Taylor Wimpey Share Discussion Threads

[wfl1970] 11/6/2021 19:12

Now that does deserve a yawn... ;))

[jugears] 11/6/2021 17:45

Current house prices are being driven by those that have money, even if there is a housing market slump or correction ,house will still be sold.Rember Tw share price fell due to incurring high debt due to the purchase of Taylor Woodrow homes, the share price only fell as debt ridden compaines were deemed unsafe investments, excluding debt Tw contiued to make & increase profits throughout the financial crisis there was no obvious reason that there share price fell to circa 4p & no reason why they fell to 98p last year other than the pure greed of the mm's ,What we really need now is a slow down in the housing market to help increase suppliers of all building materials because if current shortages continue then far fewer houses will be built Imo pushing prices even further as demand will continue to outstrip supply & push prices even higher. We are in a very strange situation at the moment where under normal circumstances history should be repeating it self & the housing cycle should be peaking, but demand for houses has never been so great & interest rates wont be going up anytime soon because the Government will want to recoup there covid losses as quickly as possible & will not want to jeopardise this, also unusually inflation is increasing in all countries not just here, History always repeats itself & every time house price fall within ten years they have virtually doubled again, it may be just my way of thinking but I have never seen a housing slump start without a recession & I have never seen either start with low interest rates ? With the economy picking up pace faster that most expected & demand for houses so great,I just cant see house prices falling for a while yet, but what ever happens I am more than confident that Tw will.weather any storm, oh but then it already has, the financial crisis, 9/11, Brexit turmoil, Elections, Covid, etc etc yep there is no share I would rather be in & having made record profit from my even if we have a few bounces on the way company , property & investment portfolio in the last year means I have plenty to invest should the markets turn. I still see huge future potential here & am more than happy to hold on to these until then, for over forty years I have proved to my self that long term holding is the key to making a fortune from the stock market, some shares drift for years & then take off, some just plod slowly & some lift off from the word go but overall I would like to bet that I have made more money this way than if I had tried to second guess the markets or tried day trading other than the few times I have. I learnt a long time ago that shares go up & down , profits go up & down The country goes in & out of recession but long term every thing goes up ! 25 years ago I purchased my first industrial unit for 30k in that time price have gone up & down seemingly peeking @ 80k for 5 years, now it is worth 180k & its the same with all the other properties & land I have bough over the years, even if house prices fall now for a few years people do not loose out when selling (unless they have negative equity & have to sell) because there next property up the ladder have a bigger discount to the one they have sold & cheaper houses help first time buyers (not that I would call any house over 100k affordable!) & so the cycle begins again , demand increases & prices go up, Its one very vicious circle i'm afraid & its not going to change in mine or my children's life time. The sooner the market peaks the sooner the cycle starts again. My question is though are houses really out of reach to first time buyers, a lot off people have become very savey savers during lock down, a young member of my staff & his partner have managed to save over 20k in the the last year just by not going out as much & shopping round on the internet for purchases, its easy if you try!!!

[imastu pidgitaswell] 11/6/2021 16:55

Yes, you were saying that at 98p as well, weren't you?

[sikhthetech] 11/6/2021 16:54

Once International property prices crash in major economies, it would severely investment here. Anybody who says otherwise hasn't got a clue as to how the investments work. The number of foreign investors here will reduce.

[imastu pidgitaswell] 11/6/2021 16:54

Do you remember what happened on 9th November? What did you do then? And in the intervening months when this rose?

[sunshine today] 11/6/2021 16:43

That chart does not lie. If nothing else, keep an eye to see if it bounces back next month. As a rule, higher prices eventually hit demand. Cheap money just might end, soon.

[imastu pidgitaswell] 11/6/2021 16:25

Right. Do you remember what happened on 9th November? What did you do then? And in the intervening months when this rose?

