Taylor Wimpey Share Discussion Threads

[spudders] 21/11/2024 15:35

💿🟰🛎️€282; imho

[danvandan] 21/11/2024 15:14

As for 1.5 million HOMES, not necessarily houses, the govt will easily get there over five years. There are literally hundreds of UK house-builders. You continue to ignore the most obvious obstacle - houses are over-priced through years of zero interest and govt subsidy. Those days are over and they are NOT returning. The environment has fundamentally changed. TW is now stuck with an over-valued landbank, an over-promised dividend policy, a depressed low-volume market and a diminishing cash-pile. Something has to give; first and foremost it will be the shareprice and the dividend.

[danvandan] 21/11/2024 15:11

pigsear, profits are declining. Sales volume is low and TW's model demands high volume for profit. Selling prices are beginning to drop. The landbank is over valued and is only worth what TW can actually sell it for. Buy shares; that's your choice. The rest of the market is selling and people who are a lot better informed than you are shorting TW in a big way.

The worst aspect of TW's landbank over-valuation is that it makes up the major part of the company's overall valuation and they have committed to paying out 7.5% of this as a dividend. The landbank book-value estimated by TW is causing the company to hollow out its financial base to the point that it is close to being exhausted this year. They have land; soon they won't have cash. The divi policy will have to change or the business will have to write down its assets creating a paper loss. Both actions will have a dramatic impact on the shareprice.

[jugears] 21/11/2024 15:03

Sickly, Tw have a short term land bank of 79000 plots@ a conservative 100k per plot(I will let you work that out as I know how bad your maths are) then add on all the land that doesn't have planing & yes you have caught me out their haven't you, you little rascle! its more like £2.10! What a bargain.

[jugears] 21/11/2024 14:54

Sickydodiedum, Meanwhile Tw continue to build & sell houses lol oh lol, lets put things into perspective, there are at least 35 million adults in this country, Tw build circa 10k houses a year are you saying that 35 plus million people now can't afford a house? lets put things into perspective again, houses prices have again risen year on year, WHY? it couldn't possibly be due to supply not meeting demand could it, the average man in the street isn't paying anymore tax, the company he works for is & yes some jobs will go & some companies will go to the wall but that will not make any difference to affordability of homes, we need to build more now not next year or the year after that, by the time Labour reach half their target the uk will need another 1.5 million houses, labour have been in power 5 months in a few weeks time or just under 10% of their time in power & what have they done to ease the housing shortage or cutting waiting times on the NHS? absolutely nothing & will take years before they do.
House prices have continued to rise through the cost of living crisis & higher interest rates, what does that tell you? it tells me to buy as many shares as I can before next spring!

[danvandan] 21/11/2024 14:41

Hello beckers. Which month is 126p? You can quote me.

Also, please explain this 'mug punter' idea of yours. I've been in the money here for quite a while so I don't see your point.

Also, please explain why you're posting on here all the time when according to you, you've sold your entire TW holding. Are you merely trolling and attention seeking because you're lonely AND like to waste your time on things where you have no investment? These are simple questions which you should be able to answer. Feel free to quote me on any of this.

[sikhthetech] 21/11/2024 14:39

Jugears

"I can't believe these are below there minimum asset value which is at least £1.50?"

Can you provide evidence where that figure came from? It's exactly the same as the 150p figure you keep saying below which they are a bargain. Do you need 150p to break-even????

[essentialinvestor] 21/11/2024 14:37

LAB house building target already looking la la land, as many mentioned when it was first announced.

The last development we need is for the listed HB's to retrench and cut volume.

[beckers2008] 21/11/2024 14:32

DvD,

We all know you don't know the months of Q4, lol.

Now we all know you can't tell the time, lol!

DvD,

I qoute you...

"You're posting on an obscure chat board late in the evening"

And you replied later, you really are a clueless mug-punter, lol, just lol!

[sikhthetech] 21/11/2024 14:30

Kreature

Yes a vicious circle... Huge rise in taxes/minimum wage, business costs go up. So higher prices and/or redundancies. Interest rates have to stay higher for longer.

[danvandan] 21/11/2024 14:28

Hello beckers. Which month is 126p? You can quote me.

