Taylor Wimpey Share Discussion Threads

[jugears] 25/11/2024 12:46

The share price is currently worth a minimum 1.50, IMEO, Tw like All House builders will be ramping up production next.Imeo interset rates will be falling a lot quicker than is predicted, there is certainly no justification for these to be amy lower than they are know! Always do your own research but the UK needs houses there are only a handfull of house builders that can build volume homes, the housing crisis is escalating daily, not all people need mortgages to buy homes, land is in extremely short supply, Tw has a large extremely valuable land bank & well placed for a good long term recovery.

[jugears] 25/11/2024 12:40

Overdone & oversold UP UP UP

[danvandan] 25/11/2024 12:37

Yes, pigsear, it's up half a penny after falling 40p. Do you have any idea how desperate your 8th post today makes you look? And it's only lunchtime. You really do give yourself away all the time; so you're only interested in the long-term, right? You are a massive bullsh1tter.

[beckers2008] 25/11/2024 12:05

""DanVanDan - 20 May 2024 - 21:53:51 - 17917 of 19290
beckers, so what? Will that be relevant if the share price hits 90p in August?"" END.

Lol, just lol!

You are not credible.

[danvandan] 25/11/2024 11:52

Dunno beckers. I seem to be in the money here and you don't even have a position, according to you. Just let me read pigsear's latest long post about his very wonderful life and I'll get back to you on your silly and pointless thoughts. I think it's about now that the hairy-eared twerp will start telling us about his fascinating conversations in the playground, how the other mums all back away from him when he starts talking about house prices, and how wonderful it is being a crusty grandad with nothing to do but post on advfn all day long. He is spamming of course. I will repost today periodically.

[beckers2008] 25/11/2024 11:45

DvD,

You have made so many mistakes whilst proclaiming you made the right decision, even smug.

When challenged you find it difficult to write unemotionally which I find funny, lol!

You along with Sikhthetech, K and sT have made some decisions that only inexperienced so called investors would do...Unlike me, which I have proven.

Tell me, when is the UK house price crash going to happen, not for the last 6 years, lol!

You along with the aforementioned trolls have proven, many times over, classic mug-punters, lol, just lol!

[jugears] 25/11/2024 11:42

Icarus,if you are buying a house with an interest only mortgage & unlike you & I you don't have money invested elsewhere then it is no better than renting a property & buying a house 20 years ago at 100k would mean you still have to find perhaps 300-400k to buy the house at the end so I see no benefits to interest free mortgages, I bought a house with an endowment policy in the 80's for 60k, I stupidly sold the houses for 45k in the housing slump, luckily my endowment was worth 17k so this covered my costs, the little terraced house sold a few years ago for 300k plus, the moral of the story is I should have had a repayment mortgage as all cost were being met by student rent & I should have kept the house but at the time I had just bought a factory & another house.

[danvandan] 25/11/2024 11:40

Btw, there's very low share volume this morning and absolutely no conviction behind the small bounce. It really is beginning to look like dead-cattery. £1 by new year?

[danvandan] 25/11/2024 11:33

uhound, I think he does get it, and that's why he's posting on here all the time, trying to convince others that black is white.

What's funny is his way of undercutting his own argument at every turn. It turns out that he KNOWS there are thousands of builders building thousands of houses. As for 'not scratching the surface'? What surface is he talking about? If TW builds 10,000 a year, that's about right for their share of the market. The govt doesn't NEED them to build more. There's plenty of other builders in the market who will do that. As far as TW is concerned though, margins are being eroded because there are fewer buyers and plenty of sellers. Basically, minimal profits will ultimately mean reducing the dividend and maybe, if profits go low enough, cancelling it altogether. Reducing the dividend will reduce the share price. There is no escape.

TW management will protect the company and their jobs by raising cash if necessary, but shareholders will be paying the price of that, as they always do.

[1carus] 25/11/2024 11:26

Jugs, interest only mortgages are not as bad as you think. The main issue is people do not set up a mechanism for paying them off. I have held one at about 100k over a long period of time. I could have paid it off, but up until recent years the interest rate on it was around 2%. I could have paid it off, but the 100k in any global stocks and shares ISA has returned a compound interest of about 8% in my case. Effectively I am making 6%pa on someone else's 100K... why wouldn't I do that. Now to be fair, it is linked to an offset account and at this moment I do have cash offset against most of it as the rate is currently about 6.6%. I can't remember the point at which the ISA fund effectively paid off the loan, I think it was about year 15. I had simply saved what I should have been paying off the mortgage monthly into the ISA fund. Standard 25 year mortgage rates etc. So in my case it worked very well indeed. Actual value of the fund would pay the house off several times over now. (I am intending to pay it off over the next few years anyway, purely because I don't think we are going to see a repeat of the extremely low mortgage rates that we had had.) Unfortunately a lot of people did take out interest only mortgages and forgot that at the end of the term they have to pay the piper, the banks only start asking about proof of repayment means when there is about 5 years left on the mortgages,then things start to get a bit tricky.

[gbh2] 25/11/2024 11:25

I do much more trading these days, it keeps me busy throughout the week whether I make or lose a few quid doesn't matter.

[jugears] 25/11/2024 11:16

I still own all of mine that were purchased for 30-37p & collected all the dividends & specials as well, top stock for me.

[gbh2] 25/11/2024 11:13

It's a long time since I lost any cash on TW Jugs, it was before 2008.

I've been in profit ever since I bought a load at 28p :))

[uhound] 25/11/2024 11:10

Jugears, does not get it!

When interest rates were higher 15% house prices were lower than now. Still though unaffordable for many in some areas.