[sunshine today] 11/6/2021 16:24

If chart 4 is not telling you what’s on the cards here, you might want to see a doctor

[sunshine today] 11/6/2021 16:23

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/hangover-arrives-explosive-inflation-leads-record-collapse-home-car-purchase-plans

[sunshine today] 11/6/2021 16:21

USA homebuyers confidence slumps in May. This confirms what we noted earlier, namely a record divergence between crashing homebuyer confidence (due to record home prices) and soaring homebuilder confidence (also due to record home prices). Guess which one will matter in the end.

[gbh2] 11/6/2021 14:36

KURDMAM36 11 Jun '21 - 14:22 - 3956 of 3956 (Filtered) for being a ignorant tw*t!

[essentialinvestor] 11/6/2021 13:24

WFL, that's HMG policy, not the fault of the house builders.

[jugears] 11/6/2021 13:16

Yaaaaaaaawn

[wfl1970] 11/6/2021 13:00

HTB being available to all, has only made the problem worse for FTB.

[sikhthetech] 11/6/2021 11:23

Karv1, "more importantly, the lower-end paid workers need to be able to buy ie the first-time buyers or the housing chain will stall." That's the point about Help to buy scheme. Now the scheme is for first time buyers only. Plus there are regional price caps. So if house prices continue to rise strongly, they are more likely to exceed the ceiling of the price cap. Therefore, ftb won't be able to buy.

[jugears] 11/6/2021 10:04

Karv1, In reality uk plc have not had to borrow millions, All of the sectors that I supply to a part from retail & leisure have had an extremely busy & profitable time in the last 12 months! unfortunately there are plenty of cash buyers for houses & that is what will push prices up, This country doesn't have the ability to build more houses to meet demand & I can see prices going a lot higher before they stabilise, & I think Stabilise is more likely than a housing market crash.

[karv1] 11/6/2021 09:34

I agree the future looks bright for housebuilders with an endless shortage of housing stock and an ever-growing population.. I can not see interest rates going up by much in the near term as many of the UK companies have had to borrow so much that higher interest rates would cause UK plc to go bust even if inflation notches upwards. On the other hand, I think a 25 to 50% rise in house price will not happen, we will hit a balance between the shortage of houses and the affordability of buyers, currently, the average house is around 260k, the average joe blogs earn 30k x 5 150k max borrowing x2 300k max for Mr/Mrs average, not counting part-time workers for families. house prices may go up but I feel we will hit a ceiling point soon unless the BOE lightens up the lending criteria. more importantly, the lower-end paid workers need to be able to buy ie the first-time buyers or the housing chain will stall.

[jugears] 10/6/2021 21:53

With a substantial holding in Tw I am.happy to continue building my investment with cheap shares as dividends, Tw have a very healthy order book long past stamp duty holiday ending ,which confirms my view that people want to.buy houses know matter what,combined with very low interest rates that are very unlikely to increase for at least 2 years & the biggest under supply of houses for decades, as for cladding local councils pass very detailed planning applications if they have any doubts about a material being used then the contractor would be asked to change the spec all hb's will have done due diligence & therefore the manufacture should be funding any replacement failing this it should be local councils,my conversations with people at Tw indicate that there is know onus on them.to.replace it other than a good will gesture, as for leasehold if people are to thick to understand the term l leashold & even thicker not to look up words they dont understand in the dictionary then more fool them,this is what happens when people are in a rush to buy the very few houses coming to the market. unless house building can double production overnight then I just cant see house prices falling & can see them increasing in value between 25-50% over the next 5 years easily.

[peteret] 10/6/2021 20:28

Half year results 4th August.I bet the share price will be back in the high 1.70sBefore then.Bought some more today.

[sikhthetech] 10/6/2021 20:03

Jugears "Go away in May & come back on St ledgers day, been the same every year for the last 40 years" If you believed that and the share price was going to drift then why did you buy only couple weeks ago??? It's contradictory views. JUGEARS1 Jun '21 - 15:49 - 3904 of 3945 That little purchase I made last week is starting look healthy & very pleased with those Tullow oil share I purchased you can't beat long term holding!

[gaygay3] 10/6/2021 19:58

up10 we’re have you been for the last few months