Taylor Wimpey Share Discussion Threads

[tlobs2] 05/12/2023 14:01

These daily increases will be a kick in the goolies for Marshall Wace and Qube :-)

[beckers2008] 05/12/2023 13:36

Sentiment may be turning.
The bears have lost the argument, unless there is any new news out there?

TW. have guided to the top end of estimates for 2023 which has been challenging, but they have performed well with increasing the interim dividend. Good Job.

[sikhthetech] 05/12/2023 13:06

"Rising emigration may put downward pressure on net migration from 2023 onwards
Net migration at the levels seen in 2022 cannot be assumed to be a ‘new normal’. The future outlook for immigration is necessarily uncertain. On the one hand, some of the recent contributors to non-EU immigration are not expected to continue indefinitely, such as the arrival of Ukrainians fleeing the war. Emigration is also expected to increase in coming years because most work and student migrants do not remain in the UK permanently.

Many non-EU citizens come to the UK for periods of a few years before emigrating again. This means that while they contribute to immigration in the short run, they contribute less to net migration or to population growth over the long term"

[sikhthetech] 05/12/2023 13:01

Netcurtains,
Not burying my head in the sand. I base my opinions on my own experience of the property market and my own research.



Net migration stats

Majority were international student.
Majority of students would return home after completing their studies.


Humanitarian. Ukrainian refugees
How many of those Ukrainian migrants will return once the war is over?

Skilled workers.
Only 24%



ONS estimates show three main explanations for this 561,000 increase in non-EU immigration in 2022 compared to 2019 (see also Figure 3):

International students. The largest single group explaining the rise was international students and their dependants, accounting for 43% of the increase. The UK has an explicit strategy of increasing and diversifying foreign student recruitment, and it is also plausible that the reintroduction of post-study work rights post-Brexit has made the UK more attractive to international students.
Humanitarian visa routes and refugee resettlement accounted for a further 30% of the increase in long-term international migration. This follows the introduction of visa routes for Ukrainians and Hong Kong British Nationals (Overseas) status holders. These two routes make up almost all of the arrivals under the ‘Humanitarian’ category in Figure 3.
Skilled workers: 24% of the increase in long-term immigration from 2019 to the year ending December 2022 resulted from those arriving for work purposes—particularly skilled workers—and their dependants. Health and care was the main industry driving the growth. The increase in skilled workers is not solely the result of the post-Brexit immigration system but also higher demand for workers who were already eligible for visas under the old system, such as doctors and nurses.

[sikhthetech] 05/12/2023 12:55

Govn to cut net migration by 300k

Robert Jenrick insists UK workers will fill labour gaps after migration crackdown

[netcurtains] 05/12/2023 12:43

sikthetech: You can bury you head in the sand if you want to.....
perhaps a graph would help:



That chart was produced in 2009 (when population was 60m)

the population in 2023 is now: 67,736,802 people - we will soon break the 70m barrier.

[sikhthetech] 05/12/2023 12:37

Netcurtains,

"With biggest rise in UK population since the baby boom of the 1960s (due to migration)"

Most of the immigration to the UK are students. Students don't go and buy a home as they come to the UK. They live together with other students/tenants. It's is normal to multiple occupation, often 3-5 people in 1 house.
The same would be true for virtually all the net immigration.
So the need for homes is a small fraction of the net migration.

So my assertion remains, it's affordability and not demand, which is the major problem.

There are many factors which impact property market. Something several posters on here, especially Jugears, Beckers clearly don't understand.

[fenners66] 05/12/2023 09:54

I checked house prices near me the other day and was surprised how high they were.
The opposite of house price falls.

Next ONS report about UK house prices is in January I believe now what do we think that
will say ?

[jugears] 05/12/2023 09:45

So rwilly & sick want us to believe house prices are crashing when a minute portion of houses might have been reduced, in the central region I haven't seen any property for sale through an estate agent that have fallen more than 5%, which is normal anyway as know one ever offers the full asking price anyway, mean while the hb's are asking us to increase production, lol oh lol

[netcurtains] 05/12/2023 08:30

With biggest rise in UK population since the baby boom of the 1960s (due to migration)
and
3 million houses are unfit for purpose..
and
UK housing stock really bad with dealing with climate change......

The UK desperately needs millions and millions of new and better houses.

[beckers2008] 04/12/2023 23:48

Sentiment may be turning.
The bears have lost the argument, unless there is any new news out there?

TW. have guided to the top end of estimates for 2023 which has been challenging, but they have performed well with increasing the interim dividend. Good Job.

[sikhthetech] 04/12/2023 20:49

Rwlly,

Cheshire,

This backs up your assertion re properties for sale/sold in Cheshire for ages and many reduced. It shows properties, new and old, flats, houses.

Some have been listed for months, some for over a year.
Several reduced.



It proves Jugears, beckers, tlob etc don't know anything about house market.

