Taylor Wimpey Share Discussion Threads

[danvandan] 20/11/2024 13:38

And yet people here tell us that house prices are increasing. Oh wait, that was the summer, right? And fictional. Prices dropped £5k last month. Looks like that might be the start of something...

[kreature] 20/11/2024 13:34

In the shell of a nut :

Building costs increasing
New building regulations costs increasing
National Insurance costs increasing
Mortgage rates increasing
Inflation rate increasing
Stamp duty costs increasing
Heating bills increasing
Food already unaffordable

Equals major new build affordability issues

Imo

[danvandan] 20/11/2024 13:34

Also, I think it's worth people keeping in mind that shorts are building on TW now. Steve Cohen's hedge fund has a £30m short position and that is likely to be the tip of the iceberg. There will be plenty of shorts below the 0.5% reportable threshold. We can add 'momentum' 'trend' and 'sentiment' to FUNDAMENTALS, for factors driving the share price now.

[danvandan] 20/11/2024 13:24

The chart looks grim. No let up in the fall. Straight through the support level and now nothing to stop this falling to £1. TW's next trading update will likely start to address the elephant in the room; running out of cash. My guess is that if we haven't already got there, we will go straight to £1 or lower at that point. GFY, ATB, GLA.

[danvandan] 20/11/2024 13:19

127p. pigsear, good to see you admit that you 'don't have a clue'. Also, since you don't know how to short, you also don't know how to hedge, so all you can do is watch the value of your shares sink through the floor. I gather from your posts that you were buying in the 140s, bringing your average price up. When the total value of your shares has HALVED, I wonder if you will still be making the same 'bullish' argument. I daresay we shall see in a few months time, or perhaps even just a few weeks.

[jugears] 20/11/2024 12:25

Sikh I haven't got a clue, I only know what shares I hold, I don't trade & I don't Short shares & actually I don't know anyone that does except a few poster on here that professes to make money on every short which is impossible to do, yes you may make 2 or 3p on your 1k short, Wow! I'm not here to make short term profits so that I can pay most of it in tax, I invest for the long term & the share price is far to low, simple as.
I haven't bought any shares above 1.50 in over 3 years, probably longer & that was only 10K, I am not here to gamble on a quick buck, win or lose, I am here to make a guaranteed return, that may be this year/ next year or even the year after but it will be more than bank interest, that I do know.
Sick you & your cronies are all talk, the facts clearly show that more people lose money shorting than make a profit, that is as bed as betting on the horses, I would rather go for the dead certainty of a return even if it takes longer,that dividend was bloody fantastic coming as shares as I didn't need the cash, what did you spend yours on? good look to shorter's but my overall TW portfolio is 300% more than I have paid out excluding dividends, yes it may have taken 13/14/15 years but I'm happy to take 20% plus on average far better to risk betting a share at a later date can be bought for a few pence less!, you only lose money if you have to sell, I don't but appreciate that some lower paid people or corner shop owners have to take a few more risks to subsidise their income, is that correct sicky?

[lefrene] 20/11/2024 12:21

Sikh, this government is invested in 'spite' politics, and clueless as to how their far left gamesmanship is going to quickly damage an already very stretched economic situation.

I presume they will just keep printing money in the hope of avoiding a repeat of the 1990's? It can't end well.

I live in a large wealthy village, lately the talk in the pub is of how difficult it has become to complete on sales of houses. Mainly it seems lenders are placing more and more caveats on loans, and wanting the buyer to put in more equity. ie, only willing to lend to people who probably don't actually need to borrow.

A nearby village has a 250 unit new build site, and has had signage up for 9 months now, but absolutely no sign of any activity, so perhaps the pre-sell interest is not as hoped for?

[sikhthetech] 20/11/2024 11:58

Jugears,

who is making more money over the past couple of months, those who have held, loaded up on the way down from 170p or those who shorted???

Labour are in power for 4+ YEARS.

[baracuda2] 20/11/2024 11:23

Totally agree, I hope all the labour voters are happy being a lot poorer

[sikhthetech] 20/11/2024 11:11

Lefrene

"Labour policies have also taken a chunk of disposable income out the pockets of the working poor."

Exactly. Making affordability worse. Budget impacts hospitality, retailers etc more and it's those on lower incomes who tend to work there, so I expect severe mortgage debt to increase.

[kreature] 20/11/2024 11:10

I’m struggling to find any reason at all to buy shares here, even at say 30p. What’s the catalyst to move this forward?

[sikhthetech] 20/11/2024 11:08

CRST update not good. Shows HBs still suffering from affordability.

Inflation higher than BoE target, so longer to wait for interest rate cuts.

Affordability still a problem.

I expect increases in severe mortgage debt, as per my previous assertions.

[kreature] 20/11/2024 11:08

Might be worth considering a house overseas, rather than new build here?

[kreature] 20/11/2024 10:55

127 to save you looking juganought. 50 years of being an expert and you’re still wrong. Oh well

[kreature] 20/11/2024 10:44

How much are those land banks worth what with affordability of the houses and volumes dropping in open market ? All filters down to skint buyers right

[jugears] 20/11/2024 10:14

Questionable why your share price is lower than your landbanks value & that is without adding on the value of house sales my estimation is that these are 32% undervalued on assets alone. But then as I have said before anything under 1.50 here is a bargain!

[baracuda2] 20/11/2024 10:12

Talk about oversold, this is such a bargain share now.

[lefrene] 20/11/2024 09:36

Lower land prices. It comes with no added value, the price is determined by the amount of credit available, and what competing builders are willing to pay out, but ultimately if the end house buyer can't raise enough credit, then prices have to adjust to whatever credit is available.

IMO we'd have a much more balanced society if all building land were owned by the commonwealth. Then instead of a grotesquely overpriced piece of dirt draining money from the economy, we might have much better housing at genuinely affordable prices.

Instead we just keep pumping up the prices of bed spaces in our industrial dormitory, making our economy uncompetitive, as we carry this self inflicted cost.

If the likes of TW were granted building land gratis, then they could concentrate on being good efficient builders without having to borrow to stock pile land. Less capital tied up, less borrowing, better profits, better divi's for shareholders, more work for the suppliers to the industry, everyone a winner except for the rapacious Banks that currently take most of the profit for doing nothing at all.

[kreature] 20/11/2024 08:52

‘Inflation Accelerates Sharply’ is how the FT describes it today

So I dont see how affordability will be improving any time soon.

Anyone got any ideas ? Can they maybe build smaller houses on cheaper land ? With less workers on site ? Cheaper materials perhaps? Lower wages ?

[lefrene] 20/11/2024 08:42

Labour policies have also taken a chunk of disposable income out the pockets of the working poor. £500 a year in higher bus fares and £4000 a year in part time jobs being cut to £5k instead of £9.1k. As the GDP falls no doubt they will try to blame protesting farmers!

Less money going in at the base of an economy (the poor need to spend on essentials, now they have £4,600 a year less to put into the market), thus less being spent has a knock on effect all the way up. Something has to give, either the lenders will need to be more inventive, or prices will need to come down to meet the incomes available.

Huge demand doesn't always mean higher prices, the situation was managed post WW2 by enacting strict borrowing regulations, and prices came down to match the credit available. All destroyed by one Edward Heath in April 1974, and it's been a big mess ever since.

[kreature] 20/11/2024 08:28

Crest update
‘ private open market sales volumes continuing to be impacted by ongoing affordability concerns. ‘

[kreature] 19/11/2024 21:15

And exactly how is this going to help ?