Taylor Wimpey Share Discussion Threads

[kreature] 27/7/2024 02:26

‘ There has been a dip in new energy performance certificates (EPCs), suggested falling home sales and property supply’

[danvandan] 26/7/2024 19:49

Here are just three developments, two of them pushed through against local objections, that show the kind of building that will ultimately enable the government to meet its targets - mostly flats rather than houses.

The most interesting of these to my eye is the Manchester project where brownfield land nominally worth £1.2m has been gifted to a developer for four quid, plus a reported development grant of £8m. These are the kind of developments and special relationships that I've mentioned in my longer posts over the last couple of weeks that will erode the current high price of property and crucially, erode the value of builders' landbanks.

In my view, all of this bodes badly for TW. However, for the moment, the market is oblivious.



Prime development land to be sold off by council for just £4
Bolton Council's leader said the deal would mean work on the long-delayed £75m Church Wharf project 'can start quickly'




Welwyn Hatfield MP Andrew Lewin has revealed his "disappointment" after plans for 151 homes on the site of Welwyn Garden City's B&Q store were pushed through.



Bromley council has greenlit a scheme to build more than 350 rental homes in partnership with John Lewis on a brownfield site in the area, in a sign that Labour’s housebuilding drive is starting to take root.

The build-to-rent scheme will be developed, owned and managed by John Lewis.

[danvandan] 26/7/2024 19:39

It's undeniably a really interesting situation with the listed house-builders. Barratt easily seem to be in the worst situation and hedge-funds have piled on with their shorts, but the share price continues up. At Crest, a broadly similar situation, the rising share price has seen off much of the shorts, though 2% reportable remains in place. The hedgies' resolve is being tested and some are being found wanting.

Here, the TW shareprice managed a rather tepid rise today on a big bounce for the overall market, but again, we're at a two-year high against what looks like a two-year low for production (to be confirmed on Wednesday). Sentiment continues to be bouyed by the idea that house-building will take off for all the builders. However, if you read the article that I linked here earlier this week, you'll see that not all house-builders are created equal and that prospects for TW do not look good when properly examined. Evidently the market does not see it yet, but at some point it will. Longs, enjoy the share price while you can.

[jugears] 26/7/2024 17:11

Yep, I don't think the markets agree with sicklies pessimism!

[craftyale] 26/7/2024 14:34

Haven't noticed.... although I visit the threads/boards less and less these days. Ramping, repetition and the moronic arguing keeps me away. I do however appreciate the (very rare) posters who add quality. I remain bullish here at TW. Almost at 160p. Looking forward to Wednesday.

[jugears] 26/7/2024 11:04

Sikh, where is this written contract to say that TW HAVE to pay shareholders c7.5% Nav ??? There is no contract to say they have to pay a single penny just like they didn't in covid? I'm not here for the dividend, I never take dividends for granted in any of my investments, they are nice obviously but I would never rely on them as an income stream. material cost have plunged, not increased & buy now almost certainly in negative territory, again with you its if buts & may be's, lets see what they have to say next week, good or bad I wont be selling, but you never know I might just get a brief chance to buy a load if the price is right!

[beckers2008] 26/7/2024 09:33

Sikhthetech,

Yes, and I admitted I was wrong and got in too early, unlike you who never admits it's mistakes, lol!

My average was £1.03, as well you know with a 9% yeild, bought my last tranche at 86p.

I think the twisting lays at your door.

How's your £3 a share investment of TLY doing?
No twisting needed, you are the village idiot, lol, just lol!

[beckers2008] 26/7/2024 09:28

K, DvD, Sikhthetech,

Whichever way you look at it, the market has gone against you, in other words, you have called it wrong.

DvD, short, wrong at £1.335
K, short, wrong at £1.095
Short traders, the good ones, set up stop-losses at usually 15%.
This tells me that both of you are telling porkies, DvD broke through 15% and K's crashed!
You are not traders, you are trolls and not very good emotional ones, lol!
Sikhthetech, lost it's shirt back in October 2018 and can't let it go, bleating ever since, lol, just lol!

[kreature] 26/7/2024 00:44

Zoopla users can now filter their property search by leasehold and freehold. But why not add a Fleecehold filter to show the fake-freeholds ?

