Taylor Wimpey Share Discussion Threads

[beckers2008] 13/12/2024 18:26

"Beckers2008 - 13 Aug 2024 - 22:42:14 - 18905 of 20233
Sikhthetech,

I qoute you...
"My own opinions based on my experience and research" END.
Lol!

Now, when is your each and every year's (for the last 6 years) house price crash gonna happen?
Lol, just lol!

You are not credible.


"Beckers2008 - 11 Aug 2024 - 19:39:53 - 18891 of 18905
Sikhthetech,

I qoute you...

""I thought you liked dJugears/Becky. But agree they do whinge a lot, helps to divert away being wrong all the time.
lol"" END.

I have been wrong all the time buying at 86p?
Wrong to make a profit?

[kreature] 13/12/2024 17:43

I see VTY been buying hutch loads of shares to cancel, yet share price still down

[kreature] 13/12/2024 17:37

SlugEars, I guess 124 was the Christmas cheer ? Agent rang, wants me to reduce asking price by 5% on Jan 1st. Such is the strength of the housing market

[sunshine today] 13/12/2024 17:35

U.K. 10 Year Gilt
WATCH
LIST
Last Updated: Dec 13, 2024 5:01 p.m. GMT
%
4.419
Up 0.054

All hell breaking loose as predicted.

No one wants to lend

Ten year mortgages up within the week.

[sikhthetech] 13/12/2024 17:28

DVD,

"you told us yesterday you'd be dying in a couple of years"

That's just to fool readers. If TW don't do well, he'll just ditch the current id and use others.
Explains why he claimed he was retiring just as things turned for HBs.

[danvandan] 13/12/2024 16:37

Interesting that you focus on Quinn mugears. That really seems to have got to you. But as usual, you have missed the point. Quinn is just one small regional developer. Among their projects they have one that rivals TW's entire output for one year. There are literally hundreds of Quinns up and down the country, all of them excited by the opportunity that the govt's relaxation of planning restrictions will bring. The non-listed developers are, as a group, more agile and willing to build smaller projects on brownfield sites and find profit where they can.

This will mean that hundreds of smaller developers will collectively build more than the 80% of UK homes which they currently build. There are three million people working in UK construction and only a tiny percentage of them work for TW.

More development will mean more homes. More homes (supply) means that prices will come down. The degree of the fall in house prices will be critical. A steep fall will create widespread economic problems as people fall into negative equity, especially if and when interest rates rise (remember, interest rates can go up significantly, often driven by global events over which the UK has no control). A slow fall over several years will mean that affordability gradually increases - this will be the best outcome for everyone, but it's not guaranteed.

TW faces multiple headwinds in any event - more supply means more market options for house-buyers and stagnating or falling prices for TW houses and lower profits.
More competition for materials and labour means higher costs for TW and lower profits.
Greater market share being taken by smaller developers collectively means that TW will not be able to take advantage of increased volume in a growing market.

Worst of all, TW is paying out more cash in dividends than it is generating from profits. When the market eventually picks up, TW will need to raise cash. It currently has barely enough cash to build its planned volume for next year.

Current sp: 124p. £1 is coming.

[jugears] 13/12/2024 15:16

Sickly sorry I missed the point, basically you are saying TW are bigger & better & build more houses PER YEAR than Quinns????

How can they be worse off when we don't know the true facts of the shorter's, I really don't believe when you set your shorts at 1.68 & 150 you set it for 1.26 yes you may have made a few pence, I bought 200k at 98p & sold half at 1.80, that's 82k profit & left me with 100k shares that have in effect cost me 16p each,although if you deduct the dividends they have cost nothing then I bought again 89p ( now 1.26 plus dividends), I have added smaller amounts below £1.50 which are yet to return a profit but will do, shorting is gambling although its actually worse because there are little up front costs, I don't gamble, I don't borrow money & I don't have to worry when I see the markets over react, my investing method here is simple, the uk needs houses & someone needs the capacity to be able build them in bulk quickly, very few companies can irrespective of how many other companies there are out there large or small, interest rates won't stay high for ever & buyers wont stay away for ever,land is now sort after for the various reasons I've mentioned before & Tw own a very large & valuable commodity without even building a house on it, I wonder when the penny will drop with the markets, you just never know! but good look to all those shorter's that get lucky a few times & then over stretch & gamble a bit more & lose the lot,I think its called chanser, I am definitely not a chanser.

