Taylor Wimpey Share Discussion Threads

[danvandan] 21/11/2024 12:35

I doubt rates will fall uhound. It's prices that need to fall and it will have to be a substantial fall to get the market going again. That will be a chaotic situation. Slow deflation over a decade or more might be a better outcome. There's no way of knowing how it will fall out.

[uhound] 21/11/2024 12:20

Fair value is probably £1.25.

However, I'd expect further weakness overall going into 2025, with the occasional up day as people buy in what they think is a bargain.

Until mortgage rates start to fall and inflation settles, sentiment is not in TW favour.

[danvandan] 21/11/2024 12:13

Regarding net asset value, pigsear, I can't imagine why you would be inflating it to some completely made up figure, when TW's own completely made up figure is 127p. This is reliant on their estimate of land values, and the reality is that those values cannot be achieved if they HAVE to sell. As we all know, builders tend to show great figures until they suddenly go broke, like ISG recently and Carillion a few years back.

[danvandan] 21/11/2024 11:59

Yes, that last admission really does say it all; people are not asking about starter homes because the bottom row of the pyramid has been lost. It's only a matter of time before the rest of the pyramid comes down a level or two.

Btw, point72 increased its short again on TW this week. Their reportable position is now 0.74% of the shares. I wonder if Steve Cohen is reading our posts. If he'll increase it by 0.01% I'll take that as a yes. 😊

[jugears] 21/11/2024 10:36

I can't believe these are below there minimum asset value which is at least £1.50? that is excluding any profit from actually building houses,I was speaking to a friend that works for a house builder I am invested in last night, they are expecting sales to increase next year, perhaps houses are not as unaffordable as some think????, not everyone is poverty stricken & a third of buyers still pay cash a lot of people have been put off this year waiting for elections & budget.

Its all very well the government wanting 1.5 million affordable homes but who actually wants them, not enough money in them for private landlords, housing associations can't afford them & are cutting back on the number being built, private house builders will only build a small amount as not profitable enough & uk government can't afford to build them either, my estate agent friend said the other day that we get more people enquiring about family homes & property that needs renovating the he does starter homes, says it all really!

[beckers2008] 21/11/2024 09:55

K,

Not answering the question, that figures, lol!

Really, when my average was £1.03 and sold at £1.36.
How can I be bitter about making a tidy profit plus 3 div payments?

[ricardo montalban] 21/11/2024 09:44

Can’t work out how these are still over a quid, house builder outlook absolutely dire.

[kreature] 21/11/2024 08:59

Housing costs are the real reason for the increase in inflation. Not energy bills. :

[sikhthetech] 20/11/2024 23:35

EI

"Late November(ish) time tends to be a decent buying spot for
the sector, with SP's often nicely up by the following summer"

Unlike previous years, this year there's a new govn, budget which is bad for HBs, Hike in taxes which will impact affordability, prospects of interest rates staying higher for longer.

Whereas, last year's rise was to do with hyped sector due to prospects of inflation falling, interest rates falling, prospects of housing market surging.

[kreature] 20/11/2024 21:09

Maybe they should call an emergency general election for this January due to a false manifesto and a false curriculum vitae, that prob wouldn’t even pass AIM Regulation ?

[beckers2008] 20/11/2024 19:07

DvD,

I qoute you...

'As for a Q4 interest rate cut - it's looking less and less likely'

They cut in Q4!
DvD, why do you consistently prove yourself a mug-punter, lol!

I think you will find that October, November and December are all in Q4.
Am I correct yet again and you are wrong... yet again, lol, just lol!

The Bank of England (BOE) cut interest rates from 5% to 4.75% at its meeting on November 6, 2024.

[beckers2008] 20/11/2024 18:55

K,

Really, when my average was £1.03 and sold at £1.36.
How can I be bitter about making a tidy profit plus 3 div payments?

[kreature] 20/11/2024 18:26

Beckers200820 Nov '24 - 17:44 - 19790
‘I sold out nearly a year ago’

With respect, at least that would explain your bitterness. ATB

[essentialinvestor] 20/11/2024 17:58

CMA yet to report on the alleged price sharing between the large listed HB's ?.

Unless I've missed the announcement.

Late November(ish) time tends to be a decent buying spot for
the sector, with SP's often nicely up by the following summer -
only a general rule, so exceptions apply.

This worked again over the last 12 months, giving a buy opportunity in the mid £1.30's in December and a summer sell available at £1.60 plus in August.

[jugears] 20/11/2024 17:16

The trouble is sickly old boy you've been telling us since 2019 lol

[kreature] 20/11/2024 16:55

Uh oh….lefrene is awake and seeing clearly. That’s not supposed to happen. Hopefully wrong, but looking right

[lefrene] 20/11/2024 16:31

My guess this bunch of bare faced liars will print to oblivion, hoping somehow to avoid hyper-inflation by forcing a digital currency onto the sheeple.

Meanwhile taking public ownership of anything of value by 'rescuing' companies their policies have forced over the edge. It's going to be more China, than China. I hope I'm very wrong, but ever since the Repo crash, it's been like some sort of hologram. There has to be a reckoning.

We're all in for an interesting time, we shall have to see how it affects house values.

[kreature] 20/11/2024 16:24

VTY down 6% now ….in one day. I think they do something different to here tho. Yes they build and sell houses but dunno they say something is a bit different. Diggers might be a different colour or something?

[sikhthetech] 20/11/2024 16:07

The realists posts have been consistent as to where I and thry think housing market and HBs are heading.

Understanding why we are here is important to understand where they are heading.

[essentialinvestor] 20/11/2024 16:03

Beckers, with respect repeating the same
points over and over says as much about you, as sik.

No one cares what he said, did, didn't do, got wrong, etc.


Where the share price goes from here is the salient point, the future is what investors/traders are interested in, not constant rehashing of the past.

[kreature] 20/11/2024 15:58

VTY down another 7% today, so now what ? Um dunno. How can we collectively on here make mortgage rates fall? Bit difficult probably. On a positive note, um nope dunno

[kreature] 20/11/2024 15:35

£450k would only be a massive paper loss tbf. We all know it doesn’t count until you actually sell (probably back at 30p by the way this is going)

[beckers2008] 20/11/2024 15:14

Sikhthetech,

No twisting here...

You shorted TW. in October 2018 and got burnt and still smarting 6 years later, lol!