[sikhthetech] 25/7/2024 20:45

TW's big problem, unlike other HBs, is their divi policy - they are committed to paying c7.5% NAV. If housing builds continue to remain low and the housing market remains uncertain then cash will decline faster.
They are likely to have to use their credit facility of £600m.



sikhthetech - 02 Aug 2023 - 13:19:08 - 14942 of 1505
<...>
Agree. They have a dividend policy which they have committed to, c7.5% of NAV and will cost approx £250m pa. Housing market is in a downtrend and costs (wages etc) uptrend. Therefore, they will lose cash very quickly. It explains why they had to increase their credit facility to £600m and until 2028. They obviously believe they could need extra millions over the next 5 yrs.

[jugears] 25/7/2024 16:02

sick, most people would have been paying at least 1.5% mortgage interest, you can get a fixed(if you are really thick & very stupid)for less than 4% so hardly mega rises & it depends on how big your mortgage is & as there is no official data to tell us that, then your guess is a bout as good as that bloody think tank & Guardian, although the word THINK is a good clue as to its accuracy! It is all ifs buts & maybe's, in my opinion it probably wont be.

[beckers2008] 25/7/2024 15:15

DvD,

It's took you 2 days to post that, lol!
I and others on here have been telling you that Wimps have cut production by 33% for 2023 and 2024.
Expect Q3 and Q4 to show even less new build registrations.

2024 will be TW.'s worst year since 2020.
Earnings growth will resume in 2025 and moreover in 2026.
Interestingly TW. will still be cash flow free positive in 2024 and an improved position to 2023.

The future looks good for TW. but not this FY, but the market expects this anyway.
I wonder why the share price is up 33% in the last year?

[sikhthetech] 25/7/2024 14:31

There's still hundreds of thousands to come off cheap 2-5yr fixed rate mortgages. They face significantly higher mortgage interest.


Soaring UK mortgage rates have pushed 320,000 adults into poverty, thinktank says
Institute for Fiscal Studies report says interests rate rises have inflicted differing levels of hardship

[gbh2] 25/7/2024 14:25

Anyone noticed disappearing advfn threads?

Two of the lloyds threads I use have dissapeared.

[danvandan] 25/7/2024 14:05

In other news, I see that one of the building societies is offering a 3.99% mortgage rate for people who are paying mostly cash and don't actually need a mortgage. A kind of 'loss leader' in mortgage marketing. IRL average fixed rates are still close to 6%.

Big fall today is mainly due to the overall market drop, mostly driven by tech stocks apparently. Looking at the one month chart though, it does look like we may have seen the peak here. Bulls getting ready to stampede out?

[danvandan] 25/7/2024 13:59

Potential rate cut is still on the cards for Wednesday. Money markets have this at around 50/50 likelihood. I doubt it'll move the share price on the day; the H1 results will be the main driver along with whatever hopeful nonsense Jennie Daly comes up with. Should be interesting.

[danvandan] 25/7/2024 13:54

Some staggering falls in new build registrations being reported today:



Bodes ill for TW but let's see the actual numbers next week.

Interesting comment from Angela Rayner shows the direction of building:
“We are committed not just to an ambitious target for overall housebuilding but the biggest wave of social and affordable housing for a generation. It’s a promise that we’ll bring back with meaningful housing targets.”

In other words, the government's ambition, as expected, focuses on social and affordable housing and does not extend to TW's segment of the market.

[sikhthetech] 25/7/2024 13:22

Looks like 155p-158p is good shorting opportunity. Was looking for 160p anyway.


Just posted on EZJ - views I've expressed on here about Air bnb/b2l homes/investors.


sikhthetech25 Jul '24 - 13:19 - 19009 of 19009 Edit

Over tourism is a serious problem for local communities.

However, it will discourage tourists from visiting those places, leading to longer term problems for their economy. The solution isn't directing anger at tourists during the peak season. That's counter productive.

It's become all too easy to buy a property and list it on providers like Air BnB.
Government pressure/taxation etc is needed against providers like Air BnB.

Any action is more likely to impact Air BnB, housing market.

[beckers2008] 24/7/2024 16:35

K,

I bet you don't, but just in case you do, you will see things ticking along as forecast.
2024 will be TW.'s worst year since 2020.
Earnings growth will resume in 2025 and moreover in 2026.
Interestingly TW. will still be cash flow free positive in 2024 and an improved position to 2023.

The future looks good for TW. but not this FY, but the market expects this anyway.
I wonder why the share price is up 33% in the last year?

[cupra kid] 24/7/2024 14:19

Jugs, for your own sanity I think it's best to filter Sikh. Trust me when I say, you won't miss not reading his/her comments.

[kreature] 24/7/2024 13:59

Whilst you guys try to justify your existence, I’ll go and take a look at a TW site to see how quiet is, or (for balance) how busy it isn’t. Will report back later. ATB