strong support' that berk2008 keeps on cutting and pasting about. Turns out it's not so strong after all and actually paper thin. Clear air now down to £1.

[danvandan] 18/11/2024 12:08

1carus, you are in the minority as far as dividend reinvestment is concerned. A mere £3m worth traded today so far despite £170m being paid out on Friday. Most TW holders have taken the money and many are selling the shares in anticipation of a dividend cut.