Taylor Wimpey Share Discussion Threads

[beckers2008] 18/11/2024 12:03

Beckers2008 - 15 Nov 2024 - 08:20:32 - 19660 of 19682
£1.30, Close is strong support here.

Do you understand that DvD, lol!

Come on Trolls, tell me, when is the UK house price crash going to happen?
You have only been wrong for 6 years!
How many, yes, 6 years, lol, just lol!

[1carus] 18/11/2024 12:02

I don't really ramp shares, but remain positive here to the extent that I decided to reinvest the divi that was paid in ISA. Shares held outside of ISA I took the divi as cash. This seems to cycle between £1(£1.20) and £1.80 over a 18 month to 2 year period. I would hold for 12 months even if my average buy was not down at close to £1, the 7%+ divi is still compelling.If this gets back to 1.80 within 18 months you would be close to 40% with share value and dividend. Starmer has to get Britain building, he will have to incentivise it.

[sikhthetech] 18/11/2024 12:00

EI,

Opposition normally promise the earth so they can win. When in power, they backtrack.

GFC was never resolved, so taxes had to rise.

Tories were in power for around a decade. Prior to that there was a coalition with the LibDems, so Tories had some limitations.

GFC, covid. It's not surprising taxes had to rise.


There's 4+ years of Labour and now Trump.

[uhound] 18/11/2024 11:56

The Investors Chronicle article this week gives TW a sell rating and a 2 page write up as to why.

Basically everything the bears here have been saying. "In the event of a prolonged downturn - which we think is more likely".
Divi not sustainable and had to use cash reserves as profits had not generated enough cash.

Likely further to fall as others cotton on!

[danvandan] 18/11/2024 11:52

129p. The line has broken...

Cue 10 posts from pigsear saying 'Don't panic! Don't panic!' It's too late mate. £1 is coming.

[danvandan] 18/11/2024 11:49

DOWN is the right word pigsear. Knock, knock, knocking on 130p and freefall to £1. The shareprice here defied gravity for a while but the market has finally realised that the decline in profits here is an ongoing trend and the dividend will be cut. When that happens, the effect on the share price will be dramatic. When TW announces its £400m profit, down more than 10% from last year, how much of it will be further reduced by 'exceptional' costs? Actual profit will not cover the dividend. That is a perilous situation for any company.

Btw, house prices have dropped last month twice as much as expected. How come none of the rampers here are discussing it?

[essentialinvestor] 18/11/2024 11:38

PSN referencing signs of growing build cost inflation in 2025 and the recent move in gilt yields, is what has done the damage.


LAB have been dire so far, however the Tories with nearly a decade and a half in power, left us with the highest tax take in 70 years.

If you read the IFS report on Hunt's last budget, it was crystal clear more tax rises were needed.

Neither LAB, or the Tories were honest on this.

[sikhthetech] 18/11/2024 11:33

Kreature

"Nationwide mortgage rates just went up, ie affordability decreased"

Absolutely.
Mortgage rates increasing, affordability still a problem.

The Chancellor thinks she's helping but I don't think she has a clue.

Starmer saying he'll back the budget 'all day long' doesn't say much for him as well.

As Labour was saying...

The country needs a 'CHANGE'

[jugears] 18/11/2024 11:14

becks, it will pass, it takes time for the markets to settle down, the markets will recover, these opportunities are fantastic for long term investors, Iv'e been making the most of it!
Country file was interesting last night, they were talking about rural housing & the government targets,unfortunately I don't suppose any of the none Uk posters would be able to watch it!

[beckers2008] 18/11/2024 10:43

s,

If it's a hint of positive news, the trolls won't be interested!

£1.30 support may hold over the next couple of days?

Dire Kier's tax and spend party has certainly made it's mark with investors.

[spudders] 18/11/2024 09:03

Interesting write up on SimplyWall St for anyone that wants to look.

[kreature] 18/11/2024 07:26

Vistry…..more ‘Oh dear’

[kreature] 18/11/2024 00:03

Eg Nationwide mortgage rates just went up, ie affordability decreased



And then there’s this which oh dear whatever

[kreature] 17/11/2024 18:31

Definitely lots of reasons to resist buying. I suppose that’s what you mean

[beckers2008] 17/11/2024 18:17

CK,

DvD Follows 'British Bulls' advice, lol!

No wonder it doesn't know the difference between support and resistance, lol!

Evidently, it didn't when it went short at £1.335, and the share price went to £1.60, blowing it's stop loss away, if it had one, lol, just lol!

[cupra kid] 16/11/2024 01:00

DVD is getting all excited because he's close to breaking even on his short. Bless

[danvandan] 15/11/2024 17:13

Wow, still down today, even with all the dividend 're-investment'. Bodes badly for next week. The down-trend is not changing anytime soon.

[essentialinvestor] 15/11/2024 15:15

Dan, you buy a cyclical on a high PE near a cycle low, it's one of the oldest stock market 'rules'.

The time to be more cautious on cyclical stocks is when they sell on low PE's, often in single digits.

[sunshine today] 15/11/2024 15:12

PE of 6 was the going rate for decades as investors knew it was boom and bust.

Banks were also on the same PE for the same reasons.

What’s changed ?

Nothing

Just look up any investment book pre 1970.

[danvandan] 15/11/2024 11:27

TW is paying around £170m today in dividends, and if much of it were being reinvested in shares, we should see a big bounce in the share price today/Monday. So far it's looking very weak with a mere £8m worth of shares traded this morning. The share price at 11am is actually DOWN on yesterday's closing price. Some holders are hanging on grimly, but there is no enthusiasm for this share - sentiment has turned and the share price continues to test 130p support. When the share-payout has worked its way through, I suspect we will see the downward trend resume. Looking at the p/e of almost 19, this feels way too high for this business and its low-quality earnings. The dividend is all that's keeping this up and it's becoming increasingly unsustainable, especially since the vast majority of shareholders have decided to take the money and run. £1 is coming.

[gbh2] 15/11/2024 10:16

Thanks Jugears, It arrived soon after I posed the question, what threw me is that dividends are usually in my IG ISA account at the open.

I like to have the option of chosing what price I pay or where the cash goes so auto reinvestment doesn't suit.

Good luck with your approach, personal choice is the advantage of those that afford it :))

[jugears] 15/11/2024 09:28

gbh2 it is due today but mine are automatically reinvested in shares & as I like share certificates for holdings I plan to keep then it could be another month before I see that!
I wonder what Dum Dummer & Dummest will be doing with theirs, oh you don't get any shorting do you, oh well never mind!looool.

[gbh2] 15/11/2024 09:14

IG unusually slow at paying dividend, just checking it's due today ?

[beckers2008] 15/11/2024 08:20

£1.30, Close is strong support here.

Do you understand that DvD, lol!

Come on Trolls, tell me, when is the UK house price crash going to happen?
You have only been wrong for 6 years!
How many, yes, 6 years, lol, just lol!

[kreature] 14/11/2024 18:53

“ Might be good news for hb's when farmers have to sell small pieces of land off to pay inheritance tax.‘

But not so great for existing land bank values ?