Taylor Wimpey Share Discussion Threads

[danvandan] 02/12/2024 16:39

And beckers, if you keep calling for a housing crash, it'll probably happen. 😊

[danvandan] 02/12/2024 16:36

Frantic blatherings from pigsear. Still fighting the last war it seems. Who cares what any poster said on here five years ago. The shareprice is going down TODAY. And last Friday. And most likely the rest of this week. The tiny blip in house prices alleged by Nationwide contrasts with the big fall in prices for the previous month AND is likely caused by a very small rush of people attempting to buy before the stamp duty changes. That stamp duty increase, btw, will cause an even greater slowdown in a couple of months as deals get cancelled when completions are missed, and the new tax effectively raises prices at the lower end of the pyramid scheme (which is what housing in the UK has become).

Congrats to TW for reducing its building before the mini-housing recession took hold, although part of the way that they've avoided a huge number of unsold properties is through 'incentives' which have taken a bite out of their profit, hence the stagnating prices for new builds. They've also allowed smaller competitors into the market, by shrinking their own share.

As for the rest of being 'well run' - we shall see. Part of managing the business well involves maintaining sufficient cash; the current dividend payout is quickly eliminating TW's cash pile. Management will presumably take action by reducing the dividend or raising cash with a share issue (giving with one hand and taking with the other) although the dividend will not survive at its current rate after new shares are issued. Both of these actions will have a dramatic effect on the shareprice.

[jugears] 02/12/2024 16:23

Sick what points have you posted that were right???, you predicted since 2019 a housing crash, Stamp duty holiday ending would crash the market (didn't make any difference), h2b ending would crash the market (not made very much difference if any tbf), millions of people being unemployed after covid( they wren't) thousand didn't predict was Covid & a War that pushed energy & fuel prices sky high resulting in the ONLY cause of uk inflation leading to higher interest rates & you have categorically said in every post that affordability is an issue, yet Tw have continued to build & sell every house they decided to build, not one house builder has reported any of those houses that they CHOSE to build as being unsold????? & here we are with house prices still rising & interest rates now falling, well done hb's for cutting production simultaneously by a third, you have played the markets amazingly, First class management,
Becks I've had 25p in dividends since telling him to buy at .90p so that means I'm still 60p up on that purchase alone (I think it very doubtful its made that much shorting!), I did tell it to buy RR below a pound & sell TLY @21p when I sore the alarm bells!, what I see here are the alarm bells that this is way to cheap on the land bank alone, some people never learn, for 60% of people shorting doesn't pay,IMEO putting 10k into a short is about 100% more risky than putting 500k into actually buying shares in well ran old established British companies & lets be honest Tw is probably the best ran building company in the uk, first class management, that's why I am here, a classic example of a very badly ran company is DLG, Badly managed for years & not moved with the times & then the management turn down to offers for the company foolishly believing that it under values the company lol it beggars belief, another example is TLY ran by a management that is completely clueless about their own costs & then we have Ocado! enough said I think.

[beckers2008] 02/12/2024 16:16

House prices in the UK grew at the fastest rate in nearly two years in November, in a surprise acceleration despite near-record highs straining affordability, according to figures from Nationwide.

The annual growth rate rebounded to 3.7% in November, up from 2.4% in October, according to the UK’s biggest building society. That was the fastest rate since November 2022.

The jump in prices pushed the average price of purchases through Nationwide to £268,144, just 1% below the record. Nationwide’s data is more timely but less complete than that from the Office for National Statistics, which found average UK house prices increased by 2.9%, to £292,000, in the year to September 2024.

Now tell me trolls, when is the UK house price crash going to happen, lol!
Some village idiot has been predicting it for over 6 years, lol, just lol!
Tell me trolls,

[beckers2008] 02/12/2024 15:40

I call you quitter because you said you were going to quit (your word) posting here and you haven't, lol!
Remember Jugs gave you advise to buy TW. at 90p, U dithered and delayed and eventually admitted your mistake, by not buying lol!

Now tell me, when is the UK house price crash going to happen, lol!
Some village idiot has been predicting it for over 6 years, lol, just lol!

[beckers2008] 02/12/2024 15:09

U, the quitter,

Sikhthetech actually posted on PSN that what I write influences the SP, lol!
It even thought I was a holder of PSN, maybe it was influenced by my writings, lol!

What a classic mug-punter, lol, just lol!

[spudders] 02/12/2024 14:49

DVD, do you really believe investors take positions based on what is posted on BB’s ?
I always check the odd BB before taking a position just in case my own DD missed something and I need to investigate more before committing. I’ve worked for many square miler’s over the years refurbishing their homes, never heard one say they trade on BB tips. New Year will see TW. Prosper imho

[beckers2008] 02/12/2024 14:39

spudders,

Because the trolls on here are village idiots.
They get caught out many times posting bs.

Now when is the UK house price crash going to happen, one village idiot in particular has been forecasting one for over 6 years, lol!
And 6 years of trolling to boot! Lol, just lol!

[spudders] 02/12/2024 14:13

I don’t get why the trolls who possibly have a short position believe that bashing TW.on a BB will influence the share price or other investors positions. I’m pretty sure most here have done their DD before taking a position bwdik. GLA longs

[danvandan] 02/12/2024 14:10

It seems that people are not convinced by pigsear's assertion that they CAN afford massively higher mortgage payments. This bodes badly for the housing market in 2025.