Does any one really care who buys or sells what, overall with dividends my Tw shares have cost me nothing, if they fell to a penny I would still be in profit, I hold for the long term which has worked on all but two shares in nearly 50 years, my overall portfollio is now worth more that what I sold my company for not bad considering I started investing with 2k all those years ago!

[sikhthetech] 13/12/2024 14:18

Jugears,

"Quinnn do not or will not ever build 12k houses a year, are you missing something?"

You're twisting what I've said. Try re-reading my post.
What part of the sentence 'ambition to build similar to TW build in the entire year' didn't you understand???


"Explain why I would be better shorting when I'm a high rate tax payer? "

Again, you're twisting what I've said.

I'm saying those who shorted then traded on way up and then shorted at 168p have made more money than those who loaded up on the way down or those who held since 2020.
This year:
Those who bought at beginning of the year or loaded up on the way down and held are worse off than those who traded and then shorted at 168p.

Sp Jan 3rd 143p
sp now 125p

down c13%

whereas I traded on the way up, maintaining a negative stance and then shorted at 168p


FACT

[jugears] 13/12/2024 14:05

TBF sick Iv'e probably made substantially more than you shorting on dividends alone lol in last 5 years then the near 100k profit on half the shares I bought at 98p & then the shares I bought at 89p & still hold plus dividends, its swings & round abouts & down to how much you invest IMEO 89p & 98p were just market stupidity & a chance not to be missed to invest large amounts for a guaranteed return, there is no guarantee shorting shares & as you are likely to have lost money 60% of the time any, Then I would say your more than likely lying? ,unless of course you are up there with the Warren Buffets of this world? oh but your not as Warren has a 10 year plan for every investment so he wouldn't short shares anyway! fair play they have been up & down a bit but then the last 5 years has probably seen more world events occur simultaneously than we will ever see again in our life time & still TW continued to build & sell house defying the market, I mean come on despite all of that, cost of living & interest rates being there highest for 16 years & they have still built 10.5k private houses & sold them, tbf knowing TW's relationship with its suppliers I don't think they would have any problem building 20k houses a year. IMEO the best is yet to come, a bit of sunshine would help though!

[essentialinvestor] 13/12/2024 13:59

No one should welcome further years of building targets falling short, it's pernicious for wider society.

As mentioned here before the GE, the Labour target is la land.

[jugears] 13/12/2024 13:48

sikh Quinnn do not or will not ever build 12k houses a year, are you missing something? its going to take them about 5 years, that would equate to TW building 60k houses, I am not saying that any of the top 30-50 hb's in the uk couldn't build 12k houses but just not & definitely not 12k in a year. its a very large stepping stone from building one or two houses to a hundred, its an even bigger one going from hundred to a thousand & ginormous going from 1 or 2k (quinns) to 12k a year, many smaller builders borrow money to build houses, sell the houses, pay the loan of & then borrow money again to build, Its extremely risky hence why I have seen hundreds go bust over the years, you can see how risky it is when you look at companies house & you have smaller hb's listing all of there developments as separate limited companies (as Quinns have), these were the ones I would say payment up front or on your bike, I think that why my company survived so long!

Explain why I would be better shorting when I'm a high rate tax payer? & why I would need to earn more money when I have plenty already, investing isn't a job or away to make income its a bit of fun, that said I've made a very good profit on DLG & TLW buying low & selling high over the last few weeks, with that & RR its been a very profitable year.