Now, house prices have risen due to many factors, however wages have not kept pace with this rise for MOST.

Other costs for households have also increased higher in comparison to wages. Fuel, Tax, Food, Utilities, etc.

Also, mortgage lenders since the credit crunch are now stricter with lending which is also an impact.

So, as we keep saying, affordability for a lot of people is the issue. Particularly the young.

They won't build what they can't sell!

[jugears] 25/11/2024 11:08

gbh2, they are planing to fast track 5000 new apprenticeships but to train them in half the time, but this will not alleviate the chronic housing shortage it won't even be the tip of the iceberg, there is not the people or materials to build anyway near the houses the government have promised, there is not enough large companies to build them either & even fewer in the private houses sector now, anyone can build a house, indeed I built a row of 5 plus others, but today you need to be very large companies if you want to build houses at affordable prices & the thousands of builders that build 1-100 houses a year are not going to scratch the surface I'm afraid, can't compete on buying power & have much higher overall costs per unit due to their small size, there is only a handful of companies the size of Wimpey that can build in large volumes
Gbh2, I can't see you losing money at that price.

[danvandan] 25/11/2024 10:43

pigsear, if you thought your shares were safe, you wouldn't be posting on here several times an hour.

Good that you understand that interest rates can go a lot higher. They probably will. You're saying that people can afford it; the market says they can't. That's why house sale volumes are so low.

Regarding the number of housebuilders; there's about 2,500 developers nationally and the sector employs about three million people. TW employs a tiny fraction of that number; 5,000 people, so less than 2%. There's plenty of people building houses.

[gbh2] 25/11/2024 10:42

Picked up 5000 this morning, even our useless engorgement must eventually realise they need to throw some cash at house builders if the want more houses building.

[jugears] 25/11/2024 10:33

I wonder how on earth we managed with 15% interest rates & they think 5% is high lol oh lol oh lol, Just because rates were low for 15 years doesn't mean people can't afford higher! Meanwhile Tw continue to build houses & sell them!, Lets be honest how many people have ever taken advice from a poster on a bulletin board? I never have or will DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH, I know most of the house builders in this country, I know who are the better managed ones(from Experience!)& I also know who is capable of building what, In the last few years since covid a lot have gone out of business, changed their business model(VTY)or merged to form what will inevitably be a smaller company, I would say capacity to build has dropped 10-15% maybe more,that is devastating for the Uk housing needs & now near on impossible to build to any government targets so IMEO my shares are very safe here now & for the long term.

[jugears] 25/11/2024 10:20

Becks, I think what most people on here fail to realise, is the fact that people can actually still afford to buy houses & the absolute huge shortage of houses in this country & the fact that Tw had over a 1 billion pound debt not caused by any housing slump or the financial crisis & that the company increased profits & reduced debt from year 1 & by year 3 was paying a special divided,my entire property portfolio has risen in value by 7% in the last 12 months & I can't see any reason for them not to increase by similar next year, although to be pessimistic I will.say 5%, I expect & see know reason whatsoever why the land I own won't continue to double in value every 10 years, unless we are going to build mega factories that build land? The world wants efficien clean energy we need to build wind & solar farms, we also have large enterprises wanting to buy up land to off set carbon footprint
on top of this we also want to build houses, the demand on land has never been so great, 15 years ago land was 10 to a penny, few windmills, no solar farms & no carbon off set how things have changed, Tw are sitting on an astronomical rising asset, far better than cash sitting idle in the bank in the bank, As long as Tw are ticking over why rush to build on land that is increasing in Value exponentially?

[danvandan] 25/11/2024 09:38

TW's shareprice is likely to go a lot lower. Management here is currently managing decline and it could be years before the market picks up again. The sector's fundamentals have shifted in a big way; interest rates are returning to their long-run average at 5% or higher and we have a govt which is not going to subsidise house-buying for the benefit of house-builders. Housing is a hugely inflated asset bubble, priced way beyond the realistic means of working people because of years of zero-interest loans and badly conceived govt subsidies. An average house is at least £100,000 over-priced and it will take years for wage inflation to bridge this affordability gap.

On top of this, every cost area is rising for builders; materials, labour, taxation and new-build legislative standards. Every revenue area is being depressed; house prices are falling and it is only a matter of time before lease-hold for houses (nothing more than a scam) and onerous estate charges are removed/reduced by government. In short, we are seeing a slow systemic change taking place which will strangle profits for housebuilders for the foreseeable future.

Mid-2023 the market recognised the dire situation for housebuilders and priced TW at £1. Since then, financial metrics have gone lower for the business (profit and cash in particular). My guess is that the share price will drop significantly past this, especially if and when land values begin to drop. Some people cannot imagine such a situation because land has risen reliably for decades, but we are in a unique situation; the UK has expelled literally millions of Europeans through Brexit, and population growth has stalled; in two decades the UK birth rate has fallen way below replacement levels. Local authorities are planning to close and consolidate schools because of a shrinking population. Nationally, hundreds of thousands of properties are currently empty; core drivers of housing need are diminishing.

Because of the factors above, house-prices and demand can only be driven one way. My guess is that TW's share price could fall dramatically as this picture becomes more obvious to the market. Already, TW's financial base has been quickly hollowed out through excessive dividend payout. Forecast 'operational' profit is estimated at £400m (declining heavily for a third straight year) but the amount converted to cash will be much lower and will not even cover the current dividend. TW will have to sell assets to generate cash and/or reduce the dividend, which will mean a major change of policy (currently, dividend payout is set at 7.5% of the company's 'value'). Previously, the share price here has been as low as 30p. I see no reason why TW's shareprice shouldn't get to that level again.