Also, please explain this 'mug punter' idea of yours. I've been in the money here for quite a while so I don't see your point.

Also, please explain why you're posting on here all the time when according to you, you've sold your entire TW holding. Are you merely trolling because you like to waste your time on things where you have no investment? Feel free to quote me on any of this.

[beckers2008] 21/11/2024 14:05

DvD,

I qoute you...

'As for a Q4 interest rate cut - it's looking less and less likely'

They cut in Q4!
DvD, why do you consistently prove yourself a mug-punter, lol!

I think you will find that October, November and December are all in Q4.
Am I correct yet again and you are wrong... yet again, lol, just lol!

The Bank of England (BOE) cut interest rates from 5% to 4.75% at its meeting on November 6, 2024.

I have given you a clue...
Tell me, what are the months of Q3?

[kreature] 21/11/2024 13:53

Looks to me like everyone is having to put up prices to deal with the costs of paying the mortgage or the rent……….is that a by design vicious circle ? Will it all end in designer hyper you know what, and whoops we need a digital currency?

[kreature] 21/11/2024 13:47

You guys should really watch this….

[danvandan] 21/11/2024 12:35

I doubt rates will fall uhound. It's prices that need to fall and it will have to be a substantial fall to get the market going again. That will be a chaotic situation. Slow deflation over a decade or more might be a better outcome. There's no way of knowing how it will fall out.

[uhound] 21/11/2024 12:20

Fair value is probably £1.25.

However, I'd expect further weakness overall going into 2025, with the occasional up day as people buy in what they think is a bargain.

Until mortgage rates start to fall and inflation settles, sentiment is not in TW favour.

[danvandan] 21/11/2024 12:13

Regarding net asset value, pigsear, I can't imagine why you would be inflating it to some completely made up figure, when TW's own completely made up figure is 127p. This is reliant on their estimate of land values, and the reality is that those values cannot be achieved if they HAVE to sell. As we all know, builders tend to show great figures until they suddenly go broke, like ISG recently and Carillion a few years back.

[danvandan] 21/11/2024 11:59

Yes, that last admission really does say it all; people are not asking about starter homes because the bottom row of the pyramid has been lost. It's only a matter of time before the rest of the pyramid comes down a level or two.

Btw, point72 increased its short again on TW this week. Their reportable position is now 0.74% of the shares. I wonder if Steve Cohen is reading our posts. If he'll increase it by 0.01% I'll take that as a yes. 😊

[jugears] 21/11/2024 10:36

I can't believe these are below there minimum asset value which is at least £1.50? that is excluding any profit from actually building houses,I was speaking to a friend that works for a house builder I am invested in last night, they are expecting sales to increase next year, perhaps houses are not as unaffordable as some think????, not everyone is poverty stricken & a third of buyers still pay cash a lot of people have been put off this year waiting for elections & budget.

Its all very well the government wanting 1.5 million affordable homes but who actually wants them, not enough money in them for private landlords, housing associations can't afford them & are cutting back on the number being built, private house builders will only build a small amount as not profitable enough & uk government can't afford to build them either, my estate agent friend said the other day that we get more people enquiring about family homes & property that needs renovating the he does starter homes, says it all really!

[beckers2008] 21/11/2024 09:55

K,

Not answering the question, that figures, lol!

Really, when my average was £1.03 and sold at £1.36.
How can I be bitter about making a tidy profit plus 3 div payments?

[ricardo montalban] 21/11/2024 09:44

Can’t work out how these are still over a quid, house builder outlook absolutely dire.

[kreature] 21/11/2024 08:59

Housing costs are the real reason for the increase in inflation. Not energy bills. :

[sikhthetech] 20/11/2024 23:35

EI

"Late November(ish) time tends to be a decent buying spot for
the sector, with SP's often nicely up by the following summer"

Unlike previous years, this year there's a new govn, budget which is bad for HBs, Hike in taxes which will impact affordability, prospects of interest rates staying higher for longer.

Whereas, last year's rise was to do with hyped sector due to prospects of inflation falling, interest rates falling, prospects of housing market surging.

[kreature] 20/11/2024 21:09

Maybe they should call an emergency general election for this January due to a false manifesto and a false curriculum vitae, that prob wouldn’t even pass AIM Regulation ?