[jugears] 04/12/2023 18:47

sikh ,HB'S very cleverly cut production at the beginning of the year by 30%, if you think build costs are starting to fall & house prices may also fall marginally then why would you build more now when you can get a bigger margin???? of all the house builders that have reported none said they had struggled to sell the lower volume built, Not many people seem to be cutting prices of houses to sell & certainly not in the 260k to 400k range, but you will always find idiots that have bought beyond there means or borrowed beyond there means who need to sell quickly, even in a housing boom & where are theses properties that have sold for a 60% loss, you couldn't even provide credible evidence of a house that sold for 30% less than two years ago, insistently I phoned the Auctioneers last week to ask why a houses would sell for a big reduction compared to street valuations,it wasn't for the faint hearted I was told, the house needed Electrics, plumbing, kitchen, bathrooms, decoration, plus all partitions ripping out that a REIT idiot had put in plus landscaping, oh & they mention that a new stairs was required basically the house had been gutted.
one thing that needs clarifying is that it is in know way a buyers market, far two few houses coming to the market, in my area alone there is nearly 40% less houses for sale than before covid, I don't disagree that some people are reducing prices due to fewre buyers, but come on 30%? 60%? come on your having a laugh the only problem is we are all having a laugh at you, if prices had dropped that much I think you will find there would be a frenzy of buyers lol oh lol

[beckers2008] 04/12/2023 18:03

Whoever followed my advice will be handsomely in profit with Dividend income at 8.5% yield to boot!

""Beckers2008 - 29 Oct 2023 - 18:12:04 - 16693 of 17070
Currently TW. is valued the same as during the darkest days of Covid in lockdown, government's not knowing the end game, no vaccines on the horizon and all building sites closed with no visibility of earnings.

Now TW. is in a far better place as we all are, but the share price does not reflect that.
Imv, anyone who buys in the coming week will be handsomely rewarded with dividend income and capital appreciation.""

Update;
Monday 13th November broker estimates for 2023, 2024 and 2025 all increased after Jennie Clay's excellent presentation the Thursday before.

[sikhthetech] 04/12/2023 18:03

netcurtains,

"Well I have to say you are the first person I have ever heard suggest that the UK does not need more houses"

I agreed with you that there is a need for more housing. I questioned why HBs reduced building them. I also question why some have been selling at a huge loss and why sellers are selling at a discount.

So, there is a need but why lack of new builds and sellers selling at a loss/discount?
Reason Affordability.



sikhthetech - 04 Dec 2023 - 12:56:13 - 17131 of 17137
Netcurtains,

"Everyone agrees we need more housing."

There is a need for more housing.


Why have the HBs reduced building them?
Why are 39% of sellers having to reduce asking price?
Why have properties been sold at 60% loss?


Because there is an affordability problem and it's a buyers market at the moment.

Buyers can ask for huge discounts and are getting them.

[netcurtains] 04/12/2023 17:27

sikhthetech: Well I have to say you are the first person I have ever heard suggest that the UK does not need more houses....

Shelter reports:
"Around three in ten people live in bad housing (3.6 million children, 9.2 million working age adults and 2 million pensioners). Bad housing is more common among those in private rented properties. Four in ten (3.3 million) private rented tenants live in bad housing."

Age Concern:
"
Homes that kill: 2 million homes in England pose a serious threat to health or safety
"

The lists go on and on...

For sure most people are not living in tents but huge numbers of people are actually living in appalling conditions.....


I think nearly everyone agrees we need MORE and BETTER housing...

Foy you to go on about affordability is important too, but that is not the main issue - the main issue is a lack of good housing....

[jugears] 04/12/2023 15:34

becks, I feel very sorry for anyone that listened to sickly over on TLY, of course had they listened to me instead most would have got out at 21p!

[cestnous] 04/12/2023 14:15

Every day I read some nonsense from sickinthehead and every day the share price goes UP!

[beckers2008] 04/12/2023 13:13

Beckers2008 - 01 Dec 2023 - 09:05:58 - 3463 of 3498
Seems I was right, lol!

Beckers200822 Sep '23 - 15:01 - 3460 of 3462 Edit

Well, the MM's can't give this pos away, now 7.3p on the offer.

Seems the impairments, goodwill and WIP is having an effect.

No civil servant will want to be associated with a dud like TLY.
Expect more contracts to be torn up.
Quality and performance issues are a real concern.

[sikhthetech] 04/12/2023 12:56

Netcurtains,

"Everyone agrees we need more housing."

There is a need for more housing.


Why have the HBs reduced building them?
Why are 39% of sellers having to reduce asking price?
Why have properties been sold at 60% loss?


Because there is an affordability problem and it's a buyers market at the moment.

Buyers can ask for huge discounts and are getting them.

[beckers2008] 04/12/2023 12:50

Beckers2008 - 30 Nov 2023 - 11:07:04 - 17071 of 17130
Unlike Sikhthetech over on TLY, lol!

Whoever followed my advice will be handsomely in profit with Dividend income at 8.5% yield to boot!

""Beckers2008 - 29 Oct 2023 - 18:12:04 - 16693 of 17070
Currently TW. is valued the same as during the darkest days of Covid in lockdown, government's not knowing the end game, no vaccines on the horizon and all building sites closed with no visibility of earnings.

Now TW. is in a far better place as we all are, but the share price does not reflect that.
Imv, anyone who buys in the coming week will be handsomely rewarded with dividend income and capital appreciation.""

[sikhthetech] 04/12/2023 12:30

gbh,

Why am I in a hole?. If you believe someone who went short and then has been trading has dug a hole then you really are naive and desperate.

The housing market newsflow has been as predicted, hasn't it?

I went short and then trading. HBs share price crashed.

[beckers2008] 04/12/2023 12:28

s100,

Couldn't agree more, when I say investors, I mean II's not PI's as PI's do not move prices unless organised on mass.

I thought 'Sikhthetech' would have known this!
It is even more stupid than I thought it was, lol!

[gbh2] 04/12/2023 12:26

sikh, have you ever heard the saying:

"When you find yourself stuck in a hole' stop digging" :))