High street retailers suffer worst slump in sales since Covid

[danvandan] 02/12/2024 13:52

Current share price is 129p beckers. Try to keep up chum. I know it's hard for you, given your very limited mental capacity, but maybe you can ask an adult to help you?

You could also take a quick look at the chart at the top of this page. Be quick though; if you leave it more than a few minutes, it's likely to say 128p or even lower!

[danvandan] 02/12/2024 13:39

Funny that pigsear's only 'friend' on here is the certified idiot beckers. Seeing these two trying to pump each other up is one of the more entertaining aspects of this board.

[danvandan] 02/12/2024 13:37

pigsear! I thought you'd filtered me. At least that's what you keep saying. So why're you trying to reply to some of the points in my post? Could it be that you're fibbing again?

Regarding the 'large housebuilders' - you've got to realise that TW only has a very small part of the overall market, probably no more than 5% at best. The govt is doing the right thing by expanding the sector as a whole, instead of relying on the 'large housebuilders'. Smaller builders are more flexible, build smaller developments and collectively more houses, and will use more brownfield sites. That does mean however, more market competition for TW and ultimately lower profits. £1 is coming.

[uhound] 02/12/2024 13:24

Jugears - "If & its a big if these fell below a pound I would have no hesitation to cash shares in all of my other 20 or so other companies & put the lot in TW"

What is bloody idiot!

Not the actions of a businessman or an investor with any real idea of how to invest.

[jugears] 02/12/2024 13:02

Becks, Spot on Tw are worth at least £1.50 at the very minimum. When the share price was 30p they had 1 billion plus of debt & a land bank a fraction of today's size, today's land bank alone is potentially worth circa 8 billion, If & its a big if these fell below a pound I would have no hesitation to cash shares in all of my other 20 or so other companies & put the lot in TW, I see exponential growth here, the government want 1.5 million new homes, its going to need all of the large house builders on board as these are the only companies that can build houses with out borrowing costs & have shear buying power on their sides, the Government wants to lend money at cheap rates to smaller builders & its not going to work, lack of buying power & when you borrow any money your profits are eroded straight away, firms wont work for a menial rewards & smaller firms cant attract staff as they can't afford decent wages,IMEO there has never been a better time to buy house builders in the last 4 years, DYOR!

[danvandan] 02/12/2024 12:44

Hmmm... no denial from beckers. So you ARE long and losing money! That does explain all the moronic posts from you. That and your innate stupidity. Btw, I've never made any secret of the fact that I'm short here. Nor has sikh, as far as I can see. But you beckers are VERY DISHONEST, refusing to explain your presence here.

[beckers2008] 02/12/2024 12:43

"Beckers2008 - 31 Oct 2024 - 10:33:28 - 19270 of 19954
Seems I was correct yet again, not bad for a child in shorts running rings around the trolls, lol!" END.

"Beckers2008 - 21 Aug 2023 - 14:22:23 - 15430 of 19270
U, the quitter, lol!

Of course the Bulls realise what has, what is and what will happen, it's all played out before many times.

Imv, TW. is undervalued hence why I've luckily averaged down to £1.03.
The HB sector has been in a bear market since April 2021 and to be valued the same as when Covid stuck with then, all sites closing and zero visibility of earnings seems aabhorrent.

It's all in the price." END.

Watch and learn trolls, lol, just lol!

[danvandan] 02/12/2024 12:33

I think this is an interesting item and gives a clue as to the govt's thinking, expanding the capacity of the smaller builders to generate more homes since the larger builders are all reducing theirs. This is just another aspect of the current market that reduces TW's value and relevance:



SME housebuilders given more access to finance with £3bn govt guarantee

The government has confirmed £3bn in additional housing guarantees for SME housebuilders will be available from today, widening access to finance from banks and lenders.
The guarantees were announced at the Budget and aim to reduce the risk for lenders, which is expected to encourage them to increase the credit available to SME housebuilders and the build to rent sector.

This includes doubling the ENABLE Build scheme to £2bn, so smaller housebuilders and firms can develop more than 10,000 new homes, including student accommodation and specialised housing for older people.

[beckers2008] 02/12/2024 12:27

DvD,

Never as active as you and you evidently post later than me, remember, lol!

I'm sure you stated you were going to post your imaginary 'Short' contract note, lol!

You did 'state' you were, lol!

You're just another classic mug-punter,lol, just lol!

[danvandan] 02/12/2024 12:17

Usual denial from pigsear. The first stage of grief. Soon, it'll be anger (second stage) that the stockmarket is destroying the value of his holding.

Perhaps it would be wise to get ahead of the 'negotiation' third-stage and just sell now, though I strongly suspect that pigsear HAS been selling secretly while he implores everyone else to buy. He surely can't see our well-argued bear-case EVERY DAY and be completely oblivious to the EVIDENCE of the falling shareprice; TW's own trading updates; forecasts from all of the other house-builders; and TW's actual sharecharts showing how the price has got down to 30p before now, and still not sell, can he? Who could be THAT stupid?