Why did hb's all decide to cut production by a third & then proceed without problems to sell all of those houses

[beckers2008] 13/12/2024 13:35

Sikhthetech,

You are a liar.

You stated you went short in October 2018 and you got burnt!

You're still smarting about it and will continue to because you lost so badly, lol, just lol

[sikhthetech] 13/12/2024 13:20

Jugears,

How high will this go?

Over the past c5years (since I mentioned I'm short on TW), those who shorted then traded on the way up and now short from 168p have done considerably better than those, like you/becky/cupra kid, who have loaded up on the way down.

The newsflow here has been as expected.

[sikhthetech] 13/12/2024 13:14

The govn hope is by building more property, the prices will be more stable, renters will be able to buy.
I don't think anyone on here has claimed that the govn proposals to build 1.5m homes in 5 years is sensible or achievable.

The problem HBs face is if the govn do force through and demand more homes to be built then either the big HBs will have to comply or lose out.

The article re Quinn Estates shows how smaller HBs have the ambition to build similar numbers as TW build in the entire year. Plus Quinn and other listed HBs don't have a fixed divi policy, which I think is flawed, based on c7.5% of NAV.

[sikhthetech] 13/12/2024 13:10

Spudders,

Planning isn't the biggest problem, affordability is.

Look at the listed builder's TU, they mention affordability, the need for interest rate reductions etc.

Why have the HBs like TW reduced the number of builds? It wasn't because of lack of land with pp.

[essentialinvestor] 13/12/2024 12:59

Tempted to add a few, however TW has outperformed re the sector this year.

Barrett Redrow is Up 10% off the recent low - however has underperformed TW YTD (based on the Barrett share price in January and the current share price of the merged business.

[jugears] 13/12/2024 12:51

pete, That's poor investing, what you should be asking is how high this will go! you never lose money on good quality shares unless you HAVE to sell!, I think that its very safe to say that how ever low the markets decide to push this it almost certainly will recover back to £1.60/70 quite rapidly until either going higher or drifting lower again, that seems to be the pattern here, I'm happy buying anything below £1.50.

[peteret] 13/12/2024 12:27

How low will this go. Bought more at 1.32 now thinking 1.22

[jugears] 13/12/2024 12:23

Tatty by then of you trot.

[jugears] 13/12/2024 12:21

spudders, I don't think a lot of people on here understand just how long it takes from becoming an idea to reality or the enormous complexity of building on brownfield sites which can be anything from a playing field to a disused petrol station to a derelict warehouse/ power stations to industrial manufacturing sites.then you have to find people to live there, its ok saying people are desperate for a home, but its funny how selective they are when it comes to choosing somewhere to live. Tw have planing on enough land for the next 8 years so can just jog a long making a profit, buying a bit of land occasionally & making returns to share holders whilst the housing market chooses its own direction, as long as they make a profit why doesn't it matter how many houses they build in the short term?, I think it highly unlikely that the share price would go back to 30p on land value alone, it would have to be seriously in debt & virtually asset-less like in the financial crisis, I've never understood the need to have to raise profits every year either, as long as you cover costs & have a bit left over, but then I can never understand the valuations the stock market put on companies that have NO assets, In debt & never make a profit compared to companies that have huge profits & huge assets, realistically TW shares should be at least £2 plus.

[alphapig] 13/12/2024 12:05

I was just indicating that crn is on an uptrend at the moment, whilst British builders stuck at this time. I'll not bother you again.

[beckers2008] 13/12/2024 11:52

Spot on Spudders, the trolls here have never been in the industry and won't understand your post.

[spudders] 13/12/2024 11:46

TW site in my area is expanding its site to accommodate more housing. DVD some trades will only do site work as they like a good run of work without dealing with the hassle of the general public. I’m in the SDNP and it takes 6 months to get a small extension approved, most larger developments on brownfield sites have been in planning stages for years and when they get approval there are multiple planning conditions applied which need signing off before work starts. What we need are new towns being built by the big house builders to solve